VfB Stuttgart’s recent home form, with a 3.0 average of goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, points to a high-scoring outing, especially after a 1-5 loss to Bayern Munich that left the side eager to rebound. 1. FC Köln, meanwhile, averages a modest 0.5 goals scored and 2.75 conceded away, having just edged a 3-2 win over Hoffenheim. The model predicts a home win, with a 59% chance for Stuttgart, 22% for a draw and 19% for a Köln victory. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.9% probability. Stuttgart’s offensive potency and Köln’s defensive frailty suggest the 1-1 outcome is plausible. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, Under 6.5 at 95.5%, Home +2 handicap at 94.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.9%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.0%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
VfB Stuttgart win
59.9%
Avg Implied 62.9% · @ 1.50
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Dafabet
1.52
Draw
21.9%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.78
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.08
1xBet
5.08
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1. FC Köln win
18.2%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.46
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Pinnacle
5.69
1xBet
5.69
Marathonbet
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
VfB Stuttgart
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.60
1.81
1.19
2.43
2.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.33
0.33
3.00
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (20)
2.35
1.00
2.08
0.75
2.75
1.38
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Köln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.87
1.75
1.81
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.25
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (22)
1.64
1.64
2.00
1.67
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
@ 1.09-1.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
@ 6.72+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Under
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.0%
@ 1.36-5.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
@ 3.05+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.9%
@ 1.93-7.4%
Under 3.5
58.1%
@ 1.88+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
SBO
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Both teams to score
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.46-2.9%
No
39.0%
@ 2.58+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
No
Betfair
2.63
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 9.38+5.1%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.95+4.0%
2-0
8.6%@ 9.84+4.0%
1-0
7.1%@ 11.28+3.0%
3-1
7.1%@ 9.89+2.4%
3-0
6.2%@ 11.90+2.4%
2-2
5.6%@ 12.18+1.8%
1-2
5.1%@ 15.59+2.2%
VfB Stuttgart goals ↓
1. FC Köln goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
1
7.1%
10.0%
5.1%
1.9%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.2%
7.1%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.4%
3.8%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VfB Stuttgart goals (down), columns = 1. FC Köln goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfB Stuttgart is 0.88 points better than 1. FC Köln in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
VfB Stuttgart is 0.65 goals better than 1. FC Köln in terms of goals scored per game (2.09 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
VfB Stuttgart is 0.41 goals better than 1. FC Köln in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
VfB Stuttgart is 10.6 percentage points better than 1. FC Köln in terms of average possession (58% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
VfB Stuttgart
For 6.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Köln
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 8.8 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VfB Stuttgart
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.9
4.0
3.8
4.2
22.6
23.0
22.2
vs Stronger (7)
9.3
6.0
11.8
4.9
6.3
3.8
20.9
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (32)
10.6
11.5
9.7
3.7
3.4
3.9
23.2
23.6
22.8
vs Weaker (11)
8.8
8.4
9.2
4.4
3.4
5.2
22.0
22.0
22.0
% over line
56%
58%
54%
48%
50%
46%
56%
58%
54%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
52%
50%
54%
44%
42%
46%
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Köln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.6
4.2
4.1
4.3
20.5
21.1
20.0
vs Stronger (10)
11.4
10.6
12.2
3.1
3.0
3.2
16.9
17.8
16.0
vs Similar (34)
9.8
9.5
10.2
4.9
4.9
4.8
20.7
20.9
20.4
vs Weaker (6)
10.8
11.7
10.0
2.2
1.3
3.0
25.8
27.3
24.3
% over line
52%
44%
60%
58%
56%
60%
44%
56%
32%
% under line
48%
56%
40%
42%
44%
40%
56%
44%
68%
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.3%
@ 1.59-0.7%
Under 9.5
42.7%
@ 2.20+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Superbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.4%
@ 1.92+6.7%
Under 3.5
44.6%
@ 1.82-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.87
Under
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.73
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
35.5%
Under 21.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
VfB Stuttgart or Draw
85.6%
Avg Implied 82.2% · @ 1.15
Edge
+3.4%
60%
22%
18%
covers VfB Stuttgart + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
VfB Stuttgart or 1. FC Köln
79.2%
Avg Implied 80.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
-1.5%
60%
22%
18%
covers VfB Stuttgart + 1. FC Köln
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Draw or 1. FC Köln
35.2%
Avg Implied 37.2% · @ 2.54
Edge
-2.0%
60%
22%
18%
covers Draw + 1. FC Köln
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.63
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.61
Betfair
2.60
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5
Over
89.2%
@ 1.05+0.2%
Under
10.8%
@ 8.43-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
1xBet
8.00
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5
Over
65.1%
@ 1.35-3.9%
Under
34.9%
@ 3.00+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
10Bet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5
Over
38.4%
@ 2.13-5.5%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.67+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
VfB Stuttgart over/under 3.5
Over
18.5%
@ 3.89-5.4%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.22+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5
Over
62.3%
@ 1.35-6.6%
Under
37.7%
@ 2.99+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.19
Superbet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5
Over
25.5%
@ 2.71-8.9%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.42+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
@ 6.43-6.9%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.09+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
1. FC Köln over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
@ 16.94-3.9%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to VfB Stuttgart, so a minus line means VfB Stuttgart give that many goals of a start and 1. FC Köln receive them. At -1, VfB Stuttgart must win by two or more to land; a one-goal VfB Stuttgart win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (VfB Stuttgart)
VfB Stuttgart -2
22.8%
@ 3.72-1.6%
Draw -2
19.7%
@ 4.48-0.6%
1. FC Köln +2
57.5%
@ 1.64+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Handicap -1 (VfB Stuttgart)
VfB Stuttgart -1
42.5%
@ 2.16+0.5%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.94-0.7%
1. FC Köln +1
35.2%
@ 2.58+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Away
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Handicap +1 (VfB Stuttgart)
VfB Stuttgart +1
85.6%
@ 1.14+7.0%
Draw +1
9.3%
@ 6.96-3.5%
1. FC Köln -1
5.1%
@ 10.44-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
5.70
Handicap +2 (VfB Stuttgart)
VfB Stuttgart +2
94.9%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Draw +2
3.8%
@ 16.00-2.1%
1. FC Köln -2
1.3%
@ 30.00-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VfB Stuttgart
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
0.94
0.50
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.50
1.08
0.42
1.50
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Köln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.73
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.5%
@ 1.19-6.2%
Under 0.5
27.5%
@ 4.41+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
William Hil
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.2%
@ 1.95-12.2%
Under 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.82+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.01
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Unibet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.85
SBO
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 3.97-9.2%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.22+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.5%
@ 1.42-8.2%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.72+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.93
10Bet
2.85
1xBet
2.65
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.0%
@ 3.01-9.8%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.34+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.0%
@ 7.40-6.4%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.05+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.0%
@ 2.25-7.5%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.59+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
@ 7.33-5.5%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.06+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
@ 19.25-4.5%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VfB Stuttgart
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
0.88
0.69
1.14
1.14
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Köln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.07
1.19
1.00
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.91
1.33
0.92
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.4%
@ 1.10-2.5%
Under 0.5
17.6%
@ 6.21+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Betano
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.57-8.4%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 2.31+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Under
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.2%
@ 2.76-11.8%
Under 2.5
77.8%
@ 1.42+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.82
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.81
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5 2H
Over
70.1%
@ 1.28-2.8%
Under
29.9%
@ 3.43+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.30
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.5%
@ 2.30-4.9%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.56+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.4%
@ 5.09-9.8%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.13+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.25
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.7%
@ 1.86-9.2%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.85+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.3%
@ 5.25-7.4%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.13+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 13.88-4.8%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
Under 7.5
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
Under 6.5
95.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
+5.2%
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+6.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+5.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+6.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-
+9.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+7.4%
Under 5.5
89.5%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+7.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
89.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+0.2%
Under 25.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.22
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+9.2%
Home or Draw
85.6%
1.15
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
+3.4%
Home +1 handicap
85.6%
1.14
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+7.0%
Over 1.5
85.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
-1.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
81.5%
1.22
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
+5.4%
Under 5.5 cards
79.5%
1.20
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
-
-
-
+3.0%
Home or Away
79.2%
1.17
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
-1.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.0%
1.34
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+9.8%
Under 23.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.1%
1.36
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
+8.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
+11.8%
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.30
-
+7.8%
Away under 1.5 goals
74.5%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
+8.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.5%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-6.2%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.1%
1.28
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-2.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
VfB Stuttgart · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Deniz Undav47%
Ermedin Demirović35%
Tiago Tomás21%
Bilal El Khannouss20%
Chris Führich16%
Maximilian Mittelstädt14%
Jamie Leweling14%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Chema Andrés11%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Josha Vagnoman5%
Atakan Karazor5%
Luca Jaquez4%
Angelo Stiller4%
Lorenz Assignon3%
Dan Zagadou0%
Alexander Nübel0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeff Chabot0%
Ramon Hendriks0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Finn Jeltsch0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bilal El Khannouss27%
Jeff Chabot22%
Lorenz Assignon19%
Ermedin Demirović19%
Deniz Undav18%
Lazar Jovanović17%
Atakan Karazor16%
Chema Andrés16%
Finn Jeltsch14%
Tiago Tomás13%
Ameen Al-Dakhil12%
Maximilian Mittelstädt12%
Jamie Leweling12%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Ramon Hendriks10%
Luca Jaquez8%
Chris Führich8%
Josha Vagnoman8%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Angelo Stiller6%
Dan Zagadou0%
Alexander Nübel0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Deniz Undav27%
Jamie Leweling22%
Bilal El Khannouss17%
Chris Führich16%
Angelo Stiller16%
Maximilian Mittelstädt12%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Ermedin Demirović11%
Lorenz Assignon8%
Tiago Tomás8%
Ramon Hendriks6%
Josha Vagnoman5%
Alexander Nübel4%
Luca Jaquez4%
Badredine Bouanani4%
Finn Jeltsch3%
Atakan Karazor2%
Dan Zagadou0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeff Chabot0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Chema Andrés0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Deniz Undav56%
Dan Zagadou20%
Ermedin Demirović16%
Chris Führich14%
Jamie Leweling12%
Bilal El Khannouss12%
Tiago Tomás10%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Chema Andrés5%
Maximilian Mittelstädt4%
Nikolas Nartey3%
Josha Vagnoman3%
Jeff Chabot2%
Alexander Nübel0%
Atakan Karazor0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Ramon Hendriks0%
Angelo Stiller0%
Lorenz Assignon0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Finn Jeltsch0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
1. FC Köln · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Said El Mala36%
Ragnar Ache23%
Jakub Kamiński19%
Luca Waldschmidt19%
Marius Bülter15%
Jan Uwe Thielmann11%
Eric Martel9%
Linton Maina8%
Alessio Castro-Montes7%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson6%
Florian Kainz6%
Tom Krauß0%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Kristoffer Lund0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eric Martel36%
Joel Schmied28%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson18%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey18%
Sebastian Sebulonsen15%
Tom Krauß15%
Jan Uwe Thielmann15%
Alessio Castro-Montes14%
Said El Mala14%
Jakub Kamiński11%
Ragnar Ache10%
Marius Bülter9%
Cenk Özkaçar7%
Denis Huseinbašić6%
Marvin Schwäbe6%
Florian Kainz6%
Kristoffer Lund6%
Linton Maina4%
Luca Waldschmidt4%
Dominique Heintz0%
Timo Hübers0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ragnar Ache16%
Luca Waldschmidt15%
Alessio Castro-Montes14%
Said El Mala11%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson9%
Marius Bülter9%
Jakub Kamiński8%
Tom Krauß7%
Rav van den Berg7%
Eric Martel6%
Florian Kainz6%
Kristoffer Lund6%
Jan Uwe Thielmann4%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Linton Maina0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ragnar Ache23%
Jakub Kamiński22%
Said El Mala19%
Marius Bülter12%
Youssoupha Niang10%
Linton Maina8%
Luca Waldschmidt8%
Jan Uwe Thielmann7%
Florian Kainz6%
Tom Krauß0%
Alessio Castro-Montes0%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Kristoffer Lund0%
Eric Martel0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
VfB Stuttgart's squad is €297m more valuable than 1. FC Köln's (€430m vs €133m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
VfB Stuttgart's attack is €122m more valuable than 1. FC Köln's (€193m vs €72m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
VfB Stuttgart's midfield is €74m more valuable than 1. FC Köln's (€92m vs €19m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
VfB Stuttgart's defence is €102m more valuable than 1. FC Köln's (€145m vs €43m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04