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Velež vs Posušje Result & Analysis

Date: 06/03/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 1-0
Velež
Velež
Vs
46%
34%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Posušje
Posušje
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✓ Hit
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Posušje win✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D11D21W00D21W01L10W10W01LH·RUD29/11H·FK 02/12A·ZRI07/12A·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02H·ZEL21/02A·FK 25/02A·RAD28/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.901.070.640.941.12
vs Stronger (10)0.601.100.801.200.401.00
vs Similar (19)1.210.841.220.331.201.30
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PosušjePosušje

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D20W22D13L11D10W10W03L10WA·RUD09/11H·VEL23/11A·ZRI30/11H·SLO04/12A·BOR07/12A·SIR13/12H·ZEL08/02A·RAD15/02A·FK 21/02H·RUD01/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.130.931.070.811.19
vs Stronger (10)0.601.900.402.000.801.80
vs Similar (20)1.000.751.220.560.820.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%18%028%128%216%37%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.4%
Under 1.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.4%
Under 2.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.5%
Under 3.5
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
33.7%
No
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.1%
1-0 ✓
17.7%
1-1
13.7%
2-0
10.7%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
4.1%
3-0
4.0%
Velež goals ↓
Posušje goals →
01234
018%9.8%3.6%0.8%0.1%
118%14%4.1%0.9%0.1%
211%7.0%2.3%0.5%0.1%
34.0%2.6%0.9%0.2%0.0%
41.1%0.7%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Posušje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Velež is 0.47 points better than Posušje in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.31 goals better than Posušje in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Velež is 0.17 goals better than Posušje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L10W00D10W01L00D00D00DH·RUD29/11H·FK 02/12A·ZRI07/12A·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02H·ZEL21/02A·FK 25/02A·RAD28/02
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.470.360.360.310.56
vs Stronger (10)0.100.700.200.800.000.60
vs Similar (19)0.470.370.440.110.500.60
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PosušjePosušje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W21W12L11D00D10W02L00DA·RUD09/11H·VEL23/11A·ZRI30/11H·SLO04/12A·BOR07/12A·SIR13/12H·ZEL08/02A·RAD15/02A·FK 21/02H·RUD01/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.500.360.560.62
vs Stronger (10)0.400.900.200.800.601.00
vs Similar (20)0.600.300.670.110.550.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D10W11D00D11D00D10W10W01LH·RUD29/11H·FK 02/12A·ZRI07/12A·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02H·ZEL21/02A·FK 25/02A·RAD28/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.430.710.290.620.56
vs Stronger (10)0.500.400.600.400.400.40
vs Similar (19)0.740.470.780.220.700.70
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PosušjePosušje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D10W01L01L00D10W00D01L10WA·RUD09/11H·VEL23/11A·ZRI30/11H·SLO04/12A·BOR07/12A·SIR13/12H·ZEL08/02A·RAD15/02A·FK 21/02H·RUD01/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.630.430.710.250.56
vs Stronger (10)0.201.000.201.200.200.80
vs Similar (20)0.400.450.560.440.270.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.589.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
VEL wins
2
Draws
3
POS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Posušje · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/25APosušje Vs VEL0-0
30/08/25HVEL Vs Posušje0-1
17/04/25APosušje Vs VEL2-0
16/03/25APosušje Vs VEL1-1
26/10/24HVEL Vs Posušje3-0
03/05/24HVEL Vs Posušje2-0
03/03/24APosušje Vs VEL1-0
06/10/23HVEL Vs Posušje2-1

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs VEL1-0
25/02/26AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
21/02/26HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-0
15/02/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0
11/02/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg2-1
07/02/26HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka0-0
13/12/25ASloga Doboj Vs VEL1-2
07/12/25AZrinjski Vs VEL1-1
02/12/25HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo0-0
29/11/25HVEL Vs Rudar Prijedor1-0

PosušjePosušje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/26HPOS Vs Rudar Prijedor1-0
21/02/26AFK Sarajevo Vs POS3-0
15/02/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs POS0-1
08/02/26HPOS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-0
13/12/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs POS1-1
07/12/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs POS3-1
04/12/25HPOS Vs Sloga Doboj2-2
30/11/25AZrinjski Vs POS0-2
23/11/25HPOS Vs Velež0-0
09/11/25ARudar Prijedor Vs POS1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.46
HomeWDDWW1.79
AwayDWLWL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%31%
AVG goals2.142.172.12
Over 1.5 %58%54%62%
Over 2.5 %40%46%35%
Over 3.5 %18%25%12%
Scored1.121.290.96
Conceded1.020.881.15
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet30%42%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Posušje
Posušje
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.02
HomeLDDWW1.13
AwayWLDWL0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%26%26%
AVG goals2.081.962.19
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %42%39%44%
Over 3.5 %10%9%11%
Scored0.920.960.89
Conceded1.161.001.30
BTTS38%43%33%
Clean Sheet34%39%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2010.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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