Vaprus are tipped to win the Meistriliiga clash against Laagri, with a 49% chance of a home victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an away win. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 11.5% chance. Vaprus, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, have averaged 2.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Laagri, on the road, average 1.67 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6% and Under 5.5 at 90.5%. Vaprus have come off a draw, while Laagri are riding a two-game winning streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vaprus win
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.47
2.50
1.08
1.89
1.72
vs Stronger (18)
1.94
1.67
2.14
1.43
1.82
1.82
vs Similar (12)
2.42
1.17
3.00
0.60
2.00
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.77
1.47
3.67
1.22
1.42
1.83
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
1.85
2.11
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (16)
2.31
1.25
2.62
0.88
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
26.00
0.00
26.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.4%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
5.5%
Vaprus goals ↓
Laagri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.7%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.1%
12%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.5%
5.8%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.0%
2.6%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Vaprus is 0.50 points worse than Laagri in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Vaprus is 0.25 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Vaprus is 0.50 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vaprus or Draw
73.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Vaprus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus or Laagri
74.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Vaprus + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Laagri
51.2%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Draw + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vaprus, so a minus line means Vaprus give that many goals of a start and Laagri receive them. At -1, Vaprus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vaprus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vaprus)
Vaprus -2
12.5%
Draw -2
15.2%
Laagri +2
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vaprus)
Vaprus -1
27.7%
Draw -1
21.2%
Laagri +1
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vaprus)
Vaprus +1
73.9%
Draw +1
14.7%
Laagri -1
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vaprus)
Vaprus +2
88.6%
Draw +2
7.6%
Laagri -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.42
0.75
1.06
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.89
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.82
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.92
1.80
0.40
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.83
0.50
0.75
1.08
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.92
1.22
0.78
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.62
1.25
0.25
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
12.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.8%
Under 1.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.08
0.33
0.83
0.72
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.78
1.00
0.43
0.82
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.25
1.20
0.20
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.83
0.72
0.67
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.89
0.89
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.62
1.38
0.62
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
14.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
Under 0.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.7%
Under 1.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Vaprus and Laagri have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Vaprus and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Vaprus and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Vaprus and Laagri have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United