Varbergs BoIS FC hosts Falkenbergs FF in a Sweden: Superettan match on August 1st. Falkenbergs FF is coming off a draw, while Varbergs BoIS FC is seeking to bounce back from a defeat. The model's pick is a home win, with a 39% probability of success. The away win probability is 37%, and the draw probability is 24%. The expected total goals are 3.5, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.4% probability.
Varbergs BoIS FC has been scoring an average of 3 goals at home against stronger opponents, while conceding 2 goals. Falkenbergs FF averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded away against weaker opponents. The model suggests an Over 1.5 goal selection, which has an 86.9% probability of success and an 8% edge. The Under 21.5 fouls selection has a 96% probability of success. The home win percentage is 39%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 37%.
Results analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC's win extends their run of inconsistent form, having switched between wins and losses in their last five matches. The final score of 2-1 reflects the home side's dominance, as they secured the actual result of Home win. The model correctly picked Home win, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection was correct, as the favoured outcome landed. The model also suggested Over 1.5, which hit, and had a pre-match probability of 86.9%. The most likely total goals was 3, with a probability of 22%. The most likely scores included a 1-1 draw, a 2-1 home win, and a 1-2 away win, each with a probability of 10.4%, 8.3%, and 8% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC win✓ Hit
39.1%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 1.95
Edge
-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
1.97
Dafabet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
SBO
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.60
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69
Dafabet
3.65
Falkenbergs FF win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.41
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
1.73
1.07
1.67
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.75
1.39
1.73
1.07
1.77
1.77
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkenbergs FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.43
2.07
0.93
2.13
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
2.12
1.60
2.08
1.08
2.17
2.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
@ 1.18+7.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
@ 4.43-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
4.63
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.1%
@ 1.61+8.9%
Under 2.5
32.9%
@ 2.24-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
@ 2.50+8.2%
Under 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.48-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.5%
@ 1.53+8.3%
No
31.5%
@ 2.33-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.32
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 6.83+3.9%
2-1 ✓
8.3%@ 7.82+2.6%
1-2
8.0%@ 10.73+3.9%
2-2
7.0%@ 11.10+3.0%
2-0
4.9%@ 10.11+0.5%
3-1
4.9%@ 12.85+1.4%
1-0
4.6%@ 8.94-0.4%
0-2
4.5%@ 18.72+2.2%
Varbergs BoIS FC goals ↓
Falkenbergs FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.4%
4.5%
2.6%
1.1%
1
4.6%
10%
8.0%
4.5%
1.9%
2
4.9%
8.3%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.9%
4.9%
4.1%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.3%
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Varbergs BoIS FC goals (down), columns = Falkenbergs FF goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.20
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
Falkenbergs FF
1.75
Ostersunds FK
1.70
United Nordic
1.60
Osters IF
1.53
Landskrona BoIS
1.50
Oddevold
1.45
Sandviken
1.30
Helsingborg
1.25
Ljungskile SK
1.20
Norrby IF
1.15
IK brage
1.05
IFK Varnamo
0.95
Orebro SK
0.84
GIF Sundsvall
0.53
Varbergs BoIS FC is 0.04 points better than Falkenbergs FF in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
IFK Norrkoping
1.90
Falkenbergs FF
1.85
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
IK brage
1.70
Sandviken
1.65
Oddevold
1.65
Helsingborg
1.65
Osters IF
1.58
United Nordic
1.55
Ostersunds FK
1.45
Ljungskile SK
1.35
Landskrona BoIS
1.30
Norrby IF
1.25
IFK Varnamo
1.20
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.74
Varbergs BoIS FC is 0.06 goals worse than Falkenbergs FF in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.60
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.26
Norrby IF
1.35
Ljungskile SK
1.35
United Nordic
1.35
Oddevold
1.40
Falkenbergs FF
1.45
Sandviken
1.50
Osters IF
1.53
Orebro SK
1.63
IFK Varnamo
1.90
IK brage
1.90
Helsingborg
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.26
Varbergs BoIS FC is 0.19 goals better than Falkenbergs FF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
58%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
Ostersunds FK
53%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ljungskile SK
51%
Osters IF
50%
United Nordic
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Oddevold
50%
Orebro SK
50%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
45%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
Varbergs BoIS FC is 2.7 percentage points worse than Falkenbergs FF in terms of average possession (47% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC
For 4.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkenbergs FF
For 4.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 0.8 · Total 1.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Varbergs BoIS FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.7
9.1
1.9
1.8
2.0
28.1
28.8
27.5
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
9.0
8.7
9.1
2.1
1.9
2.2
28.1
28.8
27.5
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
44%
45%
43%
24%
25%
23%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
56%
55%
57%
76%
75%
77%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkenbergs FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.6
1.1
1.2
1.0
22.9
21.4
24.6
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
9.4
9.2
9.7
1.2
1.2
1.1
23.9
22.1
25.9
vs Weaker (7)
10.0
11.0
9.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
16.0
16.0
16.0
% over line
45%
50%
40%
14%
17%
12%
65%
56%
75%
% under line
55%
50%
60%
86%
83%
88%
35%
44%
25%
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Orebro SK
9.4
Ostersunds FK
9.2
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
4.0
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.5
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.1
Oddevold
2.9
Falkenbergs FF
2.8
United Nordic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Osters IF
25.4
Ostersunds FK
25.3
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.3%
@ 1.76-9.3%
Under 9.5
56.7%
@ 1.95+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Under
Unibet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.8%
Under 21.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Varbergs BoIS FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.46
0.87
0.33
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkenbergs FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
1.07
0.40
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.80
1.00
0.46
1.17
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Varbergs BoIS FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
0.87
0.73
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.93
0.87
0.73
1.00
1.15
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkenbergs FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.00
0.53
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.80
1.08
0.62
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.9%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Bet365
1.18
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
1.36
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+11.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (22)
€4m
SAN (20)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
GS (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
Varbergs BoIS FC and Falkenbergs FF have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
IB (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
Varbergs BoIS FC and Falkenbergs FF have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
GS (4)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
Varbergs BoIS FC's midfield is €2m more valuable than Falkenbergs FF's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
Varbergs BoIS FC and Falkenbergs FF have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
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IFK Norrkoping
Ostersunds FK
United Nordic
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Osters IF
Sandviken
Helsingborg
Ljungskile SK
Norrby IF
IK brage
IFK Varnamo
Orebro SK
GIF Sundsvall