Van’s recent slump, highlighted by a 0-4 defeat to Shirak, contrasts sharply with FC Noah’s three-game winning streak that ended in a 4-0 triumph over Ararat. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 46% chance of FC Noah taking the points, a 29% chance for Van, and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.2% probability. Van, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while FC Noah, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.2% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Noah, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. Van, after a rough spell of four straight defeats, had been expected to struggle at home, while FC Noah, riding a three-game winning streak, was tipped to win with a 46% chance. The model’s selection of an away win proved incorrect. The only other suggestion, Over 1.5 goals, missed, despite an 84.2% probability. The final score of 0-0 meant neither side hit their predicted outcome, and the game’s outcome contradicted the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Van win✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✗ Miss
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
1.73
1.40
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
1.80
1.50
1.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.50
1.05
1.89
1.22
1.18
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.13
1.88
0.82
1.69
1.54
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.06
1.40
0.80
1.75
1.38
vs Weaker (10)
2.20
0.90
2.83
0.67
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.4%
Under 2.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
1-3
5.5%
0-0 ✓
5.0%
Van goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.2%
6.5%
3.9%
1.8%
1
4.6%
11%
9.2%
5.5%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.2%
6.5%
3.9%
1.8%
3
1.9%
3.4%
3.1%
1.9%
0.8%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Van goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Van is 0.93 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 2.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Van is 1.26 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Van is 0.78 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.67
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.65
0.78
0.78
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.00
0.41
0.85
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.61
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.60
1.33
0.33
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.87
0.67
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.90
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.40
1.11
0.44
0.73
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.88
0.41
0.85
0.54
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.30
1.50
0.33
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Noah
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Van's squad is €11m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Van's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Van's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€0m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Van's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ararat-Armenia
Pyunik Yerevan
Alashkert
FC Urartu
BKMA
Gandzasar
Shirak
Ararat