Velež’s recent win over Sloga Doboj and Sloga’s defeat to Velež hint at a tightly contested cup tie, yet the model favours a home victory. The odds are split evenly, with a 37% chance of a Velež win, 26% for a draw and 37% for a Sloga win, and the most likely result is a home win. The expected total of 3.2 goals suggests a lively affair, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.5% probability. Velež averages one goal scored and 0.33 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Sloga concedes one goal and scores 0.5 away. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Under 5.5 (89.4%), Over 1.5 (84.0%), Home +2 handicap (81.1%) and Away +2 handicap (80.9%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
Velež extended their recent win streak with a 3-1 triumph over Sloga Doboj, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 37% probability and proved correct. The match delivered the expected 3-1 scoreline, matching the model’s most likely total of 3 goals. Every suggested selection settled in the same match: Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Under 5.5 (89.4%), Over 1.5 (84.0%), Home +2 handicap (81.1%) all hit, while Away +2 handicap (80.9%) missed. The model’s comprehensive set of picks performed impressively, with only one miss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Velež win✓ Hit
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.72
1.00
0.33
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
0.87
1.07
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.50
1.00
1.33
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.95
0.78
0.89
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.1%
Under 2.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.8%
Under 3.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.5%
0-1
5.5%
2-0
5.2%
0-2
5.2%
Velež goals ↓
Sloga Doboj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.5%
5.2%
2.8%
1.1%
1
5.5%
11%
8.3%
4.4%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.4%
6.7%
3.6%
1.4%
3
2.8%
4.5%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Sloga Doboj goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Posušje
2.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Kruševo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
Velež is 1.00 points better than Sloga Doboj in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Velež is 0.75 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.27
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Slavija
5.00
Velež is 0.25 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Velež or Draw✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Velež + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež or Sloga Doboj✓ Hit
74.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Velež + Sloga Doboj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sloga Doboj✗ Miss
62.6%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Draw + Sloga Doboj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Velež over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Velež, so a minus line means Velež give that many goals of a start and Sloga Doboj receive them. At -1, Velež must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Velež win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Velež)Actual: Draw
Velež -2
7.7%
Draw -2
11.4%
Sloga Doboj +2
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Velež)Actual: Velež
Velež -1
19.1%
Draw -1
18.3%
Sloga Doboj +1
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Velež)Actual: Velež
Velež +1
62.9%
Draw +1
18.2%
Sloga Doboj -1
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Velež)Actual: Velež
Velež +2
81.1%
Draw +2
11.3%
Sloga Doboj -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.33
0.27
0.33
0.27
0.33
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.55
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.22
0.22
0.11
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.45
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.45
0.67
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.50
0.78
0.22
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.27
0.60
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Banja Luka
Zrinjski
FK Sarajevo
Siroki Brijeg
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Radnik Bijeljina
Posušje
Rudar Prijedor