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Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 21/02/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Velež
Velež
Vs
46%
33%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Velež win✓ Hit
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W00D10W00D11D21W00D21W01LA·ZEL02/11H·RAD09/11A·POS23/11H·RUD29/11H·FK 02/12A·ZRI07/12A·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.971.070.801.001.13
vs Stronger (10)0.501.200.671.170.251.25
vs Similar (18)1.330.941.330.561.331.33
vs Weaker (2)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L12L12L33D04L00D00D01L40W03LH·VEL02/11A·ZRI09/11A·BOR29/11H·SIR04/12A·FK 07/12H·RAD13/12H·SLO17/12A·POS08/02H·SLA12/02H·RUD16/02
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.171.561.000.861.36
vs Stronger (4)1.751.502.501.001.002.00
vs Similar (13)1.151.461.671.170.711.71
vs Weaker (13)1.150.771.250.881.000.60
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.2%
Under 1.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.9%
Under 2.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.7%
Under 3.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.1%
No
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
16.3%
0-0
16.1%
1-1
14.0%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
4.6%
3-0
4.1%
Velež goals ↓
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals →
01234
016%9.4%3.9%0.9%0.2%
116%14%4.6%1.1%0.2%
210%7.5%2.7%0.7%0.1%
34.1%3.0%1.1%0.3%0.0%
41.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Velež goals (down), columns = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Velež is 0.25 points better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Velež is 0.06 goals better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Velež is 0.06 goals better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D00D00D00D01L10W00D10W01LA·ZEL02/11H·RAD09/11A·POS23/11H·RUD29/11H·FK 02/12A·ZRI07/12A·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.500.330.400.400.60
vs Stronger (10)0.100.700.170.670.000.75
vs Similar (18)0.500.440.440.220.560.67
vs Weaker (2)0.500.00--0.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W12L23L03L00D00D00D10W01LH·VEL02/11A·ZRI09/11A·BOR29/11H·SIR04/12A·FK 07/12H·RAD13/12H·SLO17/12A·POS08/02H·SLA12/02H·RUD16/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.440.620.360.93
vs Stronger (4)0.751.000.501.001.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.311.000.500.830.141.14
vs Weaker (13)0.380.460.380.380.400.60
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W00D10W00D10W11D00D11D00DA·ZEL02/11H·RAD09/11A·POS23/11H·RUD29/11H·FK 02/12A·ZRI07/12A·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.730.400.600.53
vs Stronger (10)0.400.500.500.500.250.50
vs Similar (18)0.830.500.890.330.780.67
vs Weaker (2)0.500.00--0.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L00D10W01L00D00D01L30W02LH·VEL02/11A·ZRI09/11A·BOR29/11H·SIR04/12A·FK 07/12H·RAD13/12H·SLO17/12A·POS08/02H·SLA12/02H·RUD16/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.401.120.380.500.43
vs Stronger (4)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.850.461.170.330.570.57
vs Weaker (13)0.770.310.880.500.600.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.570.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
VEL wins
0
Draws
4
ZS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · H/A from VEL
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL1-2
15/08/25HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0-1
25/05/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-1
10/11/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-1
10/08/24HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-2
29/03/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
08/12/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
03/09/23HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-0

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/02/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0
11/02/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg2-1
07/02/26HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka0-0
13/12/25ASloga Doboj Vs VEL1-2
07/12/25AZrinjski Vs VEL1-1
02/12/25HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo0-0
29/11/25HVEL Vs Rudar Prijedor1-0
23/11/25APosušje Vs VEL0-0
09/11/25HVEL Vs Radnik Bijeljina1-0
02/11/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL1-2

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/02/26HZS Vs Rudar Prijedor0-3
12/02/26HZS Vs Slavija4-0
08/02/26APosušje Vs ZS1-0
17/12/25HZS Vs Sloga Doboj0-0
13/12/25HZS Vs Radnik Bijeljina0-0
07/12/25AFK Sarajevo Vs ZS4-0
04/12/25HZS Vs Siroki Brijeg3-3
29/11/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs ZS2-1
09/11/25AZrinjski Vs ZS2-1
02/11/25HZS Vs Velež1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWL1.48
HomeWWDDW1.76
AwayWDDWL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%32%
AVG goals2.182.162.20
Over 1.5 %62%56%68%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %18%24%12%
Scored1.181.321.04
Conceded1.000.841.16
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet32%44%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.66
HomeDDDWL2.15
AwayWLLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%62%33%
AVG goals2.862.882.83
Over 1.5 %72%77%67%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.621.961.25
Conceded1.240.921.58
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet34%42%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2010.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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