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Vaprus vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Date: 17/03/2024
Time: 10:30
Final 3-2
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
37%
29%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✓ Hit
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W01L11D01L00D00D20W01L03L01LH·TRA27/09H·FLO01/10A·KAL07/10A·TAL21/10H·LAA27/10A·FC 01/11H·TAM05/11A·KUR11/11H·PAI03/03A·TAM09/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.231.001.711.190.81
vs Stronger (13)0.621.690.712.290.501.00
vs Similar (17)1.470.881.291.141.600.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L11D03L01L10W10W11D10W06L06LH·KAL26/09H·TAL01/10A·FLO07/10A·PAI22/10H·TRA28/10A·TAM01/11H·LAA04/11H·VAP11/11H·KAL02/03H·FC 09/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.832.030.942.120.711.93
vs Stronger (14)0.293.290.383.500.173.00
vs Similar (16)1.310.941.500.751.121.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.0%
0-1
8.0%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
5.9%
Vaprus goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
01234
08.4%8.0%5.9%2.5%0.8%
18.5%14%8.0%3.4%1.1%
26.6%8.4%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.0%3.8%2.4%1.0%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Vaprus is 0.03 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Vaprus is 0.31 goals worse than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Vaprus is 0.28 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D10W01L00D00D10W00D00D01LH·TRA27/09H·FLO01/10A·KAL07/10A·TAL21/10H·LAA27/10A·FC 01/11H·TAM05/11A·KUR11/11H·PAI03/03A·TAM09/03
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.290.500.500.50
vs Stronger (13)0.150.770.140.860.170.67
vs Similar (17)0.590.290.430.140.700.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D01L00D00D00D01L00D03L02LH·KAL26/09H·TAL01/10A·FLO07/10A·PAI22/10H·TRA28/10A·TAM01/11H·LAA04/11H·VAP11/11H·KAL02/03H·FC 09/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.870.441.000.290.71
vs Stronger (14)0.211.360.251.500.171.17
vs Similar (16)0.500.440.620.500.380.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L01L00D00D00D10W01L03L00DH·TRA27/09H·FLO01/10A·KAL07/10A·TAL21/10H·LAA27/10A·FC 01/11H·TAM05/11A·KUR11/11H·PAI03/03A·TAM09/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.711.210.690.31
vs Stronger (13)0.460.920.571.430.330.33
vs Similar (17)0.880.590.861.000.900.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D02L01L10W10W10W10W03L04LH·KAL26/09H·TAL01/10A·FLO07/10A·PAI22/10H·TRA28/10A·TAM01/11H·LAA04/11H·VAP11/11H·KAL02/03H·FC 09/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.170.501.120.431.21
vs Stronger (14)0.071.930.122.000.001.83
vs Similar (16)0.810.500.880.250.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
VAP wins
0
Draws
5
KUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Kuressaare · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/23AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0
17/09/23HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-1
03/05/23HVAP Vs Kuressaare1-2
19/03/23AKuressaare Vs VAP1-2
06/11/22AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0
06/08/22HVAP Vs Kuressaare0-1
06/05/22HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-1
03/04/22AKuressaare Vs VAP3-2

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24ATammeka Vs VAP1-0
03/03/24HVAP Vs Paide0-3
11/11/23AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0
05/11/23HVAP Vs Tammeka2-0
01/11/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP0-0
27/10/23HVAP Vs Laagri0-0
21/10/23ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-0
07/10/23AKalju Nomme Vs VAP1-1
01/10/23HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn0-1
27/09/23HVAP Vs Trans Narva3-2

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24HKUR Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-6
02/03/24HKUR Vs Kalju Nomme0-6
11/11/23HKUR Vs Vaprus1-0
04/11/23HKUR Vs Laagri1-1
01/11/23ATammeka Vs KUR0-1
28/10/23HKUR Vs Trans Narva1-0
22/10/23APaide Vs KUR1-0
07/10/23AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR3-0
01/10/23HKUR Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
26/09/23HKUR Vs Kalju Nomme0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.02
HomeWLDWL0.96
AwayDLDLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.422.842.00
Over 1.5 %60%68%52%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored0.961.040.88
Conceded1.461.801.12
BTTS38%48%28%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.22
HomeWDWLL1.23
AwayLLLLW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%31%33%
AVG goals2.943.002.88
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Over 3.5 %36%35%38%
Scored1.141.151.12
Conceded1.801.851.75
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet22%23%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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