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Velež vs FK Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Velež
Velež
Vs
64%
21%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✗ Miss
64.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L31W01L11D00D03L40W00D11DH·HAM21/07A·HAM28/07H·ZEL05/08A·LEO12/08H·IGM17/08A·SIR27/08A·SLO30/08H·TUZ05/09A·BOR10/09A·SLO14/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.910.912.000.750.291.00
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (9)1.001.002.000.750.201.20
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W42W10W15L02L11D22D30W14L00DA·BOR24/07H·SLO30/07H·POS06/08H·TUZ10/08A·IGM14/08H·SLO19/08A·ZEL26/08H·LEO30/08A·ZRI04/09H·SIR11/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.701.671.331.502.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.002.33--2.002.33
vs Weaker (7)1.431.431.671.330.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.6%
1-1 ✓
9.6%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
7.2%
2-2
5.0%
0-0
4.7%
Velež goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
01234
04.7%3.0%2.0%0.7%0.2%
17.7%9.6%4.4%1.5%0.4%
29.6%9.8%5.0%1.7%0.4%
37.2%7.4%3.8%1.3%0.3%
44.1%4.1%2.1%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.36
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.61
FK Sarajevo
1.58
Siroki Brijeg
1.45
Velež
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Tuzla City
1.12
Igman Konjic
1.12
Posušje
1.12
Leotar
1.03
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Velež is 0.21 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.00
FK Sarajevo
1.52
Tuzla City
1.30
Igman Konjic
1.27
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.27
Sloga Doboj
1.21
Velež
1.21
Borac Banja Luka
1.18
Siroki Brijeg
1.15
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Leotar
0.88
Posušje
0.85
Velež is 0.30 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zrinjski
0.64
Borac Banja Luka
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Siroki Brijeg
1.09
Velež
1.12
Sloboda Tuzla
1.24
FK Sarajevo
1.39
Tuzla City
1.39
Posušje
1.39
Leotar
1.39
Igman Konjic
1.45
Sloga Doboj
1.67
Velež is 0.27 goals better than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L10W01L11D00D01L10W00D00DH·HAM21/07A·HAM28/07H·ZEL05/08A·LEO12/08H·IGM17/08A·SIR27/08A·SLO30/08H·TUZ05/09A·BOR10/09A·SLO14/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.550.750.500.000.57
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (9)0.330.670.750.500.000.80
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %45% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D02L01L01L00D20W13L00DA·BOR24/07H·SLO30/07H·POS06/08H·TUZ10/08A·IGM14/08H·SLO19/08A·ZEL26/08H·LEO30/08A·ZRI04/09H·SIR11/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.800.330.670.251.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.331.00--0.331.00
vs Weaker (7)0.290.710.330.670.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D21W00D00D00D02L30W00D11DH·HAM21/07A·HAM28/07H·ZEL05/08A·LEO12/08H·IGM17/08A·SIR27/08A·SLO30/08H·TUZ05/09A·BOR10/09A·SLO14/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.361.250.250.290.43
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.331.250.250.200.40
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %73% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W41W10W13L01L10W22D10W01L00DA·BOR24/07H·SLO30/07H·POS06/08H·TUZ10/08A·IGM14/08H·SLO19/08A·ZEL26/08H·LEO30/08A·ZRI04/09H·SIR11/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.901.330.671.251.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.671.33--1.671.33
vs Weaker (7)1.140.711.330.670.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež's squad is €5m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€3m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€2m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež's midfield is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€0m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež's defence is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
VEL wins
0
Draws
0
FS wins

Head-to-head

Velež vs FK Sarajevo · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/22ASloboda Tuzla Vs VEL1-1
10/09/22ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL0-0
05/09/22HVEL Vs Tuzla City4-0
30/08/22ASloga Doboj Vs VEL3-0
27/08/22ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-0
17/08/22HVEL Vs Igman Konjic1-1
12/08/22ALeotar Vs VEL1-0
05/08/22HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo3-1
28/07/22AHamrun Spartans Vs VEL1-0
21/07/22HVEL Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg0-0
04/09/22AZrinjski Vs FS4-1
30/08/22HFS Vs Leotar3-0
26/08/22AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS2-2
19/08/22HFS Vs Sloboda Tuzla1-1
14/08/22AIgman Konjic Vs FS2-0
10/08/22HFS Vs Tuzla City1-5
06/08/22HFS Vs Posušje1-0
30/07/22HFS Vs Sloga Doboj4-2
24/07/22ABorac Banja Luka Vs FS1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDD1.00
HomeLWDW1.75
AwayLDLDD0.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%50%0%
AVG goals1.822.751.29
Over 1.5 %55%75%43%
Over 2.5 %27%50%14%
Over 3.5 %18%50%0%
Scored0.912.000.29
Conceded0.910.751.00
BTTS36%50%29%
Clean Sheet27%25%29%
Corners9.00-9.00
Cards7.00-7.00
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLD1.50
HomeWLDWD1.83
AwayWLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%25%
AVG goals3.303.003.75
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %60%50%75%
Over 3.5 %50%33%75%
Scored1.601.671.50
Conceded1.701.332.25
BTTS60%50%75%
Clean Sheet30%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3378
76%
2.4
6621+45
2.6
70%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.00.6
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3358
55%
1.8
3932+7
2.2
58%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.21.0
-
3Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3353
45%
1.6
4235+7
2.3
67%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.1
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3352
45%
1.6
5046+4
2.9
70%
48%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.4
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3348
39%
1.5
3836+2
2.2
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.21.1
-
6VeležVelež3345
33%
1.4
4037+3
2.3
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.1
-
7Tuzla CityTuzla City3337
30%
1.1
4346-3
2.7
64%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
8Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3337
27%
1.1
4248-6
2.7
70%
48%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3337
30%
1.1
4055-15
2.9
76%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.7
-
10PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
2846-18
2.2
67%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
11LeotarLeotar3334
27%
1.0
2946-17
2.3
64%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3332
21%
1.0
3241-9
2.2
61%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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