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Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 06/08/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 0-3
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
11%
24%
64%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
64.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D01L01L15L32W11D40W11D11DA·PAI21/05H·FC 24/05H·LAA28/05A·KAL06/06H·FLO10/06A·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.530.861.861.061.25
vs Stronger (13)0.772.231.142.710.331.67
vs Similar (17)1.121.000.571.001.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W20W21W00D30W30W12L12L00DA·VAP24/05H·KAL28/05A·KUR06/06H·TAL11/06H·FLO28/06H·TRA01/07H·KAL09/07A·ŽIL13/07H·ŽIL20/07A·TAM23/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.702.070.641.310.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.330.831.500.831.170.83
vs Weaker (18)1.890.612.500.501.400.70
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.5%
0-2
14.5%
1-1
11.0%
0-0
10.4%
1-2
8.8%
0-3 ✓
8.5%
1-3
5.2%
1-0
4.7%
Vaprus goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
01234
010%15%14%8.5%3.7%
14.7%11%8.8%5.2%2.3%
21.7%3.1%2.7%1.6%0.7%
30.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
40.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Vaprus is 0.81 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Vaprus is 0.75 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Vaprus is 0.53 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 0.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L01L11D11D01L20W00D00DA·PAI21/05H·FC 24/05H·LAA28/05A·KAL06/06H·FLO10/06A·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.430.640.380.69
vs Stronger (13)0.311.080.571.000.001.17
vs Similar (17)0.470.350.290.290.600.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W00D11D00D10W30W01L12L00DA·VAP24/05H·KAL28/05A·KUR06/06H·TAL11/06H·FLO28/06H·TRA01/07H·KAL09/07A·ŽIL13/07H·ŽIL20/07A·TAM23/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.371.360.360.500.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.750.331.330.330.170.33
vs Weaker (18)1.000.391.380.380.700.40
Clean sheet %70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D00D00D04L21W10W20W11D11DA·PAI21/05H·FC 24/05H·LAA28/05A·KAL06/06H·FLO10/06A·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.431.210.690.56
vs Stronger (13)0.461.150.571.710.330.50
vs Similar (17)0.650.650.290.710.900.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W10W00D20W00D11D00D00DA·VAP24/05H·KAL28/05A·KUR06/06H·TAL11/06H·FLO28/06H·TRA01/07H·KAL09/07A·ŽIL13/07H·ŽIL20/07A·TAM23/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.330.710.290.810.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.580.500.170.501.000.50
vs Weaker (18)0.890.221.120.120.700.30
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
0
VAP wins
2
Draws
4
FLT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/23HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-0
05/03/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP0-0
29/10/22HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-3
12/08/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP3-0
16/06/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP4-1
05/03/22HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-8

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/23AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP1-1
22/07/23ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-1
08/07/23ATrans Narva Vs VAP0-4
30/06/23HVAP Vs Paide1-1
27/06/23ATammeka Vs VAP2-3
10/06/23HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-5
06/06/23AKalju Nomme Vs VAP1-0
28/05/23HVAP Vs Laagri0-1
24/05/23HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-0
21/05/23APaide Vs VAP0-1

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/23ATammeka Vs FLT0-0
20/07/23HFLT Vs Žilina1-2
13/07/23AŽilina Vs FLT2-1
09/07/23HFLT Vs Kalju Nomme3-0
01/07/23HFLT Vs Trans Narva3-0
28/06/23HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn0-0
11/06/23HFLT Vs Tallinna Kalev2-1
06/06/23AKuressaare Vs FLT0-2
28/05/23HFLT Vs Kalju Nomme2-1
24/05/23AVaprus Vs FLT0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDD0.78
HomeLDLLD0.75
AwayLWWDD0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%17%23%
AVG goals2.942.833.04
Over 1.5 %68%67%69%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %34%29%38%
Scored0.960.960.96
Conceded1.981.882.08
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.94
HomeWDWWL1.92
AwayDDWLD1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%56%56%
AVG goals2.643.002.28
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %52%64%40%
Over 3.5 %22%24%20%
Scored1.762.001.52
Conceded0.881.000.76
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet48%40%56%
Corners10.008.0012.00
Cards5.676.005.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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