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Vaprus vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
56%
24%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✗ Miss
56.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win✓ Hit
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-821W81W31W10W03L41W10W21W01L11DA·KAL10/08H·TAM15/08A·FC 22/08H·PAI30/08A·FLO13/09A·TAM16/09H·TAL21/09A·LAA27/09A·KAL05/10A·TRA18/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.271.711.361.751.19
vs Stronger (11)1.091.641.001.801.171.50
vs Similar (19)2.111.052.111.112.101.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L15L12L02L21W12L00D10W11D03LH·LAA09/08A·PAI16/08H·FLO24/08A·KAL31/08H·TAL14/09A·LAA17/09H·TRA20/09A·TAM26/09H·PAI04/10H·FC 18/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.001.061.620.712.43
vs Stronger (13)0.542.620.672.170.433.00
vs Similar (17)1.181.531.301.301.001.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.5%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
5.9%
3-0
5.9%
1-2
5.5%
Vaprus goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
01234
05.9%4.3%2.9%1.0%0.3%
18.5%11%5.5%2.0%0.5%
29.2%9.9%5.4%1.9%0.5%
35.9%6.4%3.5%1.2%0.3%
42.9%3.1%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Vaprus is 0.47 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.89).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Vaprus is 0.58 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.92).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Vaprus is 0.35 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.76).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W30W10W01L31W10W21W00D01LA·KAL10/08H·TAM15/08A·FC 22/08H·PAI30/08A·FLO13/09A·TAM16/09H·TAL21/09A·LAA27/09A·KAL05/10A·TRA18/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.571.000.711.120.44
vs Stronger (11)0.820.730.801.200.830.33
vs Similar (19)1.210.471.110.441.300.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L13L12L00D01L01L00D00D00D03LH·LAA09/08A·PAI16/08H·FLO24/08A·KAL31/08H·TAL14/09A·LAA17/09H·TRA20/09A·TAM26/09H·PAI04/10H·FC 18/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.501.000.500.93
vs Stronger (13)0.311.150.171.170.431.14
vs Similar (17)0.650.820.700.900.570.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D41W01L00D02L10W00D00D01L10WA·KAL10/08H·TAM15/08A·FC 22/08H·PAI30/08A·FLO13/09A·TAM16/09H·TAL21/09A·LAA27/09A·KAL05/10A·TRA18/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.710.640.620.75
vs Stronger (11)0.270.910.200.600.331.17
vs Similar (19)0.890.581.000.670.800.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D02L20W11D00D10W11D00DH·LAA09/08A·PAI16/08H·FLO24/08A·KAL31/08H·TAL14/09A·LAA17/09H·TRA20/09A·TAM26/09H·PAI04/10H·FC 18/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.030.560.620.211.50
vs Stronger (13)0.231.460.501.000.001.86
vs Similar (17)0.530.710.600.400.431.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Kuressaare have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
VAP wins
2
Draws
3
KUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Kuressaare · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/25AKuressaare Vs VAP2-1
01/06/25HVAP Vs Kuressaare2-1
18/04/25AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0
06/10/24HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-1
28/07/24AKuressaare Vs VAP1-1
28/05/24AKuressaare Vs VAP2-2
17/03/24HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-2
11/11/23AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25ATrans Narva Vs VAP1-1
05/10/25AKalju Nomme Vs VAP1-0
27/09/25ALaagri Vs VAP1-2
21/09/25HVAP Vs Tallinna Kalev1-0
16/09/25ATammeka Vs VAP1-4
13/09/25AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP3-0
30/08/25HVAP Vs Paide1-0
22/08/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP1-3
15/08/25HVAP Vs Tammeka8-1
10/08/25AKalju Nomme Vs VAP1-2

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25HKUR Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-3
04/10/25HKUR Vs Paide1-1
26/09/25ATammeka Vs KUR0-1
20/09/25HKUR Vs Trans Narva0-0
17/09/25ALaagri Vs KUR2-1
14/09/25HKUR Vs Tallinna Kalev2-1
31/08/25AKalju Nomme Vs KUR2-0
24/08/25HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
16/08/25APaide Vs KUR5-1
09/08/25HKUR Vs Laagri1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.36
HomeDDWWW1.29
AwayLWWLD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals2.722.882.58
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %28%33%23%
Scored1.401.421.38
Conceded1.321.461.19
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWDL0.82
HomeLWDDL0.96
AwayLLLLW0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%27%17%
AVG goals2.962.693.25
Over 1.5 %84%81%88%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %28%19%38%
Scored1.081.121.04
Conceded1.881.582.21
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet18%15%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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