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Velež vs FK Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 21/05/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 2-3
Velež
Velež
Vs
39%
34%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Velež a 39% win probability against FK Sarajevo in the Bosnia: Premijer Liga on 2026-05-21, with 34% for the draw and 27% for FK Sarajevo. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (15.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (86%).

Results analysis

The upset came early: Velež, riding a win after a string of defeats, fell to FK Sarajevo, who were unbeaten in their last five. The final score was 2-3, an away victory that left the pre-match favourite, Home win, wrong. The model had given Home win a 39 % probability, but it missed. Its other selection, Under 3.5, had an 86.4 % chance and also missed. The expected total of 2 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 were both off the mark. The match proved that even the strongest odds can be overturned on the day.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L01L00D22D30W00D10W11D42WA·RUD15/03A·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO11/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04H·RAD01/05A·POS09/05H·RUD16/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.801.070.470.871.13
vs Stronger (9)0.441.220.251.000.601.40
vs Similar (21)1.190.621.360.271.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W00D21W21W40W10W01L42W22DA·SIR15/03H·VEL22/03A·ZEL04/04H·ZRI11/04A·RAD18/04H·SLO22/04A·POS26/04H·BOR03/05A·RUD09/05H·SIR16/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.771.730.471.071.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.900.901.600.600.201.20
vs Weaker (20)1.650.701.800.401.501.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%025%128%218%39%43%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.7%
Under 1.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.3%
Under 2.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
13.6%
Under 3.5
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.0%
No
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.4%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.0%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.3%
Velež goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
01234
015%11%5.3%1.5%0.3%
114%15%5.8%1.7%0.4%
28.4%7.3%3.2%0.9%0.2%
33.0%2.7%1.2%0.3%0.1%
40.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Velež is 0.39 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.50 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Velež is 0.06 goals better than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L00D12L20W00D10W01L32WA·RUD15/03A·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO11/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04H·RAD01/05A·POS09/05H·RUD16/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.430.470.400.330.47
vs Stronger (9)0.110.780.000.750.200.80
vs Similar (21)0.520.290.640.270.400.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D21W11D10W00D01L01L11DA·SIR15/03H·VEL22/03A·ZEL04/04H·ZRI11/04A·RAD18/04H·SLO22/04A·POS26/04H·BOR03/05A·RUD09/05H·SIR16/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.300.870.200.400.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.700.301.200.400.200.20
vs Weaker (20)0.600.300.700.100.500.50
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D00D10W10W00D00D10W10WA·RUD15/03A·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO11/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04H·RAD01/05A·POS09/05H·RUD16/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.370.600.070.530.67
vs Stronger (9)0.330.440.250.250.400.60
vs Similar (21)0.670.330.730.000.600.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W00D00D10W30W10W00D41W11DA·SIR15/03H·VEL22/03A·ZEL04/04H·ZRI11/04A·RAD18/04H·SLO22/04A·POS26/04H·BOR03/05A·RUD09/05H·SIR16/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.470.870.270.670.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.200.600.400.200.001.00
vs Weaker (20)1.050.401.100.301.000.50
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.586.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (56)
€11m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (25)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
BBL (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (23)
€5m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
ZS (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
VEL wins
3
Draws
4
FS wins

Head-to-head

Velež vs FK Sarajevo · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/26AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL1-0
02/12/25HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo0-0
20/09/25AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL2-0
18/05/25HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo2-2
08/03/25HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo0-0
19/10/24AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL4-0
28/04/24AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL3-0
01/12/23HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo1-0

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HVEL Vs Rudar Prijedor4-2
09/05/26APosušje Vs VEL1-1
01/05/26HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina1-0
25/04/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-0
21/04/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg3-0
18/04/26ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL2-2
11/04/26HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj0-0
03/04/26HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
22/03/26AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL1-0
15/03/26ARudar Prijedor Vs VEL1-2

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg2-2
09/05/26ARudar Prijedor Vs FS2-4
03/05/26HFS Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
26/04/26APosušje Vs FS0-1
22/04/26HFS Vs Sloga Doboj4-0
18/04/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs FS1-2
11/04/26HFS Vs Zrinjski2-1
04/04/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS0-0
22/03/26HFS Vs Velež1-0
15/03/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs FS1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDW1.40
HomeLDWWW1.71
AwayWLDDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%27%
AVG goals2.061.962.15
Over 1.5 %52%42%62%
Over 2.5 %36%33%38%
Over 3.5 %20%25%15%
Scored1.101.211.00
Conceded0.960.751.15
BTTS40%29%50%
Clean Sheet34%54%15%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.70
HomeWWWLD2.04
AwayLDWWW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals2.422.352.50
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %22%19%25%
Scored1.401.621.17
Conceded1.020.731.33
BTTS38%38%38%
Clean Sheet44%50%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
5152.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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