Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Result & Analysis

Vaprus enter the match on a shaky 0-2 draw against Kuressaare, while Flora Tallinn have rebounded from two straight defeats to a 1-2 loss to Paide, suggesting a turnaround for the visitors. The model rates an away win as the clear favourite, with a 74% probability, reflecting Flora’s strong away form - averaging 2.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opponents - against Vaprus’s weaker home record of 1.14 scored and 2.14 conceded. The expected total goals hover at 3.2, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Flora, with a 12.2% chance. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 9% home win, 17% draw, and 74% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5, with an 83.5% chance, and the Away win itself at 73.7%, the edge for the latter being 73.7% minus 74%? (the model shows it as a hit).

Vaprus entered the match coming off a draw, while Flora Tallinn, after two straight defeats, had already begun a winning streak. The final score was 0-1, confirming an away win that matched the model’s favourite, which had a 74% probability. The model’s prediction was correct. The total goals, 1, fell far below the expected 3.2 and the most likely total of 3. The model’s selections included Over 1.5, with an 83.5% probability, which missed, and the Away win, with a 73.7% probability, which hit. The outcome was clear and decisive, leaving the model’s forecast largely accurate.