In the Estonia: Meistriliiga matchup between Vaprus and FC Levadia Tallinn, recent form suggests a closely contested match. Vaprus is coming off a draw against FC Levadia Tallinn, while FC Levadia Tallinn is looking to build on a 5-0 win against Nõmme United.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring in 22% of simulations. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.5%.
Vaprus has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1 goal per match while conceding 2.14. In contrast, FC Levadia Tallinn has excelled on the road, scoring 2.71 goals per match and conceding just 1.14.
The model's selection for the match result is an away win, with a probability of 52%. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 52%. The model's selection for over 1.5 goals is the most likely outcome, with an 85.3% probability.
Results analysis
A surprise in Estonia as FC Levadia Tallinn drew 1-1 against Vaprus, extending their recent winning streak. The away team's form note reads: 'coming off a win, having beaten Nõmme United 5-0'. This result is a shock, as FC Levadia Tallinn were the pre-match favourite, with a 52% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, also an away win, was incorrect. The model's actual call was wrong. The model's selection of an away win carried a 52% probability. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 85.3% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vaprus win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 11.0% · @ 8.20
Edge
+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.10
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
888Sport
8.50
Draw✓ Hit
23.7%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.38
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.11
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
10Bet
5.60
FC Levadia Tallinn win✗ Miss
51.7%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.25
Edge
-20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Dafabet
1.28
SBO
1.27
William Hil
1.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.53
1.73
1.33
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.08
0.83
2.17
1.14
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.21
1.36
2.50
0.88
1.83
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.17
1.93
1.20
2.53
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.62
1.14
1.71
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
2.76
0.82
2.62
0.75
2.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
@ 1.08+1.5%
Under 1.5
14.7%
@ 5.64-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.5%
@ 1.36-2.4%
Under 2.5
35.5%
@ 2.75+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Under
888Sport
2.90
10Bet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
@ 1.94-5.0%
Under 3.5
57.6%
@ 1.75+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.07
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.5%
@ 1.69+10.5%
No
35.5%
@ 1.99-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.83
Unibet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
No
888Sport
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.5%@ 10.18+6.4%
1-2
9.5%@ 7.85+4.1%
0-2
7.1%@ 6.96+1.0%
2-1
6.4%@ 21.91+4.5%
2-2
6.3%@ 16.03+3.7%
1-3
6.3%@ 8.82+1.5%
0-1
6.2%@ 8.99+1.5%
0-3
4.7%@ 7.84-0.7%
Vaprus goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
6.2%
7.1%
4.7%
2.3%
1
3.9%
11%
9.5%
6.3%
3.1%
2
3.2%
6.4%
6.3%
4.2%
2.1%
3
1.4%
2.8%
2.8%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Paide
1.83
Tammeka
1.80
Laagri
1.29
Vaprus
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Kuressaare
0.88
Nõmme United
0.86
Vaprus is 1.17 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.86
Flora Tallinn
1.83
Vaprus
1.57
Tammeka
1.20
Nõmme United
1.14
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Vaprus is 1.10 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.71
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.17
Laagri
1.43
Paide
1.50
Kuressaare
1.62
Vaprus
1.86
Trans Narva
2.14
Tammeka
2.20
Nõmme United
2.57
Vaprus is 1.02 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.00
0.93
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.15
0.50
1.83
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.64
1.38
0.38
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.54
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.29
1.25
0.38
1.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.73
0.40
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.92
0.33
0.33
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.71
1.12
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
0.93
0.80
1.13
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.08
0.43
1.29
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.53
1.38
0.38
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.3%
1.08
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
+1.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
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Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Laagri
Tammeka
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United