The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance of Kalju Nomme triumphing, a 28% draw probability, and a 27% chance of Vaprus taking the field. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% chance. Vaprus, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.86 conceded, while Kalju Nomme, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.6 scored and 0.7 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.0%), Away +2 handicap (89.1%), and Under 4.5 (87.8%). Vaprus recently drew 2-2 with Kuressaare, while Kalju Nomme secured a 2-3 win over FC Levadia Tallinn after two straight defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vaprus win
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win
46.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.47
2.50
1.08
1.89
1.72
vs Stronger (18)
1.94
1.67
2.14
1.43
1.82
1.82
vs Similar (12)
2.42
1.17
3.00
0.60
2.00
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.97
2.13
1.20
2.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.75
1.08
1.57
1.29
4.40
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.89
2.62
1.12
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
8.7%
0-2
8.6%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
Vaprus goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
10%
8.6%
4.3%
1.6%
1
6.8%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.3%
6.6%
5.0%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Vaprus is 0.75 points worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Vaprus is 0.38 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Vaprus is 0.88 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vaprus or Draw
53.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
46%
covers Vaprus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus or Kalju Nomme
71.9%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
46%
covers Vaprus + Kalju Nomme
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kalju Nomme
74.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
46%
covers Draw + Kalju Nomme
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
Under
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vaprus, so a minus line means Vaprus give that many goals of a start and Kalju Nomme receive them. At -1, Vaprus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vaprus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vaprus)
Vaprus -2
3.0%
Draw -2
7.2%
Kalju Nomme +2
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vaprus)
Vaprus -1
10.3%
Draw -1
15.5%
Kalju Nomme +1
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vaprus)
Vaprus +1
53.8%
Draw +1
22.3%
Kalju Nomme -1
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vaprus)
Vaprus +2
76.1%
Draw +2
14.3%
Kalju Nomme -2
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.42
0.75
1.06
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.89
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.82
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.92
1.80
0.40
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.43
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.25
0.25
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.08
0.33
0.83
0.72
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.78
1.00
0.43
0.82
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.25
1.20
0.20
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.58
0.86
0.86
2.20
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.38
0.88
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Vaprus's squad is €2m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Vaprus's defence is €1m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€1m vs €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Paide
Laagri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United