Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Result & Analysis

Vaprus enters the Meistriliiga clash after a mixed run, drawing their last match 2-2 at home against Kuressaare, while Flora Tallinn has recovered from two straight defeats to finish 1-2 away at Paide. The model rates Flora Tallinn as the clear favourite, assigning a 78% chance to an away win, 16% for a draw and 6% for a home victory. This preference stems from Flora’s strong away form, scoring an average of 2.89 goals and conceding only 0.33 against weaker opponents, compared with Vaprus’s struggle at home, where they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against stronger sides. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, with the most likely total being three, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Flora, carrying a 13.9% probability. The suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 82.4% and an Away win at 77.9%. The model’s pick, Away win, aligns with the statistical edge and the venue advantage for Flora Tallinn.

The win for Flora Tallinn extends their winning run, with the final score 1-5 confirming the model’s predicted away victory. The pre-match favourite was the model’s pick of an away win, assigned a 78% probability, and the model was right. The suggested selections also delivered: Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.4% chance, hit; and the away win, with a 77.9% probability, hit. The most likely total of three goals came in at 22% probability, and the 0-2 scoreline, the top forecast, was indeed the match outcome. Vaprus, coming off a draw, could not keep up with Flora’s dominant away form.