Vasas are tipped to secure a home win, with a 48% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and a 25% chance for Nyiregyhaza to triumph. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.1% probability. Vasas, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, have averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded, while Nyiregyhaza, on the road, have also averaged 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include an 75.9% chance of Over 1.5 goals and a 71.9% chance of Under 3.5 goals. The home side’s recent form shows two straight defeats followed by two wins and a draw, while Nyiregyhaza’s last five games include a draw, a win, and three losses. This context supports the prediction that Vasas will come out on top.
Results analysis
The latest match saw Vasas extend their recent form, turning a run of two straight defeats into a decisive victory. The model had picked a home win with a 48% probability, and that call proved correct as Vasas triumphed 3-0. The favourite’s prediction was spot on, and the final score matched the actual result. The model’s selections also performed well: Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.9% chance, hit the target, and Under 3.5 goals, at 71.9%, also came in. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 was not achieved, but the overall outcome aligned with the model’s forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vasas win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.47
1.07
1.27
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.43
1.36
1.18
0.80
1.70
vs Weaker (7)
2.57
1.14
2.33
0.67
2.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyiregyhaza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.10
1.31
1.06
1.29
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.08
1.29
1.00
1.27
1.18
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.20
1.50
1.50
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.2%
Vasas goals ↓
Nyiregyhaza goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.3%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.7%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.4%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.6%
5.0%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vasas goals (down), columns = Nyiregyhaza goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nyiregyhaza
2.32
Gyori ETO FC
2.03
Vasas
1.97
Szeged 2011
1.76
Kozarmisleny FC
1.53
Gyirmot SE
1.44
Soroksar
1.32
Kazincbarcikai
1.29
Budafoki LC
1.29
Budapest Honved
1.29
Csakvar
1.26
Ajka
1.26
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.12
BVSC
1.12
Pécsi MFC
1.06
Tiszakecske FC
1.00
Siofok
0.91
MTE 1904
0.62
Vasas is 0.35 points worse than Nyiregyhaza in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 2.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vasas
2.12
Nyiregyhaza
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.91
Kozarmisleny FC
1.62
Gyirmot SE
1.44
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.24
Csakvar
1.15
Soroksar
1.15
Budapest Honved
1.15
Kazincbarcikai
1.09
Budafoki LC
1.09
Siofok
1.06
Szeged 2011
1.03
Tiszakecske FC
0.97
Ajka
0.88
MTE 1904
0.85
BVSC
0.79
Pécsi MFC
0.59
Vasas is 0.09 goals better than Nyiregyhaza in terms of goals scored per game (2.12 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Szeged 2011
0.68
Nyiregyhaza
0.79
Vasas
0.97
Ajka
0.97
Budapest Honved
1.06
Gyori ETO FC
1.09
Pécsi MFC
1.15
Tiszakecske FC
1.18
BVSC
1.18
Kazincbarcikai
1.21
Budafoki LC
1.29
Soroksar
1.29
Gyirmot SE
1.32
Csakvar
1.32
Kozarmisleny FC
1.32
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.53
Siofok
1.76
MTE 1904
2.03
Vasas is 0.18 goals worse than Nyiregyhaza in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 0.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.53
0.33
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.62
0.36
0.45
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.43
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyiregyhaza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.69
0.38
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.32
0.64
0.29
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.93
0.73
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.81
1.00
0.73
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.71
1.00
0.67
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyiregyhaza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.62
0.69
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.76
0.64
0.71
1.09
0.82
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (28)
€16m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
BH (25)
€5m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Vasas and Nyiregyhaza have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (10)
€7m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
BH (6)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Vasas and Nyiregyhaza have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (6)
€4m
VAS (7)
€2m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
Vasas's midfield is €1m more valuable than Nyiregyhaza's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (12)
€5m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
VAS (10)
€2m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SOR (6)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Vasas's defence is €1m less valuable than Nyiregyhaza's (€2m vs €3m).
Hungary: NB II 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →