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Velež vs Siroki Brijeg Result & Analysis

Date: 20/08/2023
Time: 19:30
Final 1-1
Velež
Velež
Vs
50%
26%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✗ Miss
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D01L01L20W12L33D35L12L50W00DA·TUZ14/04H·ZRI23/04A·SIR26/04H·BOR01/05A·ZEL07/05H·IGM12/05H·FK 21/05A·POS28/05H·ZVI29/07H·GOŠ06/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.101.821.180.691.00
vs Stronger (9)1.001.221.331.670.330.33
vs Similar (16)1.501.312.431.430.781.22
vs Weaker (5)1.400.201.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L01L10W12L11D12L10W12L21W10WH·BOR15/04A·ZEL22/04H·VEL26/04A·FK 29/04H·POS06/05A·SLO15/05H·SLO21/05A·LEO28/05A·POS04/08H·TUZ13/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.171.250.691.071.71
vs Stronger (9)0.891.781.501.750.401.80
vs Similar (19)1.210.891.170.331.291.86
vs Weaker (2)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
Velež goals ↓
Siroki Brijeg goals →
01234
06.6%5.2%3.7%1.4%0.4%
18.5%12%6.4%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.7%5.6%2.2%0.6%
34.9%5.6%3.3%1.3%0.4%
42.1%2.5%1.4%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Siroki Brijeg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
Velež is 0.61 points better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Velež is 0.39 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
Velež is 0.52 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D10W01L31W12L11D30W00DA·TUZ14/04H·ZRI23/04A·SIR26/04H·BOR01/05A·ZEL07/05H·IGM12/05H·FK 21/05A·POS28/05H·ZVI29/07H·GOŠ06/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.400.940.470.150.31
vs Stronger (9)0.330.670.500.830.000.33
vs Similar (16)0.750.381.430.430.220.33
vs Weaker (5)0.600.000.750.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D00D11D11D00D10W10W10W10WH·BOR15/04A·ZEL22/04H·VEL26/04A·FK 29/04H·POS06/05A·SLO15/05H·SLO21/05A·LEO28/05A·POS04/08H·TUZ13/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.440.310.500.64
vs Stronger (9)0.440.670.750.750.200.60
vs Similar (19)0.420.420.330.170.570.86
vs Weaker (2)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L10W11D02L23L01L20W00DA·TUZ14/04H·ZRI23/04A·SIR26/04H·BOR01/05A·ZEL07/05H·IGM12/05H·FK 21/05A·POS28/05H·ZVI29/07H·GOŠ06/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.880.710.540.69
vs Stronger (9)0.670.560.830.830.330.00
vs Similar (16)0.750.941.001.000.560.89
vs Weaker (5)0.800.200.750.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L10W01L00D12L00D02L11D00DH·BOR15/04A·ZEL22/04H·VEL26/04A·FK 29/04H·POS06/05A·SLO15/05H·SLO21/05A·LEO28/05A·POS04/08H·TUZ13/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.810.380.571.07
vs Stronger (9)0.441.110.751.000.201.20
vs Similar (19)0.790.470.830.170.711.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
VEL wins
2
Draws
1
SB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Siroki Brijeg · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0
12/11/22HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg4-4
27/08/22ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-0

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/23HVEL Vs GOŠK Gabela0-0
29/07/23HVEL Vs Zvijezda 095-0
28/05/23APosušje Vs VEL2-1
21/05/23HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo3-5
12/05/23HVEL Vs Igman Konjic3-3
07/05/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-1
01/05/23HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka2-0
26/04/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0
23/04/23HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
14/04/23ATuzla City Vs VEL1-1

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23HSB Vs Tuzla City1-0
04/08/23APosušje Vs SB1-2
28/05/23ALeotar Vs SB2-1
21/05/23HSB Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
15/05/23ASloboda Tuzla Vs SB2-1
06/05/23HSB Vs Posušje1-1
29/04/23AFK Sarajevo Vs SB2-1
26/04/23HSB Vs Velež1-0
22/04/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-0
15/04/23HSB Vs Borac Banja Luka2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWD1.32
HomeWDLWD1.60
AwayWDLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.272.901.53
Over 1.5 %57%65%47%
Over 2.5 %30%40%18%
Over 3.5 %22%40%0%
Scored1.221.750.59
Conceded1.051.150.94
BTTS38%45%29%
Clean Sheet41%45%35%
Corners9.00-9.00
Cards7.00-7.00
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.54
HomeLWDWW2.11
AwayLLLLW0.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%61%24%
AVG goals2.231.892.59
Over 1.5 %57%50%65%
Over 2.5 %37%22%53%
Over 3.5 %17%17%18%
Scored1.171.281.06
Conceded1.060.611.53
BTTS43%33%53%
Clean Sheet46%67%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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