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VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 0-1
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Vs
10%
14%
75%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bayern München
Bayern München
Germany: Bundesliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives VfL Wolfsburg a 10% win probability against Bayern München in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-09, with 14% for the draw and 75% for Bayern München. The model estimates around 4.2 total goals, with 6+ the most likely total (25%) and 1-3 the most likely scoreline (8.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (93%), Over 2.5 (79%), Away win (75%).

Results analysis

VfL Wolfsburg finished 0-1 against Bayern München (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 10% home win, 14% draw and 75% away win. Picks that landed: Away win (75%). Missed: Over 1.5 (93%), Over 2.5 (79%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

VfL Wolfsburg win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.28
Edge
-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.48
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bayern München win✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 57.5% · @ 1.62
Edge
+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-623L04L12L11D01L36L12L21W00D11DH·FC 21/02A·VFB01/03H·HAM07/03A·18914/03H·WER21/03A·BAY04/04H·EIN11/04A·UNI18/04H·BOR25/04A·SC 03/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.171.332.001.202.33
vs Stronger (7)1.143.290.672.001.504.25
vs Similar (23)1.301.831.502.001.091.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bayern MünchenBayern München

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W32W21W50W43W42W43W45L33D11DH·UNI21/03A·SC 04/04A·REA07/04A·FC 11/04H·REA15/04H·VFB19/04A·FSV25/04A·PAR28/04H·1. 02/05H·PAR06/05
Avg total
5.4
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.431.373.401.403.471.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)2.802.202.671.673.003.00
vs Weaker (25)3.561.203.581.333.541.08
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%2%05%114%218%320%416%525%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
92.9%
Under 1.5
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
79.4%
@ 1.26+4.6%
Under 2.5
20.6%
@ 3.74-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.0%
Under 3.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-3
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
0-3
7.1%
0-2
6.9%
1-4
6.3%
1-1
5.7%
0-4
5.5%
2-3
4.7%
VfL Wolfsburg goals ↓
Bayern München goals →
01234
02.0%4.0%6.9%7.1%5.5%
11.2%5.7%8.0%8.2%6.3%
21.0%3.0%4.6%4.7%3.6%
30.4%1.1%1.7%1.8%1.4%
40.1%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VfL Wolfsburg goals (down), columns = Bayern München goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
VfL Wolfsburg is 1.78 points worse than Bayern München in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 2.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
VfL Wolfsburg is 2.31 goals worse than Bayern München in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 3.59).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
VfL Wolfsburg is 0.91 goals worse than Bayern München in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.06).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
VfL Wolfsburg is 22.0 percentage points worse than Bayern München in terms of average possession (45% vs 67%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

For 5.4 · Against 7.6 · Total 13.0

🚩 Corners

2007185411772128441673374108131514141220101014A·SC H·BORA·UNIH·EINA·BAYH·WERA·189H·HAMA·VFBH·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

70111411213143431342523443717A·SC H·BORA·UNIH·EINA·BAYH·WERA·189H·HAMA·VFBH·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 8.2 · Total 21.0

⚠️ Fouls

2801151151513981181661010186175101616162817192220242226A·SC H·BORA·UNIH·EINA·BAYH·WERA·189H·HAMA·VFBH·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Bayern MünchenBayern München

For 7.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 11.9

🚩 Corners

1901813552441139243118851219187814117191313H·PARH·1. A·PARA·FSVH·VFBH·REAA·FC A·REAA·SC H·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2

🟨 Cards

9033323211821413312636533935639H·PARH·1. A·PARA·FSVH·REAA·FC A·REAA·SC H·UNIA·BAY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 9.8 · Total 18.8

⚠️ Fouls

24011126710121014631012791212139582313222492216242213H·PARH·1. A·PARA·FSVH·VFBH·REAA·FC A·REAA·SC H·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.311.211.33.64.23.020.421.319.6
vs Stronger (11)11.012.89.53.13.82.518.620.017.5
vs Similar (39)11.310.811.93.84.33.220.921.620.3
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line72%80%64%50%60%40%44%52%36%
% under line28%20%36%50%40%60%56%48%64%
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bayern MünchenBayern München

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.610.19.23.63.24.018.717.619.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (7)10.09.010.85.06.04.221.720.322.8
vs Weaker (43)9.610.38.93.42.84.018.217.219.3
% over line46%52%40%50%44%56%36%24%48%
% under line54%48%60%50%56%44%64%76%52%
This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.3
RB Leipzig
10.5
1. FC Köln
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
Hamburger SV
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
VfB Stuttgart
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.8
Bayern München
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.5
Union Berlin
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Werder Bremen
9.3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.3
Werder Bremen
4.7
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Bayern München
4.0
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
1899 Hoffenheim
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.7
FC St. Pauli
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
22.8
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
FSV Mainz 05
22.1
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.9
1. FC Heidenheim
21.5
Werder Bremen
21.0
1. FC Köln
20.8
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
FC St. Pauli
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
RB Leipzig
20.0
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.6%
Under 9.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.6%
Under 3.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
37.8%
Under 21.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.579.4%1.26-----+4.6%✗ Miss
Away win75.3%1.62-----+17.8%✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (35)
€619m
BD (33)
€500m
VS (34)
€448m
EF (30)
€357m
VW (33)
€201m
HS (33)
€177m
WB (32)
€168m
BM (33)
€162m
FM0 (31)
€154m
UB (29)
€130m
SP0 (31)
€53m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (15)
€346m
VS (11)
€210m
EF (14)
€183m
BD (9)
€170m
VW (9)
€78m
BM (13)
€64m
HS (15)
€58m
FM0 (10)
€50m
WB (9)
€47m
UB (9)
€37m
SP0 (11)
€10m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (7)
€122m
RL (7)
€104m
VS (6)
€88m
FM0 (6)
€62m
BM (8)
€51m
EF (4)
€50m
WB (5)
€30m
UB (6)
€25m
VW (6)
€25m
HS (2)
€21m
SP0 (9)
€21m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (17)
€208m
RL (13)
€168m
VS (17)
€150m
EF (12)
€124m
VW (18)
€98m
HS (16)
€98m
WB (18)
€91m
UB (14)
€68m
BM (12)
€47m
FM0 (15)
€42m
SP0 (11)
€22m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München · H/A from VW
DateH/AGameScore
11/01/26ABayern München Vs VW8-1
18/01/25ABayern München Vs VW3-2
25/08/24HVW Vs Bayern München2-3
12/05/24ABayern München Vs VW2-0
20/12/23HVW Vs Bayern München1-2
05/02/23HVW Vs Bayern München2-4
14/08/22ABayern München Vs VW2-0
14/05/22HVW Vs Bayern München2-2

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/26ASC Freiburg Vs VW1-1
25/04/26HVW Vs Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0
18/04/26AUnion Berlin Vs VW1-2
11/04/26HVW Vs Eintracht Frankfurt1-2
04/04/26ABayer Leverkusen Vs VW6-3
21/03/26HVW Vs Werder Bremen0-1
14/03/26A1899 Hoffenheim Vs VW1-1
07/03/26HVW Vs Hamburger SV1-2
01/03/26AVfB Stuttgart Vs VW4-0
21/02/26HVW Vs FC Augsburg2-3

Bayern MünchenBayern München

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HBM Vs Paris Saint Germain1-1
02/05/26HBM Vs 1. FC Heidenheim3-3
28/04/26AParis Saint Germain Vs BM5-4
25/04/26AFSV Mainz 05 Vs BM3-4
19/04/26HBM Vs VfB Stuttgart4-2
15/04/26HBM Vs Real Madrid4-3
11/04/26AFC St. Pauli Vs BM0-5
07/04/26AReal Madrid Vs BM1-2
04/04/26ASC Freiburg Vs BM2-3
21/03/26HBM Vs Union Berlin4-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Germany: Bundesliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD0.90
HomeLLLLD0.72
AwayLDLWD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%12%28%
AVG goals3.163.083.24
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %60%60%60%
Over 3.5 %42%40%44%
Scored1.301.361.24
Conceded1.861.722.00
BTTS70%72%68%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners11.2611.2011.32
Cards3.714.243.17
Bayern München
Bayern München
Germany: Bundesliga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDD2.54
HomeWWWDD2.64
AwayWWWWL2.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %80%84%76%
AVG goals4.584.564.60
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %92%88%96%
Over 3.5 %72%72%72%
Scored3.423.563.28
Conceded1.161.001.32
BTTS68%64%72%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners9.6410.129.16
Cards4.003.434.59

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Bayern MünchenBayern München3489
82%
2.6
12236+86
4.6
97%
94%
76%
9.9
53%
3.7
45%
17.8
32%
0
0003.61.1
67%
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund3473
65%
2.1
7034+36
3.1
85%
56%
32%
9.5
44%
3.8
58%
21.9
59%
500
1701222082.11.0
53%
3RB LeipzigRB Leipzig3465
59%
1.9
6647+19
3.3
85%
71%
47%
9.6
53%
3.3
44%
19.6
29%
619
3461041681.91.4
54%
4VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart3462
53%
1.8
7149+22
3.5
85%
74%
53%
9.9
56%
3.7
45%
21.9
53%
448
210881502.11.4
58%
51899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim3461
53%
1.8
6552+13
3.4
85%
71%
50%
10.6
65%
4.1
64%
22.9
68%
0
0001.91.5
55%
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen3459
50%
1.7
6847+21
3.4
85%
59%
41%
9.7
59%
4.9
59%
19.8
38%
0
0002.01.4
59%
7SC FreiburgSC Freiburg3447
38%
1.4
5157-6
3.2
82%
65%
38%
8.3
35%
3.8
50%
21.5
41%
0
0001.51.7
48%
8Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt3444
32%
1.3
6165-4
3.7
88%
68%
53%
9.2
50%
4.3
56%
20.1
38%
357
183501241.81.9
55%
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg3443
35%
1.3
4561-16
3.1
85%
62%
41%
10.2
56%
4.5
70%
22.6
65%
0
0001.31.8
44%
10FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 053440
29%
1.2
4453-9
2.9
82%
53%
32%
9.6
50%
4.2
62%
21.0
44%
154
5062421.31.6
44%
11Union BerlinUnion Berlin3439
29%
1.1
4458-14
3.0
76%
62%
47%
9.8
53%
4.3
58%
22.3
47%
130
3725681.31.7
40%
12Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach3438
26%
1.1
4253-11
2.8
71%
53%
38%
8.6
38%
4.2
50%
21.8
50%
162
6451471.21.6
47%
13Hamburger SVHamburger SV3438
26%
1.1
4054-14
2.8
79%
56%
32%
9.5
47%
5.2
73%
24.5
74%
177
5821981.21.6
45%
141. FC Köln1. FC Köln3432
21%
0.9
4963-14
3.3
85%
65%
47%
10.1
50%
4.6
66%
18.7
35%
0
0001.41.9
47%
15Werder BremenWerder Bremen3432
24%
0.9
3760-23
2.9
79%
53%
35%
9.5
56%
4.2
61%
19.5
32%
168
4730911.11.8
51%
16VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg3630
19%
0.8
4671-25
3.2
78%
64%
42%
11.9
72%
3.9
50%
20.6
44%
201
7825981.32.0
45%
171. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim3426
18%
0.8
4172-31
3.3
91%
68%
41%
9.6
41%
3.7
50%
20.1
38%
0
0001.22.1
42%
18FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli3426
18%
0.8
2960-31
2.6
82%
56%
21%
9.9
56%
3.4
44%
19.0
24%
0
0000.91.8
44%
19SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0724
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
13.0
50%
8.0
100%
24.5
50%
53
1021221.00.5
52%
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →

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