Vejle host Hillerød at home in the Denmark 1. Division, with the home side coming off a win against HB Koge. Vejle's recent form has been mixed, but they've shown attacking prowess, scoring an average of 1.33 goals per game at home. However, they've also conceded 1.5 goals on average, suggesting a high-scoring match.
The model predicts a 61% chance of a home win, with a 22% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 3.3, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10% probability.
Hillerød, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring 0.91 goals per game and conceding 1.91. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a 84.6% probability and a 7% edge. The model's selection, Over 1.5, is the most likely outcome, with a 84.6% probability. The home win percentage is 61%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 18%.
Results analysis
The win extends Vejle's run of two consecutive victories. A five-goal thriller unfolded, with Vejle ultimately emerging victorious at home, securing a 5-4 result. The model correctly called a home win, the favourite with a 61% pre-match probability. This prediction proved accurate, as Vejle's home form has been solid, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in similar strength matches. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 84.6% probability, while the most likely score outcome of 3 total goals was narrowly missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vejle win✓ Hit
60.6%
Avg Implied 58.6% · @ 1.57
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Dafabet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.94
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Hillerød win✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 18.0% · @ 5.09
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.60
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vejle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.83
1.31
1.62
1.47
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.71
1.25
2.00
1.33
3.67
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.62
1.25
1.38
1.38
1.77
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.29
1.00
1.88
1.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.22
1.37
1.31
0.92
1.14
1.79
vs Weaker (2)
7.00
0.50
-
-
7.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
@ 1.20+7.2%
Under 1.5
15.4%
@ 4.11-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.25
BetVictor
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.3%
@ 1.68+7.7%
Under 2.5
36.7%
@ 2.10-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
888Sport
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.2%
@ 2.65+6.3%
Under 3.5
58.8%
@ 1.42-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.65
10Bet
2.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
@ 1.70+5.9%
No
40.0%
@ 2.01-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
No
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 6.97+3.7%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.24+3.8%
2-0
8.9%@ 7.47+3.0%
1-0
7.4%@ 7.11+1.2%
3-1
7.1%@ 11.03+3.1%
3-0
6.4%@ 11.07+2.5%
2-2
5.4%@ 13.31+2.1%
1-2
5.0%@ 14.44+2.0%
Vejle goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.3%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
7.4%
10%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.4%
7.1%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.5%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vejle goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Vejle is 1.67 points better than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Vejle is 1.00 goals better than Hillerød in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Vejle is 0.33 goals better than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vejle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.31
0.85
0.53
1.18
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.29
0.25
0.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
1.00
0.25
0.88
0.62
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.52
0.62
0.31
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vejle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vejle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.00
0.77
0.94
0.82
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.43
1.00
1.25
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.77
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
0.71
0.64
1.38
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.85
0.69
0.62
0.79
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
5.50
0.00
-
-
5.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vejle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+7.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vejle · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anders Jacobsen25%
Christian Gammelgaard25%
Mikkel Duelund24%
Stefan Velkov20%
Jelle Duin17%
Tobias Bach15%
Amin Chiakha14%
Yusuf Faghir13%
Giorgi Tabatadze9%
Andrew Hjulsager8%
Abdoulaye Camara5%
Bismark Edjeodji4%
Lasse Flø4%
Lasse Nielsen0%
Thomas Gundelund0%
Jonathan Amon0%
Christian Sørensen0%
Alexi Pitu0%
Igor Vekić0%
Masaki Murata0%
Mike Vestergård0%
Mads Enggård0%
Valdemar Lund0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Tobias Lauritsen0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giorgi Tabatadze36%
Stefan Velkov30%
Lasse Nielsen26%
Mads Enggård20%
Tobias Bach20%
Mike Vestergård19%
Andrew Hjulsager17%
Bismark Edjeodji17%
Mikkel Duelund16%
Alexi Pitu12%
Valdemar Lund11%
Christian Sørensen8%
Amin Chiakha7%
Lasse Flø7%
Thomas Gundelund7%
Tobias Lauritsen7%
Christian Gammelgaard6%
Igor Vekić4%
Anders Jacobsen0%
Jonathan Amon0%
Jelle Duin0%
Masaki Murata0%
Yusuf Faghir0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Abdoulaye Camara0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Hjulsager17%
Tobias Bach15%
Anders Jacobsen12%
Christian Gammelgaard12%
Christian Sørensen12%
Giorgi Tabatadze9%
Lasse Flø7%
Thomas Gundelund7%
Tobias Lauritsen7%
Bismark Edjeodji4%
Mikkel Duelund4%
Mads Enggård4%
Lasse Nielsen4%
Mike Vestergård3%
Jonathan Amon0%
Stefan Velkov0%
Jelle Duin0%
Alexi Pitu0%
Igor Vekić0%
Masaki Murata0%
Yusuf Faghir0%
Valdemar Lund0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Amin Chiakha0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Abdoulaye Camara0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amin Chiakha21%
Yusuf Faghir13%
Andrew Hjulsager12%
Mikkel Duelund12%
Tobias Bach10%
Christian Gammelgaard9%
Stefan Velkov5%
Christian Sørensen4%
Lasse Nielsen0%
Thomas Gundelund0%
Anders Jacobsen0%
Jonathan Amon0%
Jelle Duin0%
Alexi Pitu0%
Igor Vekić0%
Masaki Murata0%
Mike Vestergård0%
Mads Enggård0%
Valdemar Lund0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Giorgi Tabatadze0%
Tobias Lauritsen0%
Lasse Flø0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Bismark Edjeodji0%
Abdoulaye Camara0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Vejle's squad is €5m more valuable than Hillerød's (€9m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Vejle's attack is €2m more valuable than Hillerød's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Vejle and Hillerød have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Vejle's defence is €2m more valuable than Hillerød's (€4m vs €2m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hvidovre
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Esbjerg
HB Koge