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Velež vs Siroki Brijeg Result & Analysis

Date: 25/10/2025
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
Velež
Velež
Vs
42%
31%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✓ Hit
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D31W01L03L01L31W02L13L20W01LH·BOR03/08A·SIR10/08H·ZEL15/08A·RAD23/08H·POS30/08A·RUD13/09A·FK 20/09H·ZRI27/09H·SLO04/10A·BOR19/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.331.361.291.001.38
vs Stronger (9)0.441.330.801.400.001.25
vs Similar (18)1.501.391.621.121.401.60
vs Weaker (3)1.331.002.002.001.000.50
Clean sheet %17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W13L00D10W15L21W10W00D11D10WA·RUD02/08H·VEL10/08A·ZRI17/08H·SLO23/08A·BOR31/08H·FK 14/09H·ZEL21/09A·RAD26/09A·POS03/10H·RUD19/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.231.471.000.801.47
vs Stronger (10)0.601.801.001.000.432.14
vs Similar (19)1.320.951.451.001.120.88
vs Weaker (1)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
11.7%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.1%
Velež goals ↓
Siroki Brijeg goals →
01234
011%8.8%5.1%1.7%0.4%
112%14%6.6%2.2%0.6%
28.4%8.5%4.2%1.4%0.4%
33.6%3.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%
41.2%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Siroki Brijeg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Velež is 0.17 points better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.03 goals worse than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Velež is 0.36 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D01L21W01L02L00D00DH·BOR03/08A·SIR10/08H·ZEL15/08A·RAD23/08H·POS30/08A·RUD13/09A·FK 20/09H·ZRI27/09H·SLO04/10A·BOR19/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.500.640.500.62
vs Stronger (9)0.110.670.200.800.000.50
vs Similar (18)0.610.670.620.500.600.80
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W00D00D02L21W00D00D00D10WA·RUD02/08H·VEL10/08A·ZRI17/08H·SLO23/08A·BOR31/08H·FK 14/09H·ZEL21/09A·RAD26/09A·POS03/10H·RUD19/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.870.330.330.67
vs Stronger (10)0.300.900.670.670.141.00
vs Similar (19)0.680.260.820.180.500.38
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D30W01L03L00D10W01L11D20W01LH·BOR03/08A·SIR10/08H·ZEL15/08A·RAD23/08H·POS30/08A·RUD13/09A·FK 20/09H·ZRI27/09H·SLO04/10A·BOR19/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.860.640.500.75
vs Stronger (9)0.330.670.600.600.000.75
vs Similar (18)0.890.721.000.620.800.80
vs Weaker (3)0.330.671.001.000.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L00D10W13L00D10W00D11D00DA·RUD02/08H·VEL10/08A·ZRI17/08H·SLO23/08A·BOR31/08H·FK 14/09H·ZEL21/09A·RAD26/09A·POS03/10H·RUD19/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.600.670.470.80
vs Stronger (10)0.300.900.330.330.291.14
vs Similar (19)0.630.680.640.820.620.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
VEL wins
1
Draws
2
SB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Siroki Brijeg · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-3
28/03/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL2-5
12/03/25HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg1-2
26/02/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL2-0
23/11/24HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg3-1
18/08/24ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-2
11/05/24ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL0-1
26/11/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL2-2

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL1-0
04/10/25HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj2-0
27/09/25HVEL Vs Zrinjski1-3
20/09/25AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL2-0
13/09/25ARudar Prijedor Vs VEL1-3
30/08/25HVEL Vs Posušje0-1
23/08/25ARadnik Bijeljina Vs VEL3-0
15/08/25HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0-1
10/08/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-3
03/08/25HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka1-1

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/25HSB Vs Rudar Prijedor1-0
03/10/25APosušje Vs SB1-1
26/09/25ARadnik Bijeljina Vs SB0-0
21/09/25HSB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-0
14/09/25HSB Vs FK Sarajevo2-1
31/08/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs SB5-1
23/08/25HSB Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
17/08/25AZrinjski Vs SB0-0
10/08/25HSB Vs Velež1-3
02/08/25ARudar Prijedor Vs SB1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.18
HomeDLLLW1.38
AwayWLWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.582.332.81
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.261.291.23
Conceded1.321.041.58
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.54
HomeLWWWW1.70
AwayWDLDD1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%39%
AVG goals2.702.702.70
Over 1.5 %70%70%70%
Over 2.5 %48%41%57%
Over 3.5 %26%30%22%
Scored1.421.481.35
Conceded1.281.221.35
BTTS46%48%43%
Clean Sheet34%37%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2010.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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