Velež will likely be the underdog, with the model picking an away win for FK Sarajevo. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.5% chance. Velež, at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Sarajevo, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.5 scored and 0.9 conceded. The home win probability sits at 19%, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 55%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.5%), and Under 4.5 (87.2%). The model also lists Home under 3.5 goals (98.5% miss), Home under 2.5 goals (93.3% miss), Away +2 handicap (93.2% miss), and Under 4.5 (87.2% miss). The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair with Sarajevo favored to secure the win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Velež pulled off a 4-1 home win, overturning the model’s pick of an away victory that carried a 55% probability. The final score of 4-1 was a clear home triumph, and the model’s favourite was wrong. The pre-match favourite was FK Sarajevo, with a 55% chance of winning, but the result was the opposite. The model’s selections included Under 7.5 goals (99.4% probability) which hit, Under 6.5 (98.2%) hit, Under 5.5 (94.8%) hit, and Away under 3.5 goals (90.5%) hit. The other picks - Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%) missed, Home under 2.5 goals (93.3%) missed, Away +2 handicap (93.2%) missed, and Under 4.5 (87.2%) missed - were not fulfilled. The match saw Velež extend their recent win, while Sarajevo remained unbeaten in their last five.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Velež win✓ Hit
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
1.07
0.60
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.80
1.20
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
0.80
1.20
0.30
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.13
1.79
0.71
1.06
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.70
2.00
0.50
0.33
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.60
0.85
1.70
0.80
1.50
0.90
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
0-1
11.1%
0-2
10.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
0-3
6.0%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
5.5%
Velež goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
11%
10%
6.0%
2.6%
1
5.5%
12%
9.7%
5.5%
2.4%
2
3.1%
5.3%
4.5%
2.6%
1.1%
3
0.9%
1.6%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Posušje
2.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Kruševo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
Velež is 0.62 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Velež is 0.50 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.27
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Slavija
5.00
Velež is 0.75 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Velež or Draw✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
26%
55%
covers Velež + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež or FK Sarajevo✓ Hit
73.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
26%
55%
covers Velež + FK Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Sarajevo✗ Miss
80.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
26%
55%
covers Draw + FK Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Velež over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Velež, so a minus line means Velež give that many goals of a start and FK Sarajevo receive them. At -1, Velež must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Velež win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Velež)Actual: Velež
Velež -2
1.8%
Draw -2
5.0%
FK Sarajevo +2
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Velež)Actual: Velež
Velež -1
6.8%
Draw -1
12.3%
FK Sarajevo +1
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Velež)Actual: Velež
Velež +1
45.2%
Draw +1
23.7%
FK Sarajevo -1
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Velež)Actual: Velež
Velež +2
69.0%
Draw +2
17.2%
FK Sarajevo -2
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.67
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.35
0.40
0.10
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.93
0.07
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.30
1.50
0.00
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.35
0.70
0.10
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.27
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.45
0.80
0.20
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.86
0.64
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.20
1.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.70
0.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →