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Vaprus vs Trans Narva Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 11:30
Vaprus
Vaprus
Vs
50%
26%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Vaprus are favoured to win, with a 51% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 24% for Trans Narva. The match is expected to see three goals on average, but the most likely total is two, a 24% probability. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12% chance. Vaprus, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded; Trans Narva, on the road, average 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Home +2 handicap (90.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.6%) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.4%). Vaprus are coming off a draw, while Trans Narva have endured two straight defeats.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaprus win
49.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L51W13L41W11D50W13L12L22D23LA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NĂ•M02/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.472.501.081.891.72
vs Stronger (18)1.941.672.141.431.821.82
vs Similar (12)2.421.173.000.602.001.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-803L31W00D21W02L80W11D04L20W02LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NĂ•M31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.502.501.331.001.75
vs Stronger (14)0.932.071.111.780.602.60
vs Similar (15)2.271.073.121.001.291.14
vs Weaker (1)10.000.0010.000.00--
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.8%
Under 2.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.1%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
5.7%
Vaprus goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
01234
06.3%5.1%3.7%1.5%0.4%
18.1%12%6.5%2.6%0.8%
28.1%9.7%5.8%2.3%0.7%
34.8%5.7%3.4%1.3%0.4%
42.1%2.5%1.5%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vaprus goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Vaprus is 0.12 points better than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Vaprus is 0.75 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 0.88).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Vaprus is 0.25 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 2.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vaprus or Draw
75.5%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
25%
covers Vaprus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus or Trans Narva
74.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
25%
covers Vaprus + Trans Narva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Trans Narva
50.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
25%
covers Draw + Trans Narva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Vaprus, so a minus line means Vaprus give that many goals of a start and Trans Narva receive them. At -1, Vaprus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vaprus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vaprus)
Vaprus -2
12.6%
Draw -2
15.6%
Trans Narva +2
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vaprus)
Vaprus -1
28.1%
Draw -1
21.8%
Trans Narva +1
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vaprus)
Vaprus +1
75.5%
Draw +1
14.3%
Trans Narva -1
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vaprus)
Vaprus +2
89.7%
Draw +2
7.0%
Trans Narva -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L31W02L11D10W30W02L02L11D13LA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NĂ•M02/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.901.420.751.061.00
vs Stronger (18)1.060.891.141.001.000.82
vs Similar (12)1.420.921.800.401.141.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L20W00D20W01L40W10W01L20W01LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NĂ•M31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.731.220.720.330.75
vs Stronger (14)0.360.860.561.000.000.60
vs Similar (15)1.130.671.620.500.570.86
vs Weaker (1)4.000.004.000.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W11D30W01L20W11D10W11D10WA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NĂ•M02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.571.080.330.830.72
vs Stronger (18)0.890.781.000.430.821.00
vs Similar (12)1.000.251.200.200.860.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D00D01L01L40W01L03L00D01LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NĂ•M31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.771.280.610.671.00
vs Stronger (14)0.571.210.560.780.602.00
vs Similar (15)1.130.401.500.500.710.29
vs Weaker (1)6.000.006.000.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.9%-------
Under 6.596.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.7%-------
Under 5.592.0%-------
Home +2 handicap89.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals89.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals83.0%-------
Under 4.582.2%-------
Over 1.580.6%-------
Home or Draw75.5%-------
Home +1 handicap75.5%-------
Home or Away74.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals73.8%-------
Away +2 handicap71.9%-------

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Vaprus and Trans Narva have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
VAP wins
4
Draws
4
TN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vaprus vs Trans Narva · H/A from VAP
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26ATrans Narva Vs VAP3-1
18/10/25ATrans Narva Vs VAP1-1
12/07/25HVAP Vs Trans Narva0-0
11/05/25ATrans Narva Vs VAP4-2
23/04/25HVAP Vs Trans Narva1-2
04/03/25ATrans Narva Vs VAP3-1
27/10/24ATrans Narva Vs VAP1-1
20/07/24HVAP Vs Trans Narva0-0

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26ANõmme United Vs VAP3-2
29/08/26AKuressaare Vs VAP2-2
23/08/26HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
16/08/26AKalju Nomme Vs VAP3-1
12/08/26APhoenix Vs VAP0-5
02/08/26HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-1
21/07/26ATabasalu Ulasabat Vs VAP1-4
18/07/26ATrans Narva Vs VAP3-1
11/07/26HVAP Vs Tammeka5-1
04/07/26APaide Vs VAP3-1

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HTN Vs Tammeka0-2
26/08/26HTN Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
21/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN4-0
16/08/26HTN Vs Paide1-1
11/08/26HTN Vs Kompanii Marjamaa8-0
08/08/26HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-2
31/07/26ANõmme United Vs TN1-2
22/07/26HTN Vs Flora II0-0
18/07/26HTN Vs Vaprus3-1
10/07/26ALaagri Vs TN3-0

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.44
HomeWWWDL1.50
AwayWWLDL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals3.543.673.42
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %72%71%73%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored2.102.381.85
Conceded1.441.291.58
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.46
HomeLWDWL1.63
AwayLLLWL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%39%
AVG goals3.323.702.87
Over 1.5 %80%85%74%
Over 2.5 %60%59%61%
Over 3.5 %42%52%30%
Scored1.922.371.39
Conceded1.401.331.48
BTTS46%52%39%
Clean Sheet28%33%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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