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Velež vs Siroki Brijeg Result & Analysis

Date: 23/11/2024
Time: 19:45
Final 3-1
Velež
Velež
Vs
48%
30%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg win✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D40W01L12L04L30W20W00D12LA·SLO14/09H·SLO20/09A·GOŠ24/09H·ZRI28/09A·BOR12/10A·FK 19/10H·POS26/10A·SVA30/10H·BOR02/11A·ZEL10/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.171.270.731.471.60
vs Stronger (10)0.401.800.400.600.403.00
vs Similar (15)1.600.801.380.501.861.14
vs Weaker (5)2.601.003.002.002.330.33
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-911D01L22D03L33D21W23L03L90W20WH·SLO01/09A·SLO15/09H·GOŠ20/09A·ZRI24/09H·FK 30/09A·POS18/10H·BOR28/10H·ZEL03/11A·TRO06/11H·RAD10/11
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.531.501.641.621.44
vs Stronger (7)1.572.432.002.501.002.33
vs Similar (19)1.211.211.331.331.101.10
vs Weaker (4)3.251.501.001.004.001.67
Clean sheet %17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.3%
Under 2.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
13.7%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.7%
Velež goals ↓
Siroki Brijeg goals →
01234
012%7.9%3.9%1.1%0.2%
114%14%5.3%1.5%0.3%
210%8.7%3.7%1.0%0.2%
34.7%4.0%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.6%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Siroki Brijeg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.48
Borac Banja Luka
2.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.97
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Sloga Doboj
1.33
Velež
1.27
Radnik Bijeljina
1.21
Posušje
1.12
Igman Konjic
0.88
GOŠK Gabela
0.48
Sloboda Tuzla
0.30
Velež is 0.12 points worse than Siroki Brijeg in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.18
FK Sarajevo
1.79
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.67
Velež
1.36
Radnik Bijeljina
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.30
Posušje
1.09
Sloga Doboj
1.06
Igman Konjic
0.91
GOŠK Gabela
0.85
Sloboda Tuzla
0.64
Velež is 0.06 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.39
Zrinjski
0.52
FK Sarajevo
0.73
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.15
Velež
1.18
Posušje
1.18
Sloga Doboj
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Radnik Bijeljina
1.58
Igman Konjic
2.00
Sloboda Tuzla
2.15
GOŠK Gabela
2.30
Velež is 0.21 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D30W01L00D02L00D00D00D00DA·SLO14/09H·SLO20/09A·GOŠ24/09H·ZRI28/09A·BOR12/10A·FK 19/10H·POS26/10A·SVA30/10H·BOR02/11A·ZEL10/11
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.530.400.530.60
vs Stronger (10)0.000.900.000.600.001.20
vs Similar (15)0.670.330.750.250.570.43
vs Weaker (5)1.200.201.000.501.330.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L20W01L11D10W22D00D40W20WH·SLO01/09A·SLO15/09H·GOŠ20/09A·ZRI24/09H·FK 30/09A·POS18/10H·BOR28/10H·ZEL03/11A·TRO06/11H·RAD10/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.670.790.640.750.69
vs Stronger (7)0.711.141.251.250.001.00
vs Similar (19)0.680.420.670.330.700.50
vs Weaker (4)1.251.000.001.001.671.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W00D12L02L30W20W00D12LA·SLO14/09H·SLO20/09A·GOŠ24/09H·ZRI28/09A·BOR12/10A·FK 19/10H·POS26/10A·SVA30/10H·BOR02/11A·ZEL10/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.670.730.330.931.00
vs Stronger (10)0.400.900.400.000.401.80
vs Similar (15)0.930.470.620.251.290.71
vs Weaker (5)1.400.802.001.501.000.33
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D02L02L22D11D01L03L50W00DH·SLO01/09A·SLO15/09H·GOŠ20/09A·ZRI24/09H·FK 30/09A·POS18/10H·BOR28/10H·ZEL03/11A·TRO06/11H·RAD10/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.870.711.000.880.75
vs Stronger (7)0.861.290.751.251.001.33
vs Similar (19)0.530.790.671.000.400.60
vs Weaker (4)2.000.501.000.002.330.67
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
VEL wins
4
Draws
1
SB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Siroki Brijeg · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/24ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-2
11/05/24ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-1
26/11/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL2-2
20/08/23HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg1-1
26/04/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0
12/11/22HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg4-4
27/08/22ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-0

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-1
02/11/24HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka0-0
30/10/24ASvatovac Poljice Vs VEL0-2
26/10/24HVEL Vs Posušje3-0
19/10/24AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL4-0
12/10/24ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL2-1
28/09/24HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
24/09/24AGOŠK Gabela Vs VEL0-4
20/09/24HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj0-0
14/09/24ASloboda Tuzla Vs VEL1-1

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24HSB Vs Radnik Bijeljina2-0
06/11/24ATroglav Livno Vs SB0-9
03/11/24HSB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0-3
28/10/24HSB Vs Borac Banja Luka2-3
18/10/24APosušje Vs SB1-2
30/09/24HSB Vs FK Sarajevo3-3
24/09/24AZrinjski Vs SB3-0
20/09/24HSB Vs GOŠK Gabela2-2
15/09/24ASloga Doboj Vs SB1-0
01/09/24HSB Vs Sloboda Tuzla1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL1.52
HomeDDLWD1.83
AwayWLLWL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%35%
AVG goals2.502.212.77
Over 1.5 %68%67%69%
Over 2.5 %42%33%50%
Over 3.5 %24%17%31%
Scored1.441.541.35
Conceded1.060.671.42
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet42%50%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.22
HomeDDLLW1.42
AwayWLLWW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%31%
AVG goals2.702.672.73
Over 1.5 %74%79%69%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %26%29%23%
Scored1.321.381.27
Conceded1.381.291.46
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3382
79%
2.5
7217+55
2.7
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.20.5
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3381
79%
2.5
5813+45
2.2
64%
30%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.80.4
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3365
55%
2.0
5924+35
2.5
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.80.7
-
4Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3365
61%
2.0
5538+17
2.8
76%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.71.2
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3346
39%
1.4
4346-3
2.7
73%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.31.4
-
6Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3344
39%
1.3
3545-10
2.4
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.4
-
7VeležVelež3342
30%
1.3
4539+6
2.5
70%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.41.2
-
8Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3340
36%
1.2
4452-8
2.9
82%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.31.6
-
9PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
3639-3
2.3
73%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3329
24%
0.9
3066-36
2.9
79%
61%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3316
12%
0.5
2876-48
3.2
88%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3310
3%
0.3
2171-50
2.8
76%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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