Venezia are tipped to win, a 58 % chance of triumph against Palermo’s 17 % away win probability and 25 % draw odds. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 25 %. The single score most likely to materialise is a 1-1 draw, carrying an 11.7 % probability, distinct from the overall goal expectation. At home Venezia have been prolific, scoring 2.17 goals per game and conceding only 0.83 against teams of similar strength, while Palermo, on the road, average 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded versus comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 97.3 %, Over 21.5 fouls93.4 %, Over 23.5 fouls86.6 %, Over 2.5 cards84.6 %, Over 1.5 goals 77.1 %, Over 25.5 fouls76.3 %, Under 11.5 corners73.5 %, and Under 3.5 goals 70.4 %. Venezia’s recent form shows a win-draw-win-win pattern after a loss, while Palermo are on a two-game winning streak, both adding intrigue to a match that the model favours for the home side.
Results analysis
Venezia’s return to the home ground saw the win extend their recent run, while Palermo were on a two-game winning streak away. The model predicted a home win with 58 % confidence, and the result matched the forecast as Venezia edged Palermo 2-0. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 was not achieved, but the 2-0 outcome still fell within the model’s top probabilities. Every suggested selection was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 97.3 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 93.4 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 86.6 %, Over 2.5 cards at 84.6 %, Over 1.5 at 77.1 %, Over 25.5 fouls at 76.3 %, Under 11.5 corners at 73.5 %, and Under 3.5 at 70.4 %. All selections were hits, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Venezia win✓ Hit
58.4%
Avg Implied 57.1% · @ 1.61
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 3.96
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Palermo win✗ Miss
17.0%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.67
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Venezia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.87
2.43
0.64
1.94
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.93
0.87
2.17
0.83
1.78
0.89
vs Weaker (15)
2.40
0.87
2.62
0.50
2.14
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.93
2.27
0.73
1.20
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.77
1.04
2.31
0.85
1.23
1.23
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.65-4.3%
Under 2.5
48.2%
@ 2.11+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-0 ✓
10.9%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
6.7%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
4.8%
Venezia goals ↓
Palermo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.7%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.8%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.7%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Venezia goals (down), columns = Palermo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Venezia
2.16
Frosinone
2.13
Monza
1.98
Palermo
1.88
Catanzaro
1.58
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Cesena
1.21
Padova
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Bari
1.05
Reggiana
0.97
Spezia
0.92
Pescara
0.92
Venezia is 0.28 points better than Palermo in terms of average points per game (2.16 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
2.03
Frosinone
2.00
Catanzaro
1.63
Monza
1.60
Palermo
1.57
Pescara
1.34
Modena
1.26
Carrarese
1.24
Empoli
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Spezia
1.13
Avellino
1.10
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Bari
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Reggiana
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Venezia is 0.45 goals better than Palermo in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Venezia
0.82
Monza
0.88
Frosinone
0.89
Palermo
0.90
Modena
0.95
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Cesena
1.47
Reggiana
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Bari
1.50
Mantova
1.50
Spezia
1.55
Pescara
1.74
Venezia is 0.08 goals better than Palermo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 0.90).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Venezia
64%
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Monza
52%
Pescara
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Frosinone
50%
Palermo
49%
Spezia
48%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Bari
46%
Reggiana
41%
Sudtirol
41%
Venezia is 15.3 percentage points better than Palermo in terms of average possession (64% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Venezia
For 4.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 13.9 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Palermo
For 6.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 11.1 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Venezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.5
9.7
4.3
4.5
4.1
29.9
31.6
28.3
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
11.0
5.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
28.2
28.8
26.0
vs Similar (29)
8.8
7.9
9.4
4.3
5.0
3.8
30.6
34.4
27.6
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
8.1
10.9
4.7
4.4
5.0
29.2
28.4
30.0
% over line
46%
32%
60%
64%
72%
56%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
54%
68%
40%
36%
28%
44%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.4
10.1
4.6
4.5
4.8
27.9
27.3
28.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
9.5
9.1
9.9
4.8
4.6
5.0
28.6
28.0
29.3
vs Weaker (7)
11.6
12.0
11.2
3.9
3.7
4.0
23.7
22.3
24.8
% over line
56%
44%
68%
66%
64%
68%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
44%
56%
32%
34%
36%
32%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Pescara
10.6
Carrarese
10.4
Padova
10.1
Virtus Entella
10.1
Spezia
10.0
Frosinone
10.0
Palermo
9.8
Bari
9.8
Mantova
9.6
Empoli
9.5
Reggiana
9.3
Cesena
9.3
Juve Stabia
9.2
Avellino
9.2
Sampdoria
9.1
Venezia
9.1
Monza
9.1
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.9
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spezia
5.4
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.2
Carrarese
5.2
Pescara
5.1
Avellino
5.0
Juve Stabia
4.9
Modena
4.9
Reggiana
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Padova
4.8
Catanzaro
4.7
Bari
4.7
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.4
Empoli
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Monza
4.2
Cesena
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.9
Spezia
32.3
Juve Stabia
31.3
Avellino
31.2
Pescara
31.1
Sudtirol
30.5
Frosinone
30.5
Venezia
29.9
Catanzaro
29.8
Virtus Entella
29.8
Empoli
29.8
Reggiana
29.5
Padova
29.5
Modena
28.9
Carrarese
28.2
Bari
28.2
Palermo
27.9
Monza
27.1
Cesena
26.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.8%
Under 9.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.8%
Under 3.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.4%
Under 21.5
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Venezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.37
1.21
0.36
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.40
0.83
0.67
0.89
0.22
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.33
1.50
0.12
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
1.13
0.33
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.38
1.08
0.38
0.46
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Venezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Venezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.21
0.29
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.47
1.33
0.17
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.53
1.12
0.38
1.14
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.13
0.40
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.65
1.23
0.46
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Venezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (30)
€79m
FRO (40)
€55m
MON (34)
€49m
CAT (38)
€46m
SAM (33)
€41m
MOD (35)
€36m
EMP (38)
€36m
PAL (27)
€35m
SPE (40)
€34m
JS (39)
€34m
CES (32)
€28m
REG (43)
€26m
MAN (34)
€25m
CAR (33)
€25m
PES (43)
€22m
AVE (34)
€21m
SUD (33)
€20m
PAD (35)
€20m
BAR (28)
€18m
VE (44)
€16m
Venezia's squad is €44m more valuable than Palermo's (€79m vs €35m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAT (18)
€25m
FRO (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€17m
EMP (14)
€15m
VEN (6)
€15m
CES (9)
€15m
SAM (9)
€14m
MOD (8)
€9m
MAN (10)
€9m
BAR (11)
€9m
CAR (8)
€7m
SPE (6)
€7m
PAL (3)
€7m
PES (13)
€6m
JS (9)
€6m
AVE (11)
€5m
VE (13)
€5m
REG (12)
€5m
PAD (10)
€4m
SUD (7)
€3m
Venezia's attack is €8m more valuable than Palermo's (€15m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (10)
€35m
SPE (16)
€16m
JS (13)
€16m
PAL (11)
€16m
MON (8)
€13m
FRO (8)
€12m
CAT (5)
€12m
MOD (12)
€11m
PES (12)
€10m
EMP (8)
€7m
VE (13)
€7m
PAD (11)
€7m
AVE (7)
€6m
CAR (11)
€6m
SUD (10)
€5m
SAM (8)
€5m
BAR (7)
€5m
REG (11)
€4m
MAN (6)
€4m
CES (8)
€4m
Venezia's midfield is €20m more valuable than Palermo's (€35m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (14)
€28m
SAM (16)
€22m
FRO (18)
€21m
MON (15)
€20m
REG (20)
€17m
MOD (15)
€16m
EMP (16)
€13m
JS (17)
€12m
PAL (13)
€12m
MAN (18)
€12m
SUD (16)
€12m
CAR (14)
€11m
SPE (18)
€11m
CES (15)
€10m
CAT (15)
€9m
AVE (16)
€9m
PAD (14)
€9m
PES (18)
€6m
BAR (10)
€4m
VE (18)
€4m
Venezia's defence is €16m more valuable than Palermo's (€28m vs €12m).
Italy: Serie B 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →