Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Result & Analysis

The model rates Flora Tallinn as the clear favourite, assigning a 72% chance of an away win. This high probability reflects their dominant away form, scoring an average of 3.5 goals per match against weaker opposition while conceding none, compared with Vaprus’s weak home record of 0.5 goals scored and 5.5 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 4.0 goals and a most likely total of 6+ (22% probability) underline the expectation of a high-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 8.5% chance. Vaprus, coming off a draw in their last match, faces an opponent who has won 72% of their recent games, further tipping the balance. The model’s suggested picks are: Over 1.5 goals at 91.7% (hit), Over 2.5 goals at 76.8% (miss), and Away win at 72.2% (hit). The home win probability stands at 12%, the draw at 16%, and the away win at 72%.

The win extends Flora Tallinn’s run, as their last five were LLWLL, and the match ended 0-2, an away victory that matched the model’s favourite. The Pythia model had picked Away win with a 72.2% probability, and this call proved correct. The total goals fell far below the expected 4.0; the most likely total was 6+ at 22% confidence, yet only two goals were scored. The suggested picks were: Over 1.5 at 91.7% - hit; Over 2.5 at 76.8% - missed; and Away win at 72.2% - hit. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the model’s prediction of an away triumph.