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Vaprus vs Trans Narva Result & Analysis

Date: 09/07/2022
Time: 16:00
Final 3-5
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
43%
27%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L26L01L31W13L11D01L14L16L11DA·LEG23/04A·PAI27/04H·KAL30/04H·KUR06/05A·TAM13/05H·LEG18/05A·TAL25/05A·FC 16/06A·FLO29/06H·TAM02/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.831.112.220.893.44
vs Stronger (8)0.624.000.253.501.004.50
vs Similar (10)1.301.901.801.200.802.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L03L01L06L01L24L03L11D01L11DH·FC 20/04A·KAL23/04H·KUR26/04A·FC 30/04A·LEG07/05A·PAI18/05H·FLO25/05H·TAL18/06A·TAM29/06H·PAI02/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.711.221.330.752.12
vs Stronger (8)0.502.620.501.750.503.50
vs Similar (9)1.440.891.801.001.000.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
7.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
Vaprus goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
01234
06.7%6.1%4.7%2.0%0.7%
17.7%13%7.4%3.2%1.0%
27.1%9.1%5.9%2.6%0.8%
33.7%4.9%3.2%1.4%0.4%
41.5%1.9%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Vaprus is 0.75 points worse than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (0.31 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Vaprus is 0.31 goals worse than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.19).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Vaprus is 1.06 goals worse than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 1.61).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L00D21W01L01L00D12L12L01LA·LEG23/04A·PAI27/04H·KAL30/04H·KUR06/05A·TAM13/05H·LEG18/05A·TAL25/05A·FC 16/06A·FLO29/06H·TAM02/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.330.331.110.331.56
vs Stronger (8)0.501.750.251.500.752.00
vs Similar (10)0.201.000.400.800.001.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L03L00D12L01L10W00D00DH·FC 20/04A·KAL23/04H·KUR26/04A·FC 30/04A·LEG07/05A·PAI18/05H·FLO25/05H·TAL18/06A·TAM29/06H·PAI02/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.650.440.440.250.88
vs Stronger (8)0.121.120.000.500.251.75
vs Similar (9)0.560.220.800.400.250.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L13L01L10W12L10W01L02L04L10WA·LEG23/04A·PAI27/04H·KAL30/04H·KUR06/05A·TAM13/05H·LEG18/05A·TAL25/05A·FC 16/06A·FLO29/06H·TAM02/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.500.781.110.561.89
vs Stronger (8)0.122.250.002.000.252.50
vs Similar (10)1.100.901.400.400.801.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %28% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L00D03L01L12L02L01L01L11DH·FC 20/04A·KAL23/04H·KUR26/04A·FC 30/04A·LEG07/05A·PAI18/05H·FLO25/05H·TAL18/06A·TAM29/06H·PAI02/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.651.060.780.890.501.25
vs Stronger (8)0.381.500.501.250.251.75
vs Similar (9)0.890.671.000.600.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %24% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
VAP wins
0
Draws
1
TN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Trans Narva · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/22ATrans Narva Vs VAP3-1

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/07/22HVAP Vs Tammeka1-1
29/06/22AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP6-1
16/06/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP4-1
25/05/22ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-0
18/05/22HVAP Vs Legion1-1
13/05/22ATammeka Vs VAP3-1
06/05/22HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-1
30/04/22HVAP Vs Kalju Nomme0-1
27/04/22APaide Vs VAP6-2
23/04/22ALegion Vs VAP3-0

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/07/22HTN Vs Paide1-1
29/06/22ATammeka Vs TN1-0
18/06/22HTN Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
25/05/22HTN Vs Flora Tallinn0-3
18/05/22APaide Vs TN4-2
07/05/22ALegion Vs TN1-0
30/04/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN6-0
26/04/22HTN Vs Kuressaare0-1
23/04/22AKalju Nomme Vs TN3-0
20/04/22HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD0.44
HomeLLWDD0.89
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %11%22%0%
AVG goals3.833.334.33
Over 1.5 %89%89%89%
Over 2.5 %67%56%78%
Over 3.5 %56%44%67%
Scored1.001.110.89
Conceded2.832.223.44
BTTS67%67%67%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD0.82
HomeLLLDD0.89
AwayLLLLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%22%25%
AVG goals2.712.562.88
Over 1.5 %71%78%62%
Over 2.5 %47%44%50%
Over 3.5 %24%22%25%
Scored1.001.220.75
Conceded1.711.332.12
BTTS35%44%25%
Clean Sheet12%11%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3697
86%
2.7
9421+73
3.2
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.60.6
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
67%
2.2
7425+49
2.8
69%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.10.7
-
3PaidePaide3665
53%
1.8
8437+47
3.4
78%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.31.0
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3665
53%
1.8
5930+29
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.60.8
-
5KuressaareKuressaare3650
36%
1.4
4951-2
2.8
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.41.4
-
6TammekaTammeka3639
28%
1.1
3857-19
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
28%
1.1
4358-15
2.8
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.6
-
8Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3635
28%
1.0
4292-50
3.7
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
9LegionLegion3829
18%
0.8
3783-46
3.2
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
10VaprusVaprus3611
8%
0.3
3296-64
3.6
75%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.92.7
-
11ElvaElva23
50%
1.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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