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Velež vs FK Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 18/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-2
Velež
Velež
Vs
26%
29%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L11D52W11D32W02L22D10W01L01LH·SIR12/03A·POS16/03A·SIR28/03A·SLO04/04H·RAD13/04A·POS17/04H·IGM22/04A·GOŠ27/04H·ZRI03/05A·BOR10/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.101.360.931.121.25
vs Stronger (8)0.121.250.000.500.252.00
vs Similar (15)1.601.272.001.121.141.43
vs Weaker (7)1.710.571.501.001.800.40
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D20W02L00D21W40W40W01L11DA·GOŠ05/04H·ZRI11/04A·BOR15/04A·BOR19/04H·SLO22/04H·ZEL27/04A·SLO03/05H·SIR07/05H·SIR10/05A·SIR14/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.501.470.601.870.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.640.820.501.000.800.60
vs Weaker (19)2.260.322.110.332.400.30
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.4%
Under 2.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
10.7%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
9.0%
0-2
8.6%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
6.6%
2-2 ✓
4.7%
Velež goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
01234
09.5%11%8.6%4.2%1.5%
17.4%14%9.0%4.4%1.6%
24.5%6.6%4.7%2.3%0.8%
31.6%2.3%1.7%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.48
Borac Banja Luka
2.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.97
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Sloga Doboj
1.33
Velež
1.27
Radnik Bijeljina
1.21
Posušje
1.12
Igman Konjic
0.88
GOŠK Gabela
0.48
Sloboda Tuzla
0.30
Velež is 0.70 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.18
FK Sarajevo
1.79
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.67
Velež
1.36
Radnik Bijeljina
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.30
Posušje
1.09
Sloga Doboj
1.06
Igman Konjic
0.91
GOŠK Gabela
0.85
Sloboda Tuzla
0.64
Velež is 0.42 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.79).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.39
Zrinjski
0.52
FK Sarajevo
0.73
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.15
Velež
1.18
Posušje
1.18
Sloga Doboj
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Radnik Bijeljina
1.58
Igman Konjic
2.00
Sloboda Tuzla
2.15
GOŠK Gabela
2.30
Velež is 0.45 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W20W10W21W02L01L10W00D01LH·SIR12/03A·POS16/03A·SIR28/03A·SLO04/04H·RAD13/04A·POS17/04H·IGM22/04A·GOŠ27/04H·ZRI03/05A·BOR10/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.430.430.620.44
vs Stronger (8)0.000.500.000.250.000.75
vs Similar (15)0.600.530.620.500.570.57
vs Weaker (7)1.000.140.500.501.200.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W02L00D10W20W20W01L00DA·GOŠ05/04H·ZRI11/04A·BOR15/04A·BOR19/04H·SLO22/04H·ZEL27/04A·SLO03/05H·SIR07/05H·SIR10/05A·SIR14/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.300.600.331.070.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.550.170.500.600.60
vs Weaker (19)1.110.160.890.221.300.10
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L32W01L11D00D21W00D01L00DH·SIR12/03A·POS16/03A·SIR28/03A·SLO04/04H·RAD13/04A·POS17/04H·IGM22/04A·GOŠ27/04H·ZRI03/05A·BOR10/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.930.500.500.81
vs Stronger (8)0.120.750.000.250.251.25
vs Similar (15)1.000.731.380.620.570.86
vs Weaker (7)0.710.431.000.500.600.40
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W00D00D11D20W20W00D11DA·GOŠ05/04H·ZRI11/04A·BOR15/04A·BOR19/04H·SLO22/04H·ZEL27/04A·SLO03/05H·SIR07/05H·SIR10/05A·SIR14/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.200.870.270.800.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.270.270.330.500.200.00
vs Weaker (19)1.160.161.220.111.100.20
Clean sheet %80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež's squad is €5m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€3m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€2m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež's midfield is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€0m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež's defence is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
VEL wins
2
Draws
4
FS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs FK Sarajevo · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo0-0
19/10/24AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL4-0
28/04/24AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL3-0
01/12/23HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo1-0
28/08/23AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL1-0
21/05/23HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo3-5
12/03/23AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
19/09/22HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo1-1

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL1-0
03/05/25HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
27/04/25AGOŠK Gabela Vs VEL0-1
22/04/25HVEL Vs Igman Konjic2-2
17/04/25APosušje Vs VEL2-0
13/04/25HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina3-2
04/04/25ASloboda Tuzla Vs VEL1-1
28/03/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL2-5
16/03/25APosušje Vs VEL1-1
12/03/25HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg1-2

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs FS1-1
10/05/25HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg0-1
07/05/25HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg4-0
03/05/25ASloga Doboj Vs FS0-4
27/04/25HFS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-1
22/04/25HFS Vs Sloboda Tuzla0-0
19/04/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs FS2-0
15/04/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs FS0-2
11/04/25HFS Vs Zrinjski0-0
05/04/25AGOŠK Gabela Vs FS0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL1.40
HomeDLWDL1.64
AwayWDLWL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.482.322.64
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %40%44%36%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.321.401.24
Conceded1.160.921.40
BTTS48%56%40%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.88
HomeDDWWL1.81
AwayWWLWD1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%50%54%
AVG goals2.422.312.54
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored1.661.581.75
Conceded0.760.730.79
BTTS38%46%29%
Clean Sheet50%38%62%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3382
79%
2.5
7217+55
2.7
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.20.5
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3381
79%
2.5
5813+45
2.2
64%
30%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.80.4
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3365
55%
2.0
5924+35
2.5
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.80.7
-
4Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3365
61%
2.0
5538+17
2.8
76%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.71.2
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3346
39%
1.4
4346-3
2.7
73%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.31.4
-
6Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3344
39%
1.3
3545-10
2.4
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.4
-
7VeležVelež3342
30%
1.3
4539+6
2.5
70%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.41.2
-
8Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3340
36%
1.2
4452-8
2.9
82%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.31.6
-
9PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
3639-3
2.3
73%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3329
24%
0.9
3066-36
2.9
79%
61%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3316
12%
0.5
2876-48
3.2
88%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3310
3%
0.3
2171-50
2.8
76%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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