The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% chance. Vasteras SK FK, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Sirius, on the road, has a more potent attack, scoring 2.33 goals per match, but also concedes 2.08. The model favours an away win, with a 38% probability, followed by a 37% chance of a home win and a 26% draw. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (95.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.2%) and Away under 3.5 goals (91.9%). Vasteras SK FK comes off a win, while Sirius also returns from a victory, setting the stage for a tightly contested, goal-laden match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vasteras SK FK win
35.6%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.58
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.64
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.72
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
Pinnacle
3.87
Dafabet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Sirius win
38.8%
Avg Implied 49.0% · @ 1.90
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.91
William Hil
1.91
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vasteras SK FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.43
1.85
1.15
1.71
1.65
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
-
-
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.77
1.38
1.83
1.17
1.71
1.57
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sirius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.17
2.81
1.12
2.36
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
2.43
1.43
2.50
1.33
2.36
1.55
vs Weaker (7)
3.14
0.29
3.75
0.50
2.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.8%
@ 1.16+3.5%
Under 1.5
16.2%
@ 4.74-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Pinnacle
4.81
10Bet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.55+1.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
@ 2.33-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.36
Unibet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.6%
@ 2.38+0.2%
Under 3.5
60.4%
@ 1.55-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Both teams to score
Yes
64.6%
@ 1.50+2.9%
No
35.4%
@ 2.41-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.42
William Hil
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 7.09+5.2%
1-2
8.5%@ 7.85+2.8%
2-1
8.2%@ 11.21+4.1%
2-2
6.7%@ 10.98+2.6%
0-1
5.7%@ 9.32+0.8%
0-2
5.5%@ 10.31+1.1%
1-0
5.4%@ 13.15+1.9%
0-0
5.2%@ 13.94+1.9%
Vasteras SK FK goals ↓
Sirius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
5.7%
5.5%
3.0%
1.2%
1
5.4%
12%
8.5%
4.7%
1.9%
2
5.0%
8.2%
6.7%
3.6%
1.5%
3
2.6%
4.2%
3.5%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vasteras SK FK goals (down), columns = Sirius goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Malmo FF
1.53
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
Vasteras SK FK is 0.68 points worse than Sirius in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 2.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
Vasteras SK FK is 1.00 goals worse than Sirius in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 2.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
Vasteras SK FK is 0.32 goals worse than Sirius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Vasteras SK FK is 0.6 percentage points worse than Sirius in terms of average possession (48% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vasteras SK FK
For 3.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 13.2 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sirius
For 6.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasteras SK FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.7
9.9
2.3
2.3
2.3
26.5
26.9
26.1
vs Stronger (2)
6.0
-
6.0
3.5
-
3.5
26.5
-
26.5
vs Similar (40)
9.5
8.4
10.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
26.5
26.3
26.7
vs Weaker (8)
10.0
10.5
9.0
1.8
2.4
0.7
26.0
30.5
17.0
% over line
48%
50%
47%
30%
26%
33%
90%
100%
82%
% under line
52%
50%
53%
70%
74%
67%
10%
0%
18%
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sirius
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.6
11.7
2.8
2.7
3.0
25.2
24.9
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
11.1
10.8
11.4
3.1
3.0
3.2
25.4
24.9
25.9
vs Weaker (10)
11.4
9.3
13.0
1.7
1.4
2.0
24.6
24.7
24.5
% over line
77%
68%
86%
44%
40%
48%
84%
82%
86%
% under line
23%
32%
14%
56%
60%
52%
16%
18%
14%
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.6
Sirius
11.1
Orgryte IS
10.7
BK Hacken
10.7
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
Gais
10.4
AIK Stockholm
10.4
Degerfors IF
10.3
Djurgardens IF
10.2
Halmstad
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.2
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Vasteras SK FK
9.9
Hammarby FF
9.9
Mjallby AIF
9.8
Malmo FF
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
IFK Goteborg
4.2
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.9
Malmo FF
3.8
IF Brommapojkarna
3.7
Mjallby AIF
3.7
Gais
3.7
Vasteras SK FK
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
Halmstad
3.5
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Sirius
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Orgryte IS
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Djurgardens IF
25.7
Malmo FF
25.7
IFK Goteborg
25.7
Sirius
25.4
Degerfors IF
25.4
Mjallby AIF
25.1
Vasteras SK FK
25.1
Gais
25.0
IF Brommapojkarna
24.6
BK Hacken
24.4
Hammarby FF
24.4
IF Elfsborg
24.3
AIK Stockholm
24.1
Kalmar FF
23.6
Halmstad
23.3
Orgryte IS
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.5%
@ 1.56-0.3%
Under 9.5
41.5%
@ 2.23+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Unibet
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.8%
Under 21.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vasteras SK FK or Draw
61.2%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.85
Edge
+10.6%
36%
26%
39%
covers Vasteras SK FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.89
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Vasteras SK FK or Sirius
74.5%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.3%
36%
26%
39%
covers Vasteras SK FK + Sirius
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Draw or Sirius
64.4%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.27
Edge
-9.3%
36%
26%
39%
covers Draw + Sirius
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
@ 1.30+7.6%
Under
21.0%
@ 3.24-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Betano
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Vasteras SK FK over/under 1.5
Over
46.2%
@ 2.47+8.4%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.50-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Vasteras SK FK over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
@ 5.76+4.5%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.11-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Vasteras SK FK over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
@ 14.62+0.8%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Sirius over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
@ 1.13-1.5%
Under
19.5%
@ 5.14+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Sirius over/under 1.5
Over
48.6%
@ 1.69-6.6%
Under
51.4%
@ 2.08+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
BetVictor
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Sirius over/under 2.5
Over
22.5%
@ 3.13-7.2%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.32+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Sirius over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
@ 6.40-6.1%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.08+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vasteras SK FK, so a minus line means Vasteras SK FK give that many goals of a start and Sirius receive them. At -1, Vasteras SK FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vasteras SK FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vasteras SK FK)
Vasteras SK FK -2
7.0%
@ 21.00+2.5%
Draw -2
10.8%
@ 12.00+2.9%
Sirius +2
82.2%
@ 1.08-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Away
Bet365
1.08
Handicap -1 (Vasteras SK FK)
Vasteras SK FK -1
17.8%
@ 7.20+5.4%
Draw -1
17.8%
@ 5.44+1.3%
Sirius +1
64.4%
@ 1.26-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Away
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Handicap +1 (Vasteras SK FK)
Vasteras SK FK +1
61.2%
@ 1.84+12.9%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 3.76-5.0%
Sirius -1
20.1%
@ 3.18-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Away
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Handicap +2 (Vasteras SK FK)
Vasteras SK FK +2
79.9%
@ 1.30+11.3%
Draw +2
11.9%
@ 5.30-5.0%
Sirius -2
8.2%
@ 6.14-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Away
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vasteras SK FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.77
0.62
0.88
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.69
0.83
0.58
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sirius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.50
0.56
1.14
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.26
0.57
1.25
0.75
1.27
0.36
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.00
2.25
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.1%
@ 1.26+1.8%
Under 0.5
24.9%
@ 3.45-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
William Hil
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.27-2.3%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.57+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 5.20-4.2%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.13+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Under
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.1%
@ 2.12+1.3%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.65-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Vasteras SK FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
@ 6.69-2.6%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.07+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.90
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Vasteras SK FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 19.25-2.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Sirius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.5%
@ 1.65-2.7%
Under
46.5%
@ 2.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Sirius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.8%
@ 4.19-4.3%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.19+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Sirius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
@ 10.17-4.4%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vasteras SK FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.08
0.54
0.82
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.69
1.00
0.58
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sirius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.73
1.31
0.56
1.21
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.17
0.87
1.25
0.58
1.09
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.29
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.5%
@ 1.16+1.9%
Under 0.5
17.5%
@ 4.80-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.90
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.4%
@ 1.77-2.2%
Under 1.5
49.6%
@ 1.96+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Bet365
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.6%
@ 3.35-4.0%
Under 2.5
76.4%
@ 1.28+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.2%
@ 1.78-0.8%
Under
48.8%
@ 1.94+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Vasteras SK FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
@ 4.83-3.7%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.15+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Vasteras SK FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 11.62-5.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Sirius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.4%
@ 1.44-1.9%
Under
37.6%
@ 2.60+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Sirius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.9%
@ 3.07-6.2%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.32+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Sirius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.7%
@ 7.60-4.5%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.06+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.0%
Under 6.5
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+1.6%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-0.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+4.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+6.1%
Under 5.5
89.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
+1.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
+2.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.13
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+4.2%
Under 5.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
+3.7%
Over 1.5
83.8%
1.16
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+3.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+1.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.2%
1.19
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-
+4.3%
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
80.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
-1.5%
Home +2 handicap
79.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
-
+11.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
79.4%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
-4.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
79.0%
1.30
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+7.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.2%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+0.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
77.5%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+7.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.28
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
+4.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.1%
1.32
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
-
+6.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
1.26
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+1.8%
Home or Away
74.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-1.3%
Under 4.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
-
+1.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vasteras SK FK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mikkel Ladefoged43%
Bonaventure Lendambi29%
Taonsa Axel17%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva12%
Karl Gunnarsson11%
Jens Magnusson8%
Mattias Hellisdal7%
Marcus Baggesen6%
Simon Gefvert5%
Herman Magnusson5%
Philip Bonde5%
Abdelrahman Boudah0%
Victor Wernersson0%
Jonathan Ring0%
Ismet Lushaku0%
Elis Jäger0%
Madiou Keita0%
Mamadou Diagne0%
Jonathan Karlsson0%
Musab Abdi Mohamud0%
Jack Tagesson0%
Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mikkel Ladefoged29%
Bonaventure Lendambi29%
Victor Wernersson18%
Jens Magnusson17%
Madiou Keita17%
Jonathan Ring14%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva12%
Taonsa Axel11%
Herman Magnusson11%
Mamadou Diagne11%
Ismet Lushaku8%
Mattias Hellisdal7%
Marcus Baggesen6%
Jonathan Karlsson6%
Simon Gefvert5%
Karl Gunnarsson5%
Elis Jäger5%
Abdelrahman Boudah0%
Philip Bonde0%
Musab Abdi Mohamud0%
Jack Tagesson0%
Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ismet Lushaku25%
Marcus Baggesen25%
Jonathan Ring14%
Mattias Hellisdal14%
Simon Gefvert11%
Karl Gunnarsson11%
Abdelrahman Boudah8%
Jens Magnusson8%
Mikkel Ladefoged7%
Mamadou Diagne5%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva0%
Victor Wernersson0%
Herman Magnusson0%
Elis Jäger0%
Madiou Keita0%
Jonathan Karlsson0%
Philip Bonde0%
Taonsa Axel0%
Musab Abdi Mohamud0%
Jack Tagesson0%
Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist0%
Bonaventure Lendambi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Taonsa Axel22%
Mikkel Ladefoged21%
Jonathan Ring14%
Bonaventure Lendambi14%
Frédéric Nsabiyumva12%
Karl Gunnarsson11%
Mamadou Diagne5%
Abdelrahman Boudah0%
Victor Wernersson0%
Ismet Lushaku0%
Simon Gefvert0%
Herman Magnusson0%
Jens Magnusson0%
Elis Jäger0%
Mattias Hellisdal0%
Madiou Keita0%
Marcus Baggesen0%
Jonathan Karlsson0%
Philip Bonde0%
Musab Abdi Mohamud0%
Jack Tagesson0%
Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist0%
Sirius
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Ure67%
Isak Bjerkebo58%
Mohamed Soumah25%
August Ljungberg20%
Neo Jönsson18%
Tobias Anker12%
Henrik Castegren12%
M. Lindberg11%
V. Svensson11%
Victor Ekstrom10%
Odera Samuel Adindu7%
Oscar Krusnell0%
S. Sandberg0%
Joakim Persson0%
M. Heier0%
Noel Milleskog0%
D. Celic0%
C. Nildén0%
Matthias Nartey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Heier28%
Oscar Krusnell22%
Tobias Anker19%
Mohamed Soumah19%
Neo Jönsson18%
M. Lindberg11%
D. Celic11%
Victor Ekstrom10%
Joakim Persson8%
C. Nildén7%
Odera Samuel Adindu7%
V. Svensson5%
S. Sandberg0%
Henrik Castegren0%
Noel Milleskog0%
R. Ure0%
Isak Bjerkebo0%
August Ljungberg0%
Matthias Nartey0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isak Bjerkebo26%
August Ljungberg20%
Neo Jönsson18%
Oscar Krusnell17%
Joakim Persson17%
M. Lindberg16%
V. Svensson16%
R. Ure13%
M. Heier11%
Tobias Anker6%
S. Sandberg0%
Henrik Castegren0%
Noel Milleskog0%
Mohamed Soumah0%
D. Celic0%
C. Nildén0%
Victor Ekstrom0%
Matthias Nartey0%
Odera Samuel Adindu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isak Bjerkebo58%
R. Ure20%
August Ljungberg20%
Neo Jönsson18%
V. Svensson5%
Oscar Krusnell0%
S. Sandberg0%
Henrik Castegren0%
M. Lindberg0%
Joakim Persson0%
Tobias Anker0%
M. Heier0%
Noel Milleskog0%
Mohamed Soumah0%
D. Celic0%
C. Nildén0%
Victor Ekstrom0%
Matthias Nartey0%
Odera Samuel Adindu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Vasteras SK FK's squad is €18m less valuable than Sirius's (€10m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Vasteras SK FK's attack is €15m less valuable than Sirius's (€3m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
Vasteras SK FK's midfield is €2m less valuable than Sirius's (€3m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Vasteras SK FK and Sirius have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
IF Elfsborg
BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad