Van’s recent slump, highlighted by a 0-4 loss to Shirak, sets the tone for this Premier League clash, yet the model still favours a home win. The odds favour Van with a 59% chance, a draw sits at 23%, and Shirak’s 18% chance of victory is the least likely. The expected total of 3.1 goals translates into an average of just over three goals, but the most probable total is two, with a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% chance.
Van’s home form shows a balanced 1.83 goals scored and conceded against similar opposition, while Shirak’s away record is 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s only selection is Over 1.5, with an 83% probability, and it is the sole edge offered.
In summary, the match is projected to finish 1-1, Van winning the fixture, with the probabilities of a home win, draw, and away win standing at 59%, 23%, and 18% respectively.
Results analysis
Van’s 1-0 win over Shirak was a stark contrast to the model’s expectations, with the total goals falling well below the predicted 3.1. The pre-match favourite was Van, with a 59% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The suggested pick “Over 1.5” at 83% probability missed, as only one goal was scored. Van’s recent form shows a win extending their run, while Shirak, coming off a win, could not replicate that momentum. The match finished 1-0, confirming the home win and underscoring the model’s accurate prediction of the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Van win✓ Hit
59.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.50
1.57
0.94
1.44
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.79
1.25
1.38
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.25
1.83
1.83
1.10
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.97
0.93
1.40
0.73
2.53
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
2.10
0.70
1.20
0.60
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.70
1.40
1.80
1.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0 ✓
8.0%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.3%
0-0
5.3%
Van goals ↓
Shirak goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.0%
11%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.3%
6.8%
3.7%
1.3%
0.4%
4
3.3%
3.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Van goals (down), columns = Shirak goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Van is 0.67 points better than Shirak in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 0.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Van is 0.37 goals better than Shirak in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Van is 0.41 goals better than Shirak in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.64
0.57
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.79
0.62
0.25
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.81
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.40
0.53
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (20)
0.35
0.90
0.20
0.50
0.50
1.30
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.86
1.00
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.00
0.62
1.12
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.44
1.17
0.83
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.20
0.53
0.87
0.27
1.53
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
1.20
0.50
0.70
0.10
1.70
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Van's squad is €1m less valuable than Shirak's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Van and Shirak have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Van and Shirak have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Van and Shirak have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ararat-Armenia
FC Noah
Pyunik Yerevan
Alashkert
FC Urartu
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat