PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Van vs FC Noah Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 1-1
Van
Van
Vs
33%
26%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The clash between Van and FC Noah is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win at 41%. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively match, yet the most probable goal count is two, with a 1-1 scoreline carrying a 11.7% chance. Van, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded, while FC Noah, on the road against a weaker opponent, nets 2.0 and concedes only 0.91. The home win probability sits at 33%, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 41%. In addition to the result, the model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals enjoys an 83.2% likelihood. Both teams have been in contrasting recent form: Van has suffered a 0-4 loss to Shirak, whereas FC Noah comes off a 4-0 victory over Ararat. These narratives underline the fine balance, leaving the outcome uncertain despite the slight edge for the visitors.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, FC Noah, fell short of the expected triumph, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the away side a 41% chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. Van, who had just returned from a heavy 0-4 loss, managed to hold the visitors to a single goal, while FC Noah, on a three-game winning streak, could not convert their momentum into a win. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 83.2% probability, confirming the match’s goal-scoring intensity. The final score of 1-1 settled the game in a balanced draw.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Van win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✗ Miss
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VanVan

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L10W11D00D02L11D61W20W60W10WA·PYU09/05H·WES14/05H·FC 20/05A·BKM24/05H·ARA04/08A·ALA09/08H·GAN16/08A·SHI26/08H·WES31/08A·BKM13/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.601.931.470.871.73
vs Stronger (12)0.752.170.571.861.002.60
vs Similar (18)1.831.223.121.120.801.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W70W00D31W50W01L30W21W13L12LA·SHK18/07H·SLI25/07A·SLI01/08H·AEK06/08A·SHI11/08A·AEK15/08H·RUŽ20/08A·BKM25/08A·RUŽ29/08A·ARA15/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.070.832.710.791.500.88
vs Stronger (2)1.501.003.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (8)1.620.752.750.750.500.75
vs Weaker (20)2.300.852.670.782.000.91
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.7%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
0-0
5.4%
1-0
5.3%
Van goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
01234
05.4%6.1%6.0%3.3%1.4%
15.3%12%8.8%4.9%2.0%
24.7%7.9%6.5%3.6%1.5%
32.3%3.9%3.2%1.8%0.7%
40.9%1.4%1.2%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Van goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
Van is 0.77 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 2.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
Van is 1.20 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 3.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
Van is 0.53 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 0.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VanVan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W11D00D01L10W41W00D40W10WA·PYU09/05H·WES14/05H·FC 20/05A·BKM24/05H·ARA04/08A·ALA09/08H·GAN16/08A·SHI26/08H·WES31/08A·BKM13/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.730.600.330.67
vs Stronger (12)0.250.830.290.570.201.20
vs Similar (18)0.720.501.120.620.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W00D11D20W00D10W10W02L00DA·SHK18/07H·SLI25/07A·SLI01/08H·AEK06/08A·SHI11/08A·AEK15/08H·RUŽ20/08A·BKM25/08A·RUŽ29/08A·ARA15/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.271.290.360.500.19
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (8)0.880.251.500.250.250.25
vs Weaker (20)0.900.251.220.330.640.18
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VanVan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D00D01L01L20W20W20W00DA·PYU09/05H·WES14/05H·FC 20/05A·BKM24/05H·ARA04/08A·ALA09/08H·GAN16/08A·SHI26/08H·WES31/08A·BKM13/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.971.200.870.531.07
vs Stronger (12)0.501.330.291.290.801.40
vs Similar (18)1.110.722.000.500.400.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W00D20W30W01L20W11D11D12LA·SHK18/07H·SLI25/07A·SLI01/08H·AEK06/08A·SHI11/08A·AEK15/08H·RUŽ20/08A·BKM25/08A·RUŽ29/08A·ARA15/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.571.430.431.000.69
vs Stronger (2)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (8)0.750.501.250.500.250.50
vs Weaker (20)1.400.601.440.441.360.73
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.2%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FC Noah
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Matheus Aiás50%
Virgile Pinson17%
Hélder Ferreira17%
Eraldo Cinari0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Sangaré60%
Eraldo Cinari33%
Matheus Aiás33%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan25%
Hélder Ferreira17%
Virgile Pinson0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Virgile Pinson33%
Gonçalo Silva20%
Gonçalo Gregório17%
Eraldo Cinari0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Hélder Ferreira0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Matheus Aiás0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eraldo Cinari33%
Virgile Pinson33%
Matheus Aiás33%
Imran Oulad Omar17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Hélder Ferreira0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Van's squad is €11m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Van's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Van's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€0m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Van's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
VAN wins
3
Draws
5
FN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Van vs FC Noah · H/A from VAN
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/24HVAN Vs FC Noah0-1
04/12/23AFC Noah Vs VAN3-1
30/09/23HVAN Vs FC Noah0-2
29/07/23AFC Noah Vs VAN1-0
04/06/23AFC Noah Vs VAN1-0
17/04/23HVAN Vs FC Noah1-1
20/11/22AFC Noah Vs VAN2-2
02/10/22HVAN Vs FC Noah2-2

VanVan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/24ABKMA Vs VAN0-1
31/08/24HVAN Vs West Armenia6-0
26/08/24AShirak Vs VAN0-2
16/08/24HVAN Vs Gandzasar6-1
09/08/24AAlashkert Vs VAN1-1
04/08/24HVAN Vs Ararat-Armenia0-2
24/05/24ABKMA Vs VAN0-0
20/05/24HVAN Vs FC Urartu1-1
14/05/24HVAN Vs West Armenia1-0
09/05/24APyunik Yerevan Vs VAN3-1

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/24AArarat Vs FN2-1
29/08/24ARužomberok Vs FN3-1
25/08/24ABKMA Vs FN1-2
20/08/24HFN Vs Ružomberok3-0
15/08/24AAEK Athens FC Vs FN1-0
11/08/24AShirak Vs FN0-5
06/08/24HFN Vs AEK Athens FC3-1
01/08/24ASliema Wanderers Vs FN0-0
25/07/24HFN Vs Sliema Wanderers7-0
18/07/24AShkendija Vs FN1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Van
Van
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.02
HomeWDLWW1.32
AwayLDDWW0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%40%16%
AVG goals2.963.242.68
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %50%60%40%
Over 3.5 %38%44%32%
Scored1.121.600.64
Conceded1.841.642.04
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL2.22
HomeWWWWW2.71
AwayWLWLL1.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%88%58%
AVG goals2.863.082.65
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %50%58%42%
Over 3.5 %30%33%27%
Scored2.002.461.58
Conceded0.860.621.08
BTTS40%46%35%
Clean Sheet48%50%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah3075
80%
2.5
9220+72
3.7
90%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5343.10.7
-
2Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3066
70%
2.2
7528+47
3.4
93%
80%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.50.9
-
3FC UrartuFC Urartu3059
60%
2.0
6233+29
3.2
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.11.1
-
4Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3053
57%
1.8
5937+22
3.2
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5VanVan3052
50%
1.7
5636+20
3.1
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
6BKMABKMA3036
33%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.8
-
7ShirakShirak2932
31%
1.1
2750-23
2.7
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
8AraratArarat2929
28%
1.0
3359-26
3.2
86%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.12.0
-
9West ArmeniaWest Armenia2726
30%
1.0
2467-43
3.4
85%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
10AlashkertAlashkert2923
17%
0.8
2152-31
2.5
76%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3120.71.8
-
11GandzasarGandzasar287
4%
0.2
1370-57
3.0
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.52.5
-
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches