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Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina Result & Analysis

Date: 01/05/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 1-0
Velež
Velež
Vs
54%
31%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✓ Hit
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W21W01L01L31W00D30W22D30W00DH·FK 11/03A·RUD15/03A·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO08/04H·SLO11/04A·SLO15/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.631.330.470.930.80
vs Stronger (11)0.821.091.001.000.671.17
vs Similar (18)1.330.391.500.201.120.62
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W01L20W00D03L02L12L11D10WH·SLO14/03H·LAK17/03A·BOR21/03H·SIR04/04H·ZRI08/04H·ZEL11/04A·ZRI15/04H·FK 18/04A·POS22/04H·RUD25/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.201.190.810.571.64
vs Stronger (15)0.671.601.001.250.292.00
vs Similar (14)1.140.861.380.380.831.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.7%
Under 1.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.6%
Under 2.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.5%
Under 3.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
33.2%
No
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
18.7%
0-0
16.1%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
12.6%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
3.3%
Velež goals ↓
Radnik Bijeljina goals →
01234
016%7.5%2.5%0.5%0.1%
119%13%3.3%0.6%0.1%
213%7.5%2.2%0.4%0.1%
35.8%3.3%1.0%0.2%0.0%
41.9%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Radnik Bijeljina goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Velež is 0.44 points better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.25 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Velež is 0.28 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D00D01L21W00D30W12L20W00DH·FK 11/03A·RUD15/03A·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO08/04H·SLO11/04A·SLO15/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.330.530.330.400.33
vs Stronger (11)0.270.730.400.800.170.67
vs Similar (18)0.610.110.600.100.620.12
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W00D10W00D02L00D11D11D10WH·SLO14/03H·LAK17/03A·BOR21/03H·SIR04/04H·ZRI08/04H·ZEL11/04A·ZRI15/04H·FK 18/04A·POS22/04H·RUD25/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.620.380.430.79
vs Stronger (15)0.470.730.750.500.141.00
vs Similar (14)0.570.430.500.250.670.67
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W01L00D10W00D00D10W10W00DH·FK 11/03A·RUD15/03A·FK 22/03H·ZRI03/04H·SLO08/04H·SLO11/04A·SLO15/04A·BOR18/04H·SIR21/04A·ZEL25/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.300.800.130.530.47
vs Stronger (11)0.550.360.600.200.500.50
vs Similar (18)0.720.280.900.100.500.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L10W00D01L02L01L00D00DH·SLO14/03H·LAK17/03A·BOR21/03H·SIR04/04H·ZRI08/04H·ZEL11/04A·ZRI15/04H·FK 18/04A·POS22/04H·RUD25/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.630.560.440.140.86
vs Stronger (15)0.200.870.250.750.141.00
vs Similar (14)0.570.430.880.120.170.83
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.570.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
VEL wins
0
Draws
3
RB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs VEL1-0
09/11/25HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina1-0
23/08/25ARadnik Bijeljina Vs VEL3-0
13/04/25HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina3-2
08/02/25HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina2-1
29/11/24HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina2-1
24/08/24ARadnik Bijeljina Vs VEL4-3

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-0
21/04/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg3-0
18/04/26ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL2-2
15/04/26ASloga Doboj Vs VEL0-3
11/04/26HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj0-0
08/04/26HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj3-1
03/04/26HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
22/03/26AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL1-0
15/03/26ARudar Prijedor Vs VEL1-2
11/03/26HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo4-1

Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HRB Vs Rudar Prijedor1-0
22/04/26APosušje Vs RB1-1
18/04/26HRB Vs FK Sarajevo1-2
15/04/26AZrinjski Vs RB2-0
11/04/26HRB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0-3
08/04/26HRB Vs Zrinjski0-0
04/04/26HRB Vs Siroki Brijeg2-0
21/03/26ABorac Banja Luka Vs RB1-0
17/03/26HRB Vs Laktaši4-0
14/03/26HRB Vs Sloga Doboj0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWD1.56
HomeWLWDW1.75
AwayWLWDD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.182.122.23
Over 1.5 %56%50%62%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %20%25%15%
Scored1.241.331.15
Conceded0.940.791.08
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet34%46%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.16
HomeWDLLW1.68
AwayLLLLD0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%48%12%
AVG goals2.462.242.68
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored1.141.440.84
Conceded1.320.801.84
BTTS40%32%48%
Clean Sheet32%52%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2010.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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