Vaprus are the clear favourites, with a 52 % chance of victory, a 24 % chance of a draw and a 24 % chance of a Tammeka win. The model predicts an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.3 % chance. Vaprus, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average two goals scored and one conceded per game, while Tammeka, on the road, average 1.38 scored and 3.25 conceded. The model’s selection for this match is Over 1.5, an 83 % probability that the game will see more than one and a half goals. Vaprus have struggled recently, losing two of their last five, but their last match against Flora Tallinn ended 1-2. Tammeka are on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Kuressaare 1-0. The predicted outcome is a Vaprus win.
Results analysis
The Vaprus win extended their recent form, turning a two-game losing streak into a decisive victory. The model had picked a home win with a 52 % probability, and the result matched that call. The final score was 5-1, confirming the home advantage and the model’s confidence. The single suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 83 % probability, and it hit as the match produced five goals. All selections were settled, and the model’s predictions proved accurate across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vaprus win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.47
1.47
1.40
1.60
1.53
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.08
0.83
2.17
1.14
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.93
1.21
2.00
1.00
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.27
1.67
1.33
1.07
3.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
2.50
0.67
1.83
0.50
3.17
vs Similar (15)
1.47
2.20
1.57
1.00
1.38
3.25
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
1.67
5.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.8%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.4%
Vaprus goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
1
7.2%
11%
6.4%
2.6%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.7%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.9%
6.1%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.3%
2.9%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Paide
1.83
Tammeka
1.80
Laagri
1.29
Vaprus
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Kuressaare
0.88
Nõmme United
0.86
Vaprus is 0.80 points worse than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.86
Flora Tallinn
1.83
Vaprus
1.57
Tammeka
1.20
Nõmme United
1.14
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Vaprus is 0.37 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.71
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.17
Laagri
1.43
Paide
1.50
Kuressaare
1.62
Vaprus
1.86
Trans Narva
2.14
Tammeka
2.20
Nõmme United
2.57
Vaprus is 0.34 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
0.80
1.00
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.15
0.50
1.83
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.07
1.29
0.57
0.62
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.67
0.40
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.92
0.33
0.33
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.64
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.13
0.73
0.40
0.47
1.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.17
0.17
0.33
0.17
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.13
0.29
0.43
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
4.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →