The model favours an away win, with a 60 % chance for Aarhus Fremad to triumph over Vendsyssel FF. Home, draw and away probabilities stand at 15 %, 25 % and 60 % respectively, underscoring the clear advantage for the visitors. The expected total of goals is 2.5, and the most likely total is two, with a 27 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12.9 % chance, reflecting the tight nature of the contest. Vendsyssel, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Aarhus Fremad, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and none conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (98.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (95.7 %), Under 5.5 (95.5 %), Away +2 handicap (95.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.6 %) and Under 4.5 (88.6 %). All selections carry their own probabilities, with no additional edge percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vendsyssel FF win
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad win
60.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vendsyssel FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
1.07
1.13
1.33
1.53
vs Stronger (29)
1.24
1.28
1.14
1.00
1.33
1.53
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus Fremad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.71
0.86
1.31
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.04
1.25
0.83
1.14
1.21
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.50
4.50
1.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vendsyssel FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.9%
0-2
12.4%
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.0%
0-3
7.3%
1-3
5.6%
1-0
5.0%
Vendsyssel FF goals ↓
Aarhus Fremad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
13%
12%
7.3%
3.2%
1
5.0%
12%
9.5%
5.6%
2.5%
2
2.3%
4.1%
3.6%
2.2%
1.0%
3
0.6%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vendsyssel FF goals (down), columns = Aarhus Fremad goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Vendsyssel FF is 0.17 points worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Vendsyssel FF and Aarhus Fremad are level in goals scored per game (both 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Vendsyssel FF is 0.50 goals worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vendsyssel FF or Draw
39.7%
Avg Implied -
15%
25%
60%
covers Vendsyssel FF + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF or Aarhus Fremad
75.0%
Avg Implied -
15%
25%
60%
covers Vendsyssel FF + Aarhus Fremad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
85.3%
Avg Implied -
15%
25%
60%
covers Draw + Aarhus Fremad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 0.5
Over
53.5%
Under
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 1.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 2.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vendsyssel FF, so a minus line means Vendsyssel FF give that many goals of a start and Aarhus Fremad receive them. At -1, Vendsyssel FF must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vendsyssel FF win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vendsyssel FF)
Vendsyssel FF -2
1.0%
Draw -2
3.6%
Aarhus Fremad +2
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vendsyssel FF)
Vendsyssel FF -1
4.6%
Draw -1
10.1%
Aarhus Fremad +1
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vendsyssel FF)
Vendsyssel FF +1
39.7%
Draw +1
24.8%
Aarhus Fremad -1
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vendsyssel FF)
Vendsyssel FF +2
64.6%
Draw +2
19.0%
Aarhus Fremad -2
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vendsyssel FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (29)
0.62
0.69
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.93
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus Fremad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.57
0.36
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.42
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Vendsyssel FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
Under 0.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.1%
Under 1.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.4%
Under 2.5
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vendsyssel FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.53
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (29)
0.62
0.59
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.60
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus Fremad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.14
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.62
0.92
0.50
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vendsyssel FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.8%
Under 0.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.8%
Under 2.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Vendsyssel FF's squad is €2m less valuable than Aarhus Fremad's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Vendsyssel FF and Aarhus Fremad have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Vendsyssel FF and Aarhus Fremad have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Vendsyssel FF and Aarhus Fremad have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Hillerød
Esbjerg
HB Koge