Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Result & Analysis

Vaprus arrive at home after a shaky run that saw them draw their last match, while Flora Tallinn, fresh from a win, have been dominating on the road, scoring three goals per game and conceding less than a goal. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, giving it an 82% probability and a 6% chance for a home win against the 12% draw odds. The expected total is 3.9 goals, with the most likely total being three, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-3 for Flora Tallinn at 10.3%. Vaprus average 0.33 goals scored and 3.17 conceded at home against stronger teams, whereas Flora Tallinn average 3.0 scored and 0.7 conceded away against weaker opponents. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 90.3%, Away win at 82.3%, and Over 2.5 at 74.2%. The model’s selection of an away win is reinforced by Flora Tallinn’s strong away form and Vaprus’s poor home record.

The win for Flora Tallinn extends their impressive run, as they finished the match 1-7, confirming the model’s predicted away victory. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was assigned an 82.3% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Over 1.5, with a 90.3% chance, hit; Away win, at 82.3%, also hit; and Over 2.5, at 74.2%, hit as well. The most likely scoreline of 0-3, with a 20% probability, was surpassed by the actual 1-7 outcome, while the predicted total of 3.9 goals was exceeded. The home side, Vaprus, struggled, conceding over three goals, whereas Flora Tallinn’s away form - scoring an average of three goals and conceding less than one - proved decisive.