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Van vs Shirak Result & Analysis

Date: 09/12/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 4-0
Van
Van
Vs
40%
27%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Shirak
Shirak
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Van face Shirak in a tightly balanced Premier League fixture, with the model favouring a home win at 40%. The draw sits at 27% and the away side’s chances are 33%. The average goal tally for the match is 2.9, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability. Van’s home form shows they average 1.88 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while Shirak, playing away, averages 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selection list contains only one pick: Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.2% chance. Van’s recent run of LDLLL and a 0-4 loss to Shirak contrast with Shirak’s WLWLD and a 4-0 win over Van, adding to the uncertainty. The match remains a fine contest, but the model’s favourite outcome is a Van victory.

Results analysis

Van’s recent form shows a slump, yet the Pythia model still favoured a home win with a 40% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Van triumphed 4-0. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 79.2% chance, reflecting the high-scoring outcome. The match confirmed the model’s forecast: the favoured result landed and the selection came in. Van’s 4-0 victory extended a difficult run, while Shirak, fresh from a win, suffered a heavy defeat. The final score of 4-0 matched the actual result, and the model’s pick was right.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Van win✓ Hit
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak win✗ Miss
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VanVan

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-702L02L21W12L02L06L41W22D17L13LH·FC 30/09A·SHI03/10H·ALA20/10A·ARA24/10H·ARA28/10A·PYU02/11H·WES07/11H·FC 12/11A·BKM30/11A·FC 04/12
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.972.371.471.670.473.07
vs Stronger (14)0.433.000.502.830.383.12
vs Similar (15)1.271.931.881.000.573.00
vs Weaker (1)4.000.004.000.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShirakShirak

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W31W02L22D00D12L02L11D12LH·WES30/09H·VAN03/10A·BKM21/10H·FC 26/10A·FC 30/10A·ALA04/11H·ARA08/11A·ARA11/11H·PYU28/11H·WES05/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.670.591.531.151.85
vs Stronger (19)0.792.050.452.001.252.12
vs Similar (11)0.911.000.830.671.001.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.7%
Under 2.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
Van goals ↓
Shirak goals →
01234
06.8%6.5%5.2%2.4%0.8%
17.4%13%7.9%3.6%1.2%
26.5%8.8%6.0%2.7%0.9%
33.3%4.5%3.0%1.4%0.5%
41.2%1.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Van goals (down), columns = Shirak goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Van is 0.03 points worse than Shirak in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 0.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Van is 0.11 goals better than Shirak in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 0.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Van is 0.58 goals worse than Shirak in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VanVan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L10W10W00D02L01L01L03L02LH·FC 30/09A·SHI03/10H·ALA20/10A·ARA24/10H·ARA28/10A·PYU02/11H·WES07/11H·FC 12/11A·BKM30/11A·FC 04/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.900.330.530.271.27
vs Stronger (14)0.141.070.000.670.251.38
vs Similar (15)0.400.800.500.500.291.14
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShirakShirak

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W21W02L11D00D01L00D01L01LH·WES30/09H·VAN03/10A·BKM21/10H·FC 26/10A·FC 30/10A·ALA04/11H·ARA08/11A·ARA11/11H·PYU28/11H·WES05/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.800.120.650.541.00
vs Stronger (19)0.210.950.000.910.501.00
vs Similar (11)0.450.550.330.170.601.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VanVan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L11D02L02L04L40W21W14L11DH·FC 30/09A·SHI03/10H·ALA20/10A·ARA24/10H·ARA28/10A·PYU02/11H·WES07/11H·FC 12/11A·BKM30/11A·FC 04/12
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.471.131.130.201.80
vs Stronger (14)0.291.930.502.170.121.75
vs Similar (15)0.871.131.380.500.291.86
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShirakShirak

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W00D11D00D11D02L10W11DH·WES30/09H·VAN03/10A·BKM21/10H·FC 26/10A·FC 30/10A·ALA04/11H·ARA08/11A·ARA11/11H·PYU28/11H·WES05/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.870.470.880.620.85
vs Stronger (19)0.581.110.451.090.751.12
vs Similar (11)0.450.450.500.500.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Van's squad is €1m less valuable than Shirak's (€2m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Van and Shirak have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Van and Shirak have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Van and Shirak have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
VAN wins
1
Draws
2
SHI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Van vs Shirak · H/A from VAN
DateH/AGameScore
03/10/23AShirak Vs VAN2-0
05/08/23HVAN Vs Shirak1-0
26/05/23HVAN Vs Shirak3-0
01/04/23AShirak Vs VAN1-0
09/11/22HVAN Vs Shirak2-1
08/09/22AShirak Vs VAN1-1

VanVan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/12/23AFC Noah Vs VAN3-1
30/11/23ABKMA Vs VAN7-1
12/11/23HVAN Vs FC Urartu2-2
07/11/23HVAN Vs West Armenia4-1
02/11/23APyunik Yerevan Vs VAN6-0
28/10/23HVAN Vs Ararat-Armenia0-2
24/10/23AArarat Vs VAN2-1
20/10/23HVAN Vs Alashkert2-1
03/10/23AShirak Vs VAN2-0
30/09/23HVAN Vs FC Noah0-2

ShirakShirak

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/12/23HSHI Vs West Armenia1-2
28/11/23HSHI Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-1
11/11/23AArarat-Armenia Vs SHI2-0
08/11/23HSHI Vs Ararat1-2
04/11/23AAlashkert Vs SHI0-0
30/10/23AFC Urartu Vs SHI2-2
26/10/23HSHI Vs FC Noah0-2
21/10/23ABKMA Vs SHI1-3
03/10/23HSHI Vs Van2-0
30/09/23HSHI Vs West Armenia0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Van
Van
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL0.82
HomeLWLWD1.08
AwayLLLLL0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%31%12%
AVG goals3.002.883.12
Over 1.5 %80%81%79%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %40%35%46%
Scored0.961.150.75
Conceded2.041.732.38
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet16%15%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Shirak
Shirak
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDL0.90
HomeWLLDL0.77
AwayLWDDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%19%29%
AVG goals2.442.232.67
Over 1.5 %66%69%62%
Over 2.5 %44%31%58%
Over 3.5 %26%19%33%
Scored0.840.691.00
Conceded1.601.541.67
BTTS38%35%42%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3682
67%
2.3
8428+56
3.1
86%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.30.8
-
2FC NoahFC Noah3680
72%
2.2
6933+36
2.8
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5341.90.9
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3675
64%
2.1
7334+39
3.0
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.00.9
-
4FC UrartuFC Urartu3650
36%
1.4
4949+0
2.7
81%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
5AlashkertAlashkert3645
36%
1.2
5456-2
3.1
81%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.51.6
-
6AraratArarat3645
36%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.11.4
-
7West ArmeniaWest Armenia3637
31%
1.0
4373-30
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8ShirakShirak3633
22%
0.9
2846-18
2.1
56%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.3
-
9VanVan3632
22%
0.9
3267-35
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
10BKMABKMA3627
19%
0.8
3267-35
2.8
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.9
-
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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