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Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 03/09/2023
Time: 17:45
Final 1-0
Velež
Velež
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L20W12L33D35L12L50W00D11D01LA·SIR26/04H·BOR01/05A·ZEL07/05H·IGM12/05H·FK 21/05A·POS28/05H·ZVI29/07H·GOŠ06/08H·SIR20/08A·FK 28/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.071.651.240.690.85
vs Stronger (10)0.901.201.331.670.250.50
vs Similar (15)1.401.272.001.570.881.00
vs Weaker (5)1.400.201.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W22D21W22D02L20W01L31W10WH·POS21/05A·SLO28/05H·DIN13/07A·DIN20/07H·NEF27/07A·NEF03/08H·BOR12/08A·POS19/08H·TUZ26/08H·IGM30/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.001.620.810.791.21
vs Stronger (5)0.601.401.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (13)1.311.001.860.860.671.17
vs Weaker (12)1.420.831.670.671.171.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0 ✓
11.1%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.8%
Velež goals ↓
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals →
01234
09.3%6.8%3.9%1.3%0.3%
111%13%6.0%2.0%0.5%
29.4%9.3%4.6%1.5%0.4%
34.8%4.7%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.8%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
Velež is 0.48 points better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Velež is 0.45 goals better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
Velež is 0.24 goals better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.09).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W01L31W12L11D30W00D01L00DA·SIR26/04H·BOR01/05A·ZEL07/05H·IGM12/05H·FK 21/05A·POS28/05H·ZVI29/07H·GOŠ06/08H·SIR20/08A·FK 28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.400.880.530.150.23
vs Stronger (10)0.300.600.500.830.000.25
vs Similar (15)0.730.401.290.570.250.25
vs Weaker (5)0.600.000.750.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L10W21W01L00D01L10W00DH·POS21/05A·SLO28/05H·DIN13/07A·DIN20/07H·NEF27/07A·NEF03/08H·BOR12/08A·POS19/08H·TUZ26/08H·IGM30/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.470.500.440.290.50
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.330.670.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.380.380.570.290.170.50
vs Weaker (12)0.500.420.500.500.500.33
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W11D02L23L01L20W00D10W01LA·SIR26/04H·BOR01/05A·ZEL07/05H·IGM12/05H·FK 21/05A·POS28/05H·ZVI29/07H·GOŠ06/08H·SIR20/08A·FK 28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.760.710.540.62
vs Stronger (10)0.600.600.830.830.250.25
vs Similar (15)0.670.870.711.000.620.75
vs Weaker (5)0.800.200.750.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D21W11D01L01L20W00D21W10WH·POS21/05A·SLO28/05H·DIN13/07A·DIN20/07H·NEF27/07A·NEF03/08H·BOR12/08A·POS19/08H·TUZ26/08H·IGM30/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.531.120.380.500.71
vs Stronger (5)0.400.600.670.330.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.920.621.290.570.500.67
vs Weaker (12)0.920.421.170.170.670.67
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
VEL wins
0
Draws
2
ZS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-1
22/10/22AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-0
05/08/22HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo3-1

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/23AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL1-0
20/08/23HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg1-1
06/08/23HVEL Vs GOŠK Gabela0-0
29/07/23HVEL Vs Zvijezda 095-0
28/05/23APosušje Vs VEL2-1
21/05/23HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo3-5
12/05/23HVEL Vs Igman Konjic3-3
07/05/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-1
01/05/23HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka2-0
26/04/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/23HZS Vs Igman Konjic1-0
26/08/23HZS Vs Tuzla City3-1
19/08/23APosušje Vs ZS1-0
12/08/23HZS Vs Borac Banja Luka2-0
03/08/23ANeftchi Baku Vs ZS2-0
27/07/23HZS Vs Neftchi Baku2-2
20/07/23ADinamo Minsk Vs ZS1-2
13/07/23HZS Vs Dinamo Minsk2-2
28/05/23ASloboda Tuzla Vs ZS1-2
21/05/23HZS Vs Posušje3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL1.28
HomeDLWDD1.57
AwayDLLLL0.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%38%22%
AVG goals2.232.861.50
Over 1.5 %56%67%44%
Over 2.5 %28%38%17%
Over 3.5 %21%38%0%
Scored1.181.710.56
Conceded1.051.140.94
BTTS38%48%28%
Clean Sheet38%43%33%
Corners9.00-9.00
Cards7.00-7.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.63
HomeDDWWW1.95
AwayDWWLL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%55%37%
AVG goals2.392.502.26
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %44%41%47%
Over 3.5 %22%27%16%
Scored1.321.640.95
Conceded1.070.861.32
BTTS54%55%53%
Clean Sheet27%36%16%
Corners10.008.0012.00
Cards5.004.007.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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