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Vaprus vs Tammeka Result & Analysis

Date: 11/07/2026
Time: 11:30
Final 5-1
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
52%
24%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Vaprus are the clear favourites, with a 52 % chance of victory, a 24 % chance of a draw and a 24 % chance of a Tammeka win. The model predicts an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.3 % chance. Vaprus, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average two goals scored and one conceded per game, while Tammeka, on the road, average 1.38 scored and 3.25 conceded. The model’s selection for this match is Over 1.5, an 83 % probability that the game will see more than one and a half goals. Vaprus have struggled recently, losing two of their last five, but their last match against Flora Tallinn ended 1-2. Tammeka are on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Kuressaare 1-0. The predicted outcome is a Vaprus win.

Results analysis

The Vaprus win extended their recent form, turning a two-game losing streak into a decisive victory. The model had picked a home win with a 52 % probability, and the result matched that call. The final score was 5-1, confirming the home advantage and the model’s confidence. The single suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 83 % probability, and it hit as the match produced five goals. All selections were settled, and the model’s predictions proved accurate across the board.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W01L11D01L13L03L03L10W13LH·TAL21/09A·LAA27/09A·KAL05/10A·TRA18/10H·KUR21/10H·FC 26/10A·PAI02/11H·FLO08/11H·KUR26/06A·PAI04/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.471.471.401.601.53
vs Stronger (13)1.002.080.832.171.142.00
vs Similar (14)1.931.212.001.001.831.50
vs Weaker (3)2.000.001.000.002.500.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L12L01L03L05L22D52W12L20W21WH·VAP16/09A·FLO20/09H·KUR26/09A·FC 05/10A·PAI18/10A·LAA22/10H·TAL25/10A·KAL02/11H·TRA08/11H·LAA05/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.372.271.671.331.073.20
vs Stronger (12)0.582.500.671.830.503.17
vs Similar (15)1.472.201.571.001.383.25
vs Weaker (3)4.001.675.001.002.003.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.8%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.4%
Vaprus goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
01234
05.4%4.4%3.4%1.4%0.4%
17.2%11%6.4%2.6%0.8%
27.8%9.7%6.0%2.5%0.8%
34.9%6.1%3.8%1.6%0.5%
42.3%2.9%1.8%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Paide
1.83
Tammeka
1.80
Laagri
1.29
Vaprus
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Kuressaare
0.88
Nõmme United
0.86
Vaprus is 0.80 points worse than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.86
Flora Tallinn
1.83
Vaprus
1.57
Tammeka
1.20
Nõmme United
1.14
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Vaprus is 0.37 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.71
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.17
Laagri
1.43
Paide
1.50
Kuressaare
1.62
Vaprus
1.86
Trans Narva
2.14
Tammeka
2.20
Nõmme United
2.57
Vaprus is 0.34 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 2.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W00D01L01L03L01L02L10W12LH·TAL21/09A·LAA27/09A·KAL05/10A·TRA18/10H·KUR21/10H·FC 26/10A·PAI02/11H·FLO08/11H·KUR26/06A·PAI04/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.770.801.001.070.53
vs Stronger (13)0.691.150.501.830.860.57
vs Similar (14)1.070.571.000.501.170.67
vs Weaker (3)1.330.001.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L00D02L02L02L01L10W20W21WH·VAP16/09A·FLO20/09H·KUR26/09A·FC 05/10A·PAI18/10A·LAA22/10H·TAL25/10A·KAL02/11H·TRA08/11H·LAA05/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.130.930.930.601.33
vs Stronger (12)0.421.330.501.500.331.17
vs Similar (15)0.931.071.290.570.621.50
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.000.502.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L10W00D10W02L01L00D01LH·TAL21/09A·LAA27/09A·KAL05/10A·TRA18/10H·KUR21/10H·FC 26/10A·PAI02/11H·FLO08/11H·KUR26/06A·PAI04/07
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.670.400.531.00
vs Stronger (13)0.310.920.330.330.291.43
vs Similar (14)0.860.641.000.500.670.83
vs Weaker (3)0.670.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D01L01L03L20W51W02L00D00DH·VAP16/09A·FLO20/09H·KUR26/09A·FC 05/10A·PAI18/10A·LAA22/10H·TAL25/10A·KAL02/11H·TRA08/11H·LAA05/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.130.730.400.471.87
vs Stronger (12)0.171.170.170.330.172.00
vs Similar (15)0.531.130.290.430.751.75
vs Weaker (3)2.671.004.000.500.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (21)
€3m
FT (20)
€3m
PAI (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€1m
PAI (8)
€1m
KN (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAI (5)
€1m
KN (2)
€1m
FT (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
PAI (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
VAP wins
2
Draws
1
TAM wins

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Tammeka · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/25ATammeka Vs VAP1-4
15/08/25HVAP Vs Tammeka8-1
17/05/25HVAP Vs Tammeka2-1
29/03/25ATammeka Vs VAP0-5
18/09/24HVAP Vs Tammeka2-2
02/08/24ATammeka Vs VAP0-1
23/05/24HVAP Vs Tammeka1-1
09/03/24ATammeka Vs VAP1-0

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/26APaide Vs VAP3-1
26/06/26HVAP Vs Kuressaare1-0
08/11/25HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn0-3
02/11/25APaide Vs VAP3-0
26/10/25HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-3
21/10/25HVAP Vs Kuressaare0-1
18/10/25ATrans Narva Vs VAP1-1
05/10/25AKalju Nomme Vs VAP1-0
27/09/25ALaagri Vs VAP1-2
21/09/25HVAP Vs Tallinna Kalev1-0

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/07/26HTAM Vs Laagri2-1
08/11/25HTAM Vs Trans Narva2-0
02/11/25AKalju Nomme Vs TAM2-1
25/10/25HTAM Vs Tallinna Kalev5-2
22/10/25ALaagri Vs TAM2-2
18/10/25APaide Vs TAM5-0
05/10/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TAM3-0
26/09/25HTAM Vs Kuressaare0-1
20/09/25AFlora Tallinn Vs TAM2-1
16/09/25HTAM Vs Vaprus1-4

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.26
HomeWLLLW1.20
AwayWLDLL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%32%40%
AVG goals2.822.842.80
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.361.321.40
Conceded1.461.521.40
BTTS50%52%48%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.00
HomeLLWWW1.16
AwayLLLDL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals3.583.483.68
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %80%76%84%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.401.641.16
Conceded2.181.842.52
BTTS64%60%68%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kalju NommeKalju Nomme714
57%
2.0
145+9
2.7
71%
43%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.00.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn613
67%
2.2
165+11
3.5
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.8
-
3Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn612
67%
2.0
117+4
3.0
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.81.2
-
4PaidePaide611
50%
1.8
129+3
3.5
83%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.5
-
5LaagriLaagri79
43%
1.3
1310+3
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
-
6TammekaTammeka59
60%
1.8
611-5
3.4
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
7VaprusVaprus77
29%
1.0
1113-2
3.4
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare87
25%
0.9
813-5
2.6
50%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva77
29%
1.0
715-8
3.1
100%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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