Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with Kalju Nomme winning 56% of the time, a draw 26% and a Vaprus victory only 19%. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.3% chance. Vaprus, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 2.5, while Kalju Nomme, on the road against a weaker opponent, scores 2.0 and concedes 1.22. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 75.8% (hit) and Under 3.5 at 71.9% (miss). The home win percentage is 19%, the draw 26% and the away win 56%. The recent form shows Vaprus coming off a draw after a 2-2 tie with Kuressaare, whereas Kalju Nomme has won three of its last five after two straight defeats, including a 2-3 win over FC Levadia Tallinn.

The final score was 0-4, confirming the model’s prediction that Kalju Nomme would win. The win extends Kalju Nomme’s five-match run of four victories and one defeat, while Vaprus comes off a draw after a string of losses and draws. The model’s favourite was “Away win” with a 56% probability, and it was correct. The suggested picks were “Over 1.5” at 75.8% and “Under 3.5” at 71.9%. The former hit, as four goals were scored, while the latter missed because the total exceeded three. Overall, the model’s selections performed well, delivering a decisive away triumph.