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Vaprus vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 10/09/2022
Time: 16:30
Final 1-2
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
12%
18%
70%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✗ Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D35L03L01L03L24L13L23L01L01LH·TAM02/07H·TRA09/07H·KAL29/07H·KUR06/08A·FC 12/08A·PAI17/08A·FLO20/08H·TAL26/08A·TRA30/08H·LEG04/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.962.781.072.360.853.23
vs Stronger (12)0.673.750.203.401.004.00
vs Similar (15)1.202.001.561.780.672.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-700D30W02L03L00D42W72W12L00D21WH·ARA28/07H·TAM31/07H·AND04/08A·AND11/08H·KUR14/08H·VAP17/08A·TAL20/08H·FLO28/08H·FC 31/08A·KAL03/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.032.190.941.711.14
vs Stronger (2)0.002.500.002.000.003.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.920.331.000.830.83
vs Weaker (16)3.250.943.670.782.711.14
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.6%
Under 2.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
No
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2 ✓
9.4%
0-2
9.3%
1-1
8.2%
1-3
7.9%
0-3
7.9%
0-1
6.6%
1-4
5.0%
0-4
5.0%
Vaprus goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
03.7%6.6%9.3%7.9%5.0%
12.2%8.2%9.4%7.9%5.0%
21.5%3.7%4.7%4.0%2.5%
30.5%1.3%1.6%1.3%0.8%
40.1%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Vaprus is 1.50 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.31 vs 1.81).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Vaprus is 1.44 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Vaprus is 1.64 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 1.03).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W03L00D02L12L11D10W00D00DH·TAM02/07H·TRA09/07H·KAL29/07H·KUR06/08A·FC 12/08A·PAI17/08A·FLO20/08H·TAL26/08A·TRA30/08H·LEG04/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.411.220.431.000.381.46
vs Stronger (12)0.501.830.201.800.711.86
vs Similar (15)0.330.730.560.560.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %26% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D20W02L00D00D21W50W01L00D01LH·ARA28/07H·TAM31/07H·AND04/08A·AND11/08H·KUR14/08H·VAP17/08A·TAL20/08H·FLO28/08H·FC 31/08A·KAL03/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.940.500.570.57
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.000.500.000.330.000.67
vs Weaker (16)1.440.501.670.441.140.57
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W14L00D01L01L12L02L13L01L01LH·TAM02/07H·TRA09/07H·KAL29/07H·KUR06/08A·FC 12/08A·PAI17/08A·FLO20/08H·TAL26/08A·TRA30/08H·LEG04/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.561.560.641.360.461.77
vs Stronger (12)0.171.920.001.600.292.14
vs Similar (15)0.871.271.001.220.671.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D03L00D21W22D11D00D20WH·ARA28/07H·TAM31/07H·AND04/08A·AND11/08H·KUR14/08H·VAP17/08A·TAL20/08H·FLO28/08H·FC 31/08A·KAL03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.501.250.441.140.57
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.420.330.670.830.17
vs Weaker (16)1.810.442.000.331.570.57
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus's squad is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Paide have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
VAP wins
0
Draws
3
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Paide · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/22APaide Vs VAP4-2
27/04/22APaide Vs VAP6-2
01/03/22HVAP Vs Paide1-3

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/22HVAP Vs Legion0-1
30/08/22ATrans Narva Vs VAP1-0
26/08/22HVAP Vs Tallinna Kalev2-3
20/08/22AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP3-1
17/08/22APaide Vs VAP4-2
12/08/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP3-0
06/08/22HVAP Vs Kuressaare0-1
29/07/22HVAP Vs Kalju Nomme0-3
09/07/22HVAP Vs Trans Narva3-5
02/07/22HVAP Vs Tammeka1-1

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-2
31/08/22HPAI Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-0
28/08/22HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
20/08/22ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI2-7
17/08/22HPAI Vs Vaprus4-2
14/08/22HPAI Vs Kuressaare0-0
11/08/22AAnderlecht Vs PAI3-0
04/08/22HPAI Vs Anderlecht0-2
31/07/22HPAI Vs Tammeka3-0
28/07/22HPAI Vs Ararat-Armenia0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.30
HomeLLLLL0.57
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %7%14%0%
AVG goals3.743.434.08
Over 1.5 %81%79%85%
Over 2.5 %67%57%77%
Over 3.5 %52%43%62%
Scored0.961.070.85
Conceded2.782.363.23
BTTS59%57%62%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.62
HomeLDWLD1.47
AwayWDLWW1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%41%53%
AVG goals3.093.242.93
Over 1.5 %72%71%73%
Over 2.5 %62%59%67%
Over 3.5 %31%35%27%
Scored2.002.181.80
Conceded1.091.061.13
BTTS50%41%60%
Clean Sheet31%41%20%
Corners7.678.337.00
Cards5.336.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3697
86%
2.7
9421+73
3.2
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.60.6
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
67%
2.2
7425+49
2.8
69%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.10.7
-
3PaidePaide3665
53%
1.8
8437+47
3.4
78%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.31.0
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3665
53%
1.8
5930+29
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.60.8
-
5KuressaareKuressaare3650
36%
1.4
4951-2
2.8
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.41.4
-
6TammekaTammeka3639
28%
1.1
3857-19
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
28%
1.1
4358-15
2.8
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.6
-
8Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3635
28%
1.0
4292-50
3.7
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
9LegionLegion3829
18%
0.8
3783-46
3.2
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
10VaprusVaprus3611
8%
0.3
3296-64
3.6
75%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.92.7
-
11ElvaElva23
50%
1.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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