Veles is coming off a defeat, having lost their last two matches at home, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded. Meanwhile, Nizhny Novgorod is on a 4-game winning run, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.4 conceded away from home against similar opponents. The model predicts a 45% chance of an away win, making it the favourite, with an expected total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12% probability.
The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with an 81.7% probability, and a 13% edge. This indicates that the model expects a relatively high-scoring match.
The probabilities for the match result are 29% for Veles to win, 26% for a draw, and 45% for Nizhny Novgorod to win. The home win percentage is 29%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 45%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Veles overturned expectations, winning 3-2 after a win-loss-win-win-loss run that left them on a high. The pre-match favourite was the away side, Nizhny Novgorod, with a 45 % chance of triumph; the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections proved mixed: Home under 3.5 goals hit with a 95.4 % probability, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 90.6 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 87.1 %, Home under 2.5 goals missed at 85.1 %, Away over 0.5 goals hit at 81.9 %, and Over 1.5 hit at 81.7 %. The final score of 3-2 confirmed the home win, defying the predicted 2-1 most likely outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Veles win✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.74
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.02
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Dafabet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.56
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.80
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Dafabet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Nizhny Novgorod win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied 54.5% · @ 1.70
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Dafabet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Veles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.67
1.33
0.80
1.13
2.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.76
1.38
0.77
1.17
2.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.57
1.38
1.12
1.14
2.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.25
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.13
2.25
1.00
1.43
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Veles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
@ 1.29+10.9%
Under 1.5
18.3%
@ 3.13-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.31
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Superbet
2.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
@ 2.03+11.9%
Under 2.5
41.6%
@ 1.77-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.09
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
SBO
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.0%
@ 3.40+9.1%
Under 3.5
64.0%
@ 1.25-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.58
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.2%
@ 1.90+12.7%
No
38.8%
@ 1.79-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
No
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.26+5.1%
1-2
9.3%@ 7.71+3.7%
2-1
7.2%@ 15.29+4.4%
0-1
7.1%@ 5.59-0.5%
0-2
7.0%@ 6.99+0.9%
2-2
6.2%@ 16.75+3.6%
0-0
5.9%@ 8.88+1.1%
1-0
5.3%@ 10.87+1.3%
Veles goals ↓
Nizhny Novgorod goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.1%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
1
5.3%
12%
9.3%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.2%
7.2%
6.2%
3.5%
1.5%
3
1.9%
3.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Veles goals (down), columns = Nizhny Novgorod goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Veles is 0.14 points worse than Nizhny Novgorod in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Veles is 1.43 goals worse than Nizhny Novgorod in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Veles and Nizhny Novgorod are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Veles is 3.5 percentage points better than Nizhny Novgorod in terms of average possession (54% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Veles
For 4.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nizhny Novgorod
For 4.7 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Veles
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (43)
9.0
8.8
9.3
1.6
1.8
1.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
10.0
8.0
11.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
8.8
8.9
8.6
1.5
1.8
1.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
38%
29%
23%
27%
19%
-
-
-
% under line
67%
62%
71%
77%
73%
81%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.0
10.8
4.2
4.6
3.8
28.5
29.0
27.9
vs Stronger (26)
10.6
11.1
10.2
4.2
5.2
3.4
28.2
30.1
26.7
vs Similar (24)
10.2
9.1
11.6
4.2
4.1
4.4
28.8
28.0
30.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
43%
65%
58%
73%
42%
98%
100%
95%
% under line
46%
57%
35%
42%
27%
58%
2%
0%
5%
This opponent (Veles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
FC Sochi
9.2
Veles
9.0
Ural
9.0
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
FK Neftekhimik
7.5
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.0
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Veles
4.2
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.1%
@ 1.76-7.1%
Under 9.5
54.9%
@ 1.93+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Veles or Draw✓ Hit
54.6%
Avg Implied 44.1% · @ 2.10
Edge
+10.6%
29%
26%
45%
covers Veles + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.20
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
1.97
Veles or Nizhny Novgorod✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.6%
29%
26%
45%
covers Veles + Nizhny Novgorod
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
SBO
1.17
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod✗ Miss
71.2%
Avg Implied 81.2% · @ 1.14
Edge
-9.9%
29%
26%
45%
covers Draw + Nizhny Novgorod
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
SBO
1.08
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Veles over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.4%
@ 1.59+15.3%
Under
26.6%
@ 2.22-15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Veles over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.2%
@ 3.99+15.1%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.21-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.17
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Veles over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.9%
@ 9.10-85.1%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.10
Under
No market prices yet.
Veles over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.9%
@ 1.16+2.7%
Under
18.1%
@ 4.38-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.35
Superbet
4.00
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.88+1.0%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.87-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.80
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.5%
@ 3.71-0.4%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.23+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.74
Pinnacle
3.74
Superbet
3.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 8.60-1.1%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.01+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
Under
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Veles, so a minus line means Veles give that many goals of a start and Nizhny Novgorod receive them. At -1, Veles must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Veles win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Veles)Actual: Nizhny Novgorod
Veles -2
4.5%
Draw -2
8.5%
Nizhny Novgorod +2
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Veles)Actual: Draw
Veles -1
12.9%
@ 6.75+1.2%
Draw -1
15.8%
@ 4.10-3.5%
Nizhny Novgorod +1
71.2%
@ 1.15+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.75
Draw
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap +1 (Veles)Actual: Veles
Veles +1
54.6%
@ 2.09+11.9%
Draw +1
20.7%
@ 3.40-5.6%
Nizhny Novgorod -1
24.7%
@ 2.89-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.09
Draw
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.89
Handicap +2 (Veles)Actual: Veles
Veles +2
75.3%
@ 1.32+7.5%
Draw +2
14.1%
@ 5.10-3.5%
Nizhny Novgorod -2
10.6%
@ 6.10-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Marathonbet
6.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Veles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.53
0.33
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.76
0.62
0.31
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.81
0.38
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.87
0.50
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.33
1.12
0.25
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Veles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Veles over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Veles over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Veles over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Veles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.80
0.47
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
1.00
0.77
0.46
0.67
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.56
0.75
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.13
0.00
0.75
0.57
1.57
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
1.12
0.75
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Veles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Veles over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Veles over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Veles over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.6%
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.9%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.7%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
-
-
+8.1%
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.5%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.3%
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.1%
1.24
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
SBO
1.17
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.4%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
-
+15.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
71.2%
1.14
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
SBO
1.08
-
-9.9%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
71.2%
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nizhny Novgorod · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Manuel Boselli38%
Adrián Balboa25%
Olakunle Olusegun19%
Thiago Vecino14%
Daniil Lesovoy12%
Vyacheslav Grulev10%
Luka Tičić8%
Renaldo Cephas6%
Sven Karič3%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Nikita Kakkoev0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Juan Castillo0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Yuriy Koledin0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Egor Smelov0%
Maksim Shnaptsev0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Manuel Boselli50%
Viktor Aleksandrov37%
Edgardo Fariña36%
Adrián Balboa25%
Andrey Ivlev24%
Renaldo Cephas22%
Juan Castillo22%
Matvey Urvantsev20%
Mamadou Maiga18%
Nikita Kakkoev18%
Maksim Shnaptsev17%
Nikita Ermakov17%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy17%
Daniil Lesovoy16%
Thiago Vecino14%
Egor Smelov14%
Sven Karič14%
Olakunle Olusegun12%
Nikolay Kalinskiy11%
Vyacheslav Grulev10%
Yuriy Koledin5%
Nikita Medvedev3%
Luka Tičić0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Egor Smelov14%
Olakunle Olusegun12%
Renaldo Cephas11%
Nikita Kakkoev6%
Yuriy Koledin5%
Maksim Shnaptsev4%
Daniil Lesovoy4%
Luka Tičić4%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Adrián Balboa0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Vyacheslav Grulev0%
Sven Karič0%
Juan Manuel Boselli0%
Thiago Vecino0%
Juan Castillo0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Manuel Boselli31%
Vyacheslav Grulev24%
Olakunle Olusegun19%
Adrián Balboa17%
Juan Castillo11%
Alex Opoku Sarfo7%
Daniil Lesovoy4%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Kakkoev0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Sven Karič0%
Luka Tičić0%
Thiago Vecino0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Yuriy Koledin0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Egor Smelov0%
Maksim Shnaptsev0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Veles's squad is €13m less valuable than Nizhny Novgorod's (€5m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Veles's attack is €4m less valuable than Nizhny Novgorod's (€2m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Veles's midfield is €1m less valuable than Nizhny Novgorod's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Veles's defence is €7m less valuable than Nizhny Novgorod's (€2m vs €9m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Sochi
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
Volga Ulyanovsk
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk