This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSV Hartberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.27
1.55
1.37
1.11
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.62
1.00
1.40
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.59
1.14
1.50
1.67
1.62
0.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Velden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
92.5%
Under 1.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
78.4%
Under 2.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.7%
Under 3.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.5%
No
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.2%
1-3
8.1%
0-2
6.9%
0-3
6.9%
1-1
6.1%
1-4
6.1%
0-4
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
Velden goals ↓
TSV Hartberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
4.1%
6.9%
6.9%
5.1%
1
1.3%
6.1%
8.2%
8.1%
6.1%
2
1.1%
3.3%
4.9%
4.8%
3.6%
3
0.4%
1.3%
1.9%
1.9%
1.4%
4
0.1%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velden goals (down), columns = TSV Hartberg goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
TSV Hartberg
2.50
Red Bull Salzburg
2.50
Austria Vienna
2.40
Austria Klagenfurt
2.33
Wolfsberger AC
2.33
Stripfing
2.25
Schwarz-Weià Bregenz
2.25
Lask Linz
2.20
WSG Wattens
2.00
SV Horn
2.00
Austria Lustenau
2.00
Rapid Vienna
2.00
FC BW Linz
2.00
Voitsberg
2.00
Sturm Graz
1.75
Fach-Donaufeld
1.50
SVG Reichenau
1.50
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.50
Ried
1.50
Admira Wacker
1.50
SKU Amstetten
1.50
WSPG Wels
1.50
SKN ST. Polten
1.50
First Vienna
1.50
SV Kapfenberg
1.50
Grazer AK
1.33
Krems / Rehberg
1.00
Hohenems
1.00
Velden
1.00
Weiz
1.00
Dinamo Helfort
0.94
Hirschwang
0.94
Jennersdorf
0.94
Union VÃķcklamarkt
0.94
Wolfsberg
0.94
Lauterach
0.94
Tillmitsch
0.94
Kalsdorf
0.94
Kuchl
0.94
Lendorf
0.94
Parndorf
0.94
Wiener SC
0.94
Retz
0.94
Wacker Innsbruck
0.94
Oedt
0.50
SV Lafnitz
0.50
Austria Salzburg
0.00
Oberwart
0.00
Wals-GrÞnau
0.00
Bischofshofen
0.00
Donau
0.00
Gurten
0.00
Wohnbau Dietach
0.00
Imst
0.00
Traiskirchen
0.00
Schwaz
0.00
Treibach
0.00
Mannsdorf-GroÃenzersdorf
0.00
Pinzgau Saalfelden
0.00
RÃķthis
0.00
Neusiedl
0.00
Dornbirn
0.00
SCR Altach
0.00
Floridsdorfer AC
0.00
Velden is 1.50 points worse than TSV Hartberg in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.50).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
6.00
Hohenems
4.00
Grazer AK
4.00
TSV Hartberg
3.83
Austria Klagenfurt
3.67
Red Bull Salzburg
3.50
Oedt
3.00
Admira Wacker
3.00
SV Kapfenberg
3.00
Wolfsberger AC
2.50
SKU Amstetten
2.50
Austria Vienna
2.40
WSG Wattens
2.33
FC BW Linz
2.33
Lask Linz
2.20
Krems / Rehberg
2.00
Wallern / Marienkirchen
2.00
Velden
2.00
Weiz
2.00
Rapid Vienna
2.00
Voitsberg
2.00
Stripfing
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.75
Schwarz-Weià Bregenz
1.75
SV Horn
1.67
Austria Lustenau
1.67
Dinamo Helfort
1.55
Hirschwang
1.55
Jennersdorf
1.55
Union VÃķcklamarkt
1.55
Wolfsberg
1.55
Lauterach
1.55
Tillmitsch
1.55
Kalsdorf
1.55
Kuchl
1.55
Lendorf
1.55
Parndorf
1.55
Wiener SC
1.55
Retz
1.55
Wacker Innsbruck
1.55
Fach-Donaufeld
1.50
SKN ST. Polten
1.50
First Vienna
1.50
Austria Salzburg
1.00
Wals-GrÞnau
1.00
Bischofshofen
1.00
Traiskirchen
1.00
SVG Reichenau
1.00
Treibach
1.00
Mannsdorf-GroÃenzersdorf
1.00
SV Lafnitz
1.00
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
WSPG Wels
1.00
Oberwart
0.00
Donau
0.00
Gurten
0.00
Wohnbau Dietach
0.00
Imst
0.00
Schwaz
0.00
Pinzgau Saalfelden
0.00
RÃķthis
0.00
Neusiedl
0.00
Dornbirn
0.00
SCR Altach
0.00
Velden is 1.83 goals worse than TSV Hartberg in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 3.83).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Red Bull Salzburg
0.25
Austria Klagenfurt
0.33
TSV Hartberg
0.33
Wolfsberger AC
0.50
WSPG Wels
0.50
Lask Linz
0.60
Austria Vienna
0.60
SV Horn
0.67
FC BW Linz
0.67
Voitsberg
0.67
Stripfing
0.75
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.00
Rapid Vienna
1.00
Schwarz-Weià Bregenz
1.00
Grazer AK
1.33
Fach-Donaufeld
1.50
Ried
1.50
Sturm Graz
1.50
SV Kapfenberg
1.50
WSG Wattens
1.67
Austria Lustenau
1.67
Austria Salzburg
2.00
Oberwart
2.00
Krems / Rehberg
2.00
Wals-GrÞnau
2.00
Wohnbau Dietach
2.00
Schwaz
2.00
Velden
2.00
Weiz
2.00
Neusiedl
2.00
SCR Altach
2.00
Floridsdorfer AC
2.00
Admira Wacker
2.00
SKU Amstetten
2.00
SKN ST. Polten
2.00
First Vienna
2.00
Dinamo Helfort
2.85
Hirschwang
2.85
Jennersdorf
2.85
Union VÃķcklamarkt
2.85
Wolfsberg
2.85
Lauterach
2.85
Tillmitsch
2.85
Kalsdorf
2.85
Kuchl
2.85
Lendorf
2.85
Parndorf
2.85
Wiener SC
2.85
Retz
2.85
Wacker Innsbruck
2.85
Donau
3.00
Gurten
3.00
Imst
3.00
Mannsdorf-GroÃenzersdorf
3.00
Oedt
3.50
Traiskirchen
4.00
Hohenems
4.00
SV Lafnitz
4.00
SVG Reichenau
5.00
Treibach
6.00
Pinzgau Saalfelden
6.00
Dornbirn
6.00
Bischofshofen
11.00
RÃķthis
11.00
Velden is 1.67 goals worse than TSV Hartberg in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.33).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Velden or Drawâ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
12%
15%
73%
covers Velden + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velden or TSV Hartbergâ Miss
84.6%
Avg Implied -
12%
15%
73%
covers Velden + TSV Hartberg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or TSV Hartbergâ Hit
88.4%
Avg Implied -
12%
15%
73%
covers Draw + TSV Hartberg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Velden over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velden over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velden over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velden over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
94.9%
Under
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
57.1%
Under
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Velden, so a minus line means Velden give that many goals of a start and TSV Hartberg receive them. At -1, Velden must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Velden win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Velden)Actual: TSV Hartberg
Velden -2
1.3%
Draw -2
3.1%
TSV Hartberg +2
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Velden)Actual: TSV Hartberg
Velden -1
4.4%
Draw -1
7.2%
TSV Hartberg +1
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Velden)Actual: Velden
Velden +1
27.0%
Draw +1
18.8%
TSV Hartberg -1
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Velden)Actual: Velden
Velden +2
45.8%
Draw +2
19.6%
TSV Hartberg -2
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Velden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSV Hartberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.18
0.73
0.58
0.37
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.88
0.00
0.80
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.36
0.33
0.67
0.69
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Velden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Velden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSV Hartberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.09
0.82
0.79
0.74
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
1.00
0.60
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.77
1.17
1.00
0.94
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Velden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 7.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Draw or Away
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +1 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Away over 1.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 2.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 5.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away win
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
TSV Hartberg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elias Havel43%
Lukas Fridrikas15%
Luca Pazourek15%
Jed Drew15%
Marco Hoffmann13%
Fabian Wilfinger10%
Patrik MijiÄ8%
Jurgen Heil7%
Lukas Spendlhofer7%
Dominik Prokop7%
Maximilian Fillafer7%
Dominic Vincze4%
Damjan KovaÄeviÄ4%
Maximilian Hennig4%
Tobias Kainz3%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian GÃķlles0%
Youba Diarra0%
Benjamin MarkuÅĄ0%
Tom HÞlsmann0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Habib Anas Coulibaly0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
David Korherr0%
Musibau Aziz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tobias Kainz20%
Maximilian Fillafer20%
Tom HÞlsmann20%
Youba Diarra19%
Jurgen Heil19%
Lukas Spendlhofer14%
Dominik Prokop14%
Konstantin Schopp14%
Marco Hoffmann13%
Musibau Aziz12%
Lukas Fridrikas12%
Habib Anas Coulibaly11%
Maximilian Hennig11%
Elias Havel10%
Benjamin MarkuÅĄ9%
Dominic Vincze8%
Fabian Wilfinger6%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian GÃķlles0%
Patrik MijiÄ0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Jed Drew0%
Damjan KovaÄeviÄ0%
David Korherr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tobias Kainz17%
Jed Drew15%
Maximilian Hennig14%
Youba Diarra12%
Elias Havel10%
Patrik MijiÄ8%
Jurgen Heil7%
Tom HÞlsmann7%
Habib Anas Coulibaly6%
Damjan KovaÄeviÄ4%
Lukas Fridrikas4%
Lukas Spendlhofer4%
Fabian Wilfinger3%
Benjamin MarkuÅĄ3%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian GÃķlles0%
Dominik Prokop0%
Maximilian Fillafer0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Dominic Vincze0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Marco Hoffmann0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
David Korherr0%
Musibau Aziz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elias Havel30%
Jed Drew8%
Lukas Fridrikas4%
Lukas Spendlhofer4%
Tobias Kainz3%
Marco Hoffmann3%
Benjamin MarkuÅĄ3%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian GÃķlles0%
Dominik Prokop0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Youba Diarra0%
Patrik MijiÄ0%
Maximilian Fillafer0%
Tom HÞlsmann0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Dominic Vincze0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Fabian Wilfinger0%
Maximilian Hennig0%
Habib Anas Coulibaly0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
Damjan KovaÄeviÄ0%
David Korherr0%
Musibau Aziz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Austria: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →