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Velež vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Velež
Velež
Vs
52%
29%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Velež, fresh from a 0-3 loss to Celik, will look to reverse a recent slump and secure the win that the model favours. The odds favour a home victory at 53%, with a draw at 28% and an away win at 19%. The average goal tally is 2.3, so a modest 2-goal match is expected. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13.8% chance. Velež’s home form shows a solid defence, conceding only 0.44 goals per game against similar opposition, while their attack averages 1.89 goals. Siroki Brijeg, playing away, has been more porous, conceding 1.73 goals on average, and their scoring rate sits at 1.0 against similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.3%), Home +2 handicap (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.2%), and Under 4.5 (91.4%). These picks reflect a tight, low-scoring affair with Velež likely to edge it.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg win
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D42W23L03L13L02L20W03L11DA·POS09/05H·ZRI13/05H·RUD16/05H·FK 21/05A·ZRI26/05A·BOR09/08A·BSK16/08H·SLO22/08A·ČEL28/08H·RAD02/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.031.670.730.801.33
vs Stronger (11)1.001.451.401.200.671.67
vs Similar (18)1.440.721.800.501.001.00
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L22D22D40W00D21W21W11D12LA·SLO02/05H·BOR10/05A·FK 16/05A·ZEL21/05H·RAD25/05H·SLO08/08A·ČEL14/08H·RAD22/08A·ZEL29/08H·FK 02/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.401.131.001.001.80
vs Stronger (10)1.001.601.001.331.002.00
vs Similar (20)1.101.301.220.781.001.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.7%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
11.2%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.0%
Velež goals ↓
Siroki Brijeg goals →
01234
011%7.0%3.3%0.9%0.2%
114%13%5.0%1.3%0.3%
211%9.0%3.7%1.0%0.2%
35.5%4.5%1.8%0.5%0.1%
42.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Siroki Brijeg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Velež is 0.17 points better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.03 goals worse than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Velež is 0.36 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Velež or Draw
80.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Velež + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež or Siroki Brijeg
71.2%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Velež + Siroki Brijeg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Siroki Brijeg
48.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Draw + Siroki Brijeg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Velež over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Velež, so a minus line means Velež give that many goals of a start and Siroki Brijeg receive them. At -1, Velež must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Velež win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Velež)
Velež -2
10.8%
Draw -2
16.2%
Siroki Brijeg +2
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Velež)
Velež -1
27.1%
Draw -1
24.7%
Siroki Brijeg +1
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Velež)
Velež +1
80.6%
Draw +1
13.0%
Siroki Brijeg -1
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Velež)
Velež +2
93.6%
Draw +2
4.9%
Siroki Brijeg -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L32W10W02L02L01L10W02L00DA·POS09/05H·ZRI13/05H·RUD16/05H·FK 21/05A·ZRI26/05A·BOR09/08A·BSK16/08H·SLO22/08A·ČEL28/08H·RAD02/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.870.400.330.80
vs Stronger (11)0.360.910.600.600.171.17
vs Similar (18)0.780.391.000.300.500.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D12L20W00D10W11D00D00DA·SLO02/05H·BOR10/05A·FK 16/05A·ZEL21/05H·RAD25/05H·SLO08/08A·ČEL14/08H·RAD22/08A·ZEL29/08H·FK 02/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.530.470.530.93
vs Stronger (10)0.400.500.330.330.500.75
vs Similar (20)0.600.800.670.560.551.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W13L01L11D01L10W01L11DA·POS09/05H·ZRI13/05H·RUD16/05H·FK 21/05A·ZRI26/05A·BOR09/08A·BSK16/08H·SLO22/08A·ČEL28/08H·RAD02/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.430.800.330.470.53
vs Stronger (11)0.640.550.800.600.500.50
vs Similar (18)0.670.330.800.200.500.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D10W20W00D11D10W11D12LA·SLO02/05H·BOR10/05A·FK 16/05A·ZEL21/05H·RAD25/05H·SLO08/08A·ČEL14/08H·RAD22/08A·ZEL29/08H·FK 02/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.600.530.470.87
vs Stronger (10)0.601.100.671.000.501.25
vs Similar (20)0.500.500.560.220.450.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.7%-------
Under 6.599.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals99.0%-------
Under 5.597.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals95.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.6%-------
Home +2 handicap93.6%-------
Under 4.591.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals81.3%-------
Home or Draw80.6%-------
Home +1 handicap80.6%-------
Away under 1.5 goals80.3%-------
Under 3.579.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.3%-------
Away +2 handicap72.9%-------
Home or Away71.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Velež and Siroki Brijeg have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
VEL wins
0
Draws
3
SB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Siroki Brijeg · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg3-0
15/02/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0
11/02/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg2-1
25/10/25HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg1-0
10/08/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-3
28/03/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL2-5
12/03/25HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg1-2
26/02/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL2-0

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina1-1
28/08/26AČelik Vs VEL3-0
22/08/26HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj2-0
16/08/26ABSK Banja Luka Vs VEL2-0
09/08/26ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL3-1
26/05/26AZrinjski Vs VEL3-0
21/05/26HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo2-3
16/05/26HVEL Vs Rudar Prijedor4-2
13/05/26HVEL Vs Zrinjski1-1
09/05/26APosušje Vs VEL1-1

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HSB Vs FK Sarajevo1-2
29/08/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-1
22/08/26HSB Vs Radnik Bijeljina2-1
14/08/26AČelik Vs SB1-2
08/08/26HSB Vs Sloga Doboj0-0
25/05/26HSB Vs Radnik Bijeljina4-0
21/05/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB2-2
16/05/26AFK Sarajevo Vs SB2-2
10/05/26HSB Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
02/05/26ASloga Doboj Vs SB2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.54
HomeDWLWD1.92
AwayDLLLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%56%32%
AVG goals2.142.082.20
Over 1.5 %58%52%64%
Over 2.5 %40%32%48%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.161.400.92
Conceded0.980.681.28
BTTS38%36%40%
Clean Sheet36%52%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDL1.38
HomeLWDWL1.64
AwayLDDWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals2.442.242.64
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.141.241.04
Conceded1.301.001.60
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski515
100%
3.0
133+10
3.2
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.60.6
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka410
75%
2.5
93+6
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.20.8
-
3Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg58
40%
1.6
65+1
2.2
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.21.0
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo47
50%
1.8
32+1
1.2
25%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3330.80.5
-
5Sloga DobojSloga Doboj45
25%
1.2
12-1
0.8
25%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.20.5
-
6ČelikČelik54
20%
0.8
56-1
2.2
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.2
-
7Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo44
25%
1.0
36-3
2.2
100%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.81.5
-
8VeležVelež54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.81.8
-
9BSK Banja LukaBSK Banja Luka53
20%
0.6
47-3
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.81.4
-
10Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina53
0%
0.6
510-5
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.02.0
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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