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Vaprus vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 23/10/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
15%
21%
65%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✓ Hit
64.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L01L01L04L22D13L03L31W20WH·FC 10/08A·PAI18/08H·FLO23/08A·TAL01/09H·KAL15/09H·TAM18/09A·FC 22/09A·FLO29/09H·KUR06/10A·NÕM19/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.631.131.870.931.40
vs Stronger (13)0.692.150.502.670.861.71
vs Similar (17)1.291.241.561.331.001.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W31W42W72W23L43W23L30W11D21WH·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NÕM14/09A·TAL17/09H·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09A·TRA29/09H·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.371.931.271.931.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.691.622.141.141.172.17
vs Weaker (17)2.121.181.751.382.441.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.8%
0-2
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
0-1 ✓
7.8%
1-3
7.4%
0-3
7.3%
2-2
4.9%
0-0
4.7%
Vaprus goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
04.7%7.8%9.8%7.3%4.1%
13.0%9.6%9.8%7.4%4.1%
22.0%4.4%4.9%3.7%2.1%
30.7%1.5%1.7%1.2%0.7%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Vaprus is 1.03 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Vaprus is 1.08 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 2.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Vaprus is 0.50 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L00D00D03L21W10W02L11D10WH·FC 10/08A·PAI18/08H·FLO23/08A·TAL01/09H·KAL15/09H·TAM18/09A·FC 22/09A·FLO29/09H·KUR06/10A·NÕM19/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.870.401.070.200.67
vs Stronger (13)0.231.150.171.500.290.86
vs Similar (17)0.350.650.560.780.120.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W30W50W13L23L12L00D10W11DH·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NÕM14/09A·TAL17/09H·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09A·TRA29/09H·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.831.000.730.870.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.080.691.290.290.831.17
vs Weaker (17)0.820.940.751.120.890.78
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D01L01L01L01L03L01L20W10WH·FC 10/08A·PAI18/08H·FLO23/08A·TAL01/09H·KAL15/09H·TAM18/09A·FC 22/09A·FLO29/09H·KUR06/10A·NÕM19/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.730.800.730.73
vs Stronger (13)0.461.000.331.170.570.86
vs Similar (17)0.940.591.000.560.880.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W12L22D10W20W11D30W01L10WH·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NÕM14/09A·TAL17/09H·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09A·TRA29/09H·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.530.930.531.070.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.920.860.860.331.00
vs Weaker (17)1.290.241.000.251.560.22
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus's squad is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Paide have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
VAP wins
2
Draws
4
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Paide · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/24APaide Vs VAP1-0
18/06/24APaide Vs VAP0-1
03/03/24HVAP Vs Paide0-3
23/09/23APaide Vs VAP3-0
30/06/23HVAP Vs Paide1-1
21/05/23APaide Vs VAP0-1
23/04/23HVAP Vs Paide2-2
10/09/22HVAP Vs Paide1-2

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24ANõmme United Vs VAP0-2
06/10/24HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-1
29/09/24AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP3-0
22/09/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP3-1
18/09/24HVAP Vs Tammeka2-2
15/09/24HVAP Vs Kalju Nomme0-4
01/09/24ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-0
23/08/24HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn0-1
18/08/24APaide Vs VAP1-0
10/08/24HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-4

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/24HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn2-1
06/10/24HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme1-1
29/09/24ATrans Narva Vs PAI0-3
25/09/24HPAI Vs Trans Narva2-3
21/09/24HPAI Vs Kuressaare4-3
17/09/24ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI3-2
14/09/24HPAI Vs Nõmme United7-2
01/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-4
24/08/24ATammeka Vs PAI1-3
18/08/24HPAI Vs Vaprus1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.08
HomeLLLDW1.12
AwayLLLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.522.962.12
Over 1.5 %68%79%58%
Over 2.5 %46%58%35%
Over 3.5 %32%42%23%
Scored1.081.210.96
Conceded1.441.751.15
BTTS46%54%38%
Clean Sheet26%17%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.76
HomeWWLDW1.92
AwayLWWLW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%58%50%
AVG goals3.143.083.19
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %60%54%65%
Over 3.5 %36%42%31%
Scored1.902.041.77
Conceded1.241.041.42
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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