Defensive solidity will shape the outlook, with Velež at home having conceded just 0.44 goals per game while scoring 1.89 against similar opposition. Celik, in contrast, has failed to find the net or concede in recent away fixtures. The model therefore favours a narrow home win, the single most likely result, with a 52% chance. A draw sits at 30% and an away win at 18%. The expected total is a tight 2.0 goals, and the most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Velež, a 16.4% probability.
The match is projected to be low-scoring, reflected in the suggested picks: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 5.5 (98.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Home +2 handicap (94.9%), and Under 4.5 (94.3%). Each selection carries its own probability, with no other outcomes linked to the match result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Velež win
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Čelik win
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.67
0.73
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.45
1.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (18)
1.44
0.72
1.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Čelik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.22
1.40
0.80
0.25
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.60
1.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.4%
Under 1.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.2%
Under 2.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.9%
Under 3.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.0%
No
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.4%
0-0
14.3%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
11.8%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
7.8%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.2%
Velež goals ↓
Čelik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
7.8%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
1
16%
13%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
8.1%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
5.3%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
4
1.8%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Čelik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Velež is 0.06 points better than Čelik in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.07 goals worse than Čelik in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Velež is 0.12 goals better than Čelik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Velež or Draw
82.0%
Avg Implied -
51%
31%
18%
covers Velež + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež or Čelik
69.2%
Avg Implied -
51%
31%
18%
covers Velež + Čelik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Čelik
48.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
31%
18%
covers Draw + Čelik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Velež over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 0.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Velež, so a minus line means Velež give that many goals of a start and Čelik receive them. At -1, Velež must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Velež win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Velež)
Velež -2
9.5%
Draw -2
15.9%
Čelik +2
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Velež)
Velež -1
25.4%
Draw -1
25.9%
Čelik +1
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Velež)
Velež +1
82.0%
Draw +1
12.7%
Čelik -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Velež)
Velež +2
94.7%
Draw +2
4.2%
Čelik -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.60
0.60
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.39
1.00
0.30
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Čelik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.56
0.80
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.80
0.33
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Čelik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Velež and Čelik have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Velež and Čelik have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Čelik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Velež and Čelik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina