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Vaprus vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 3-1
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
28%
27%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✓ Hit
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L32W11D40W11D11D03L33D00D40WH·FLO10/06A·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07H·FC 06/08H·KAL19/08A·TAM26/08A·LAA02/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.330.931.791.310.94
vs Stronger (13)0.921.851.252.250.401.20
vs Similar (17)1.290.940.501.171.730.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W11D31W04L31W04L02L21W14L11DH·TRA27/06A·LAA01/07A·TAL08/07H·PAI23/07H·TAM31/07A·FLO04/08A·TRA13/08H·FC 20/08A·KAL27/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.671.201.731.131.60
vs Stronger (13)0.772.620.862.570.672.67
vs Similar (17)1.470.941.501.001.440.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
7.6%
0-0
7.2%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
Vaprus goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
01234
07.2%8.4%7.6%4.1%1.6%
16.2%13%9.3%4.9%2.0%
24.5%7.1%5.7%3.0%1.2%
31.8%2.9%2.3%1.2%0.5%
40.6%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Vaprus is 0.14 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.19).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Vaprus is 0.11 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Vaprus is 0.47 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D01L20W00D00D02L02L00D20WH·FLO10/06A·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07H·FC 06/08H·KAL19/08A·TAM26/08A·LAA02/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.360.710.500.50
vs Stronger (13)0.311.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.530.290.170.330.730.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L20W02L11D02L00D20W12L11DH·TRA27/06A·LAA01/07A·TAL08/07H·PAI23/07H·TAM31/07A·FLO04/08A·TRA13/08H·FC 20/08A·KAL27/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.770.600.730.400.80
vs Stronger (13)0.461.380.571.290.331.50
vs Similar (17)0.530.290.620.250.440.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L21W10W20W11D11D01L31W00D20WH·FLO10/06A·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07H·FC 06/08H·KAL19/08A·TAM26/08A·LAA02/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.571.070.810.44
vs Stronger (13)0.620.850.751.250.400.20
vs Similar (17)0.760.650.330.831.000.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W11D02L20W02L02L01L02L00DH·TRA27/06A·LAA01/07A·TAL08/07H·PAI23/07H·TAM31/07A·FLO04/08A·TRA13/08H·FC 20/08A·KAL27/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.601.000.730.80
vs Stronger (13)0.311.230.291.290.331.17
vs Similar (17)0.940.650.880.751.000.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
VAP wins
0
Draws
4
KUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Kuressaare · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/23HVAP Vs Kuressaare1-2
19/03/23AKuressaare Vs VAP1-2
06/11/22AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0
06/08/22HVAP Vs Kuressaare0-1
06/05/22HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-1
03/04/22AKuressaare Vs VAP3-2

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23ALaagri Vs VAP0-4
26/08/23ATammeka Vs VAP0-0
19/08/23HVAP Vs Kalju Nomme3-3
06/08/23HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-3
28/07/23AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP1-1
22/07/23ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-1
08/07/23ATrans Narva Vs VAP0-4
30/06/23HVAP Vs Paide1-1
27/06/23ATammeka Vs VAP2-3
10/06/23HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-5

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23HKUR Vs Tammeka1-1
27/08/23AKalju Nomme Vs KUR4-1
20/08/23HKUR Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-1
13/08/23ATrans Narva Vs KUR2-0
04/08/23AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR4-0
31/07/23HKUR Vs Tammeka3-1
23/07/23HKUR Vs Paide0-4
08/07/23ATallinna Kalev Vs KUR1-3
01/07/23ALaagri Vs KUR1-1
27/06/23HKUR Vs Trans Narva3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDW0.82
HomeLLDLD0.67
AwayWDDDW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%12%27%
AVG goals2.883.002.77
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %34%29%38%
Scored1.000.961.04
Conceded1.882.041.73
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet20%17%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.32
HomeWLWWD1.35
AwayDWLLL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%35%33%
AVG goals2.882.962.79
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %36%35%38%
Scored1.301.421.17
Conceded1.581.541.62
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet26%27%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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