Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring encounter. Velež, averaging half a goal scored and one conceded at home against stronger opposition, will look to keep the ball away from FK Sarajevo, who have been scoring 1.7 goals per away match against weaker teams while conceding a similar tally. The model predicts a home win, with a 36 % chance of victory, a 32 % chance of a draw, and a 33 % chance of an away win. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.7 % probability. The model’s selections are overwhelmingly defensive: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6 %), Under 5.5 (97.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2 %), Under 4.5 (92.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.5 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (89.4 %). Velež’s recent win after a string of losses and Sarajevo’s unbeaten streak in the last five matches add intrigue, but the model’s favourite remains a Velež victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Velež win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.67
0.73
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.45
1.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (18)
1.44
0.72
1.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.77
1.44
0.50
1.21
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.56
1.33
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.48
0.86
1.50
0.50
1.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.2%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
10.6%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.6%
Velež goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
6.8%
2.5%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
6.6%
7.4%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.4%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Velež is 0.39 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.50 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Velež is 0.06 goals better than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Velež or Draw
65.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
32%
35%
covers Velež + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež or FK Sarajevo
68.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
32%
35%
covers Velež + FK Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Sarajevo
66.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
32%
35%
covers Draw + FK Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Velež over/under 0.5
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Velež, so a minus line means Velež give that many goals of a start and FK Sarajevo receive them. At -1, Velež must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Velež win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Velež)
Velež -2
4.4%
Draw -2
9.8%
FK Sarajevo +2
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Velež)
Velež -1
14.2%
Draw -1
19.7%
FK Sarajevo +1
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Velež)
Velež +1
65.5%
Draw +1
20.0%
FK Sarajevo -1
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Velež)
Velež +2
85.4%
Draw +2
10.0%
FK Sarajevo -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.60
0.60
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.39
1.00
0.30
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.88
0.19
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.17
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.48
0.29
0.70
0.10
0.27
0.45
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.8%
Under 0.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
Under 1.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
Under 2.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.80
0.33
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.56
0.31
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.57
0.80
0.40
1.18
0.73
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.2%
Under 0.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.2%
Under 1.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.5%
Under 2.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Velež's squad is €5m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€3m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Velež's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež's midfield is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€0m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Velež's defence is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina