Vicenza Virtus are tipped to win this Serie B clash, with a 53% chance of triumph, a 25% draw probability and a 22% chance for Virtus Entella. The model expects three goals on average, but the most likely total is two, a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.6% probability, even though the final result ended 0-1 in favour of the visitors. At home Vicenza has been scoring and conceding about 1.09 goals against similar opposition, while Entella, on the road, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (98.9%), Over 21.5 fouls (97.1%), Over 2.5 cards (93.3%), Over 23.5 fouls (93.2%), Over 25.5 fouls (86.6%), Over 3.5 cards (84.0%), Over 1.5 (81.1%) and Over 4.5 cards (70.2%). The home side’s win chance is 53%, the draw 25%, and the away win 22%.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Vicenza Virtus fell to a 0-1 defeat, a result that stunned the pre-match favourite, Home win, which the model had assigned a 53% probability to. The prediction was wrong. The match saw the model’s selection of Over 19.5 fouls hit with a 98.9% probability, as did Over 21.5 fouls (97.1%), Over 2.5 cards (93.3%), Over 23.5 fouls (93.2%), Over 25.5 fouls (86.6%), Over 3.5 cards (84.0%) and Over 4.5 cards (70.2%). The only miss was Over 1.5, which the model had given an 81.1% chance. Vicenza’s recent form, after a 0-3 loss, and Virtus Entella’s 1-2 defeat at Cesena, set the stage for the surprising away victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vicenza Virtus win✗ Miss
53.2%
Avg Implied 49.0% · @ 1.91
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.37
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella win✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 4.04
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vicenza Virtus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.50
1.29
1.29
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.73
2.00
2.00
1.12
1.62
vs Similar (19)
1.00
1.37
1.09
1.09
0.88
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.83
1.00
1.88
1.00
1.79
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
2.40
1.00
3.25
1.17
1.83
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.55
1.00
1.42
0.88
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vicenza Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.95+9.0%
Under 2.5
42.5%
@ 1.84-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
Vicenza Virtus goals ↓
Virtus Entella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.6%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.3%
12%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.4%
6.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vicenza Virtus goals (down), columns = Virtus Entella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Empoli
1.92
Salernitana
1.82
Monza
1.68
Lecce
1.63
Venezia
1.55
Cittadella
1.50
Chievo
1.47
Spal
1.47
Brescia
1.47
Frosinone
1.32
Reggina
1.32
Cremonese
1.26
Pisa
1.26
Vicenza Virtus
1.26
Pordenone
1.18
Ascoli
1.16
Cosenza
0.92
Reggiana
0.89
Pescara
0.84
Virtus Entella
0.61
Vicenza Virtus is 0.66 points better than Virtus Entella in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 0.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lecce
1.79
Empoli
1.79
Brescia
1.61
Pisa
1.42
Venezia
1.39
Monza
1.34
Chievo
1.32
Cittadella
1.26
Vicenza Virtus
1.26
Cremonese
1.21
Salernitana
1.21
Spal
1.16
Reggina
1.11
Pordenone
1.05
Frosinone
1.00
Ascoli
0.97
Reggiana
0.82
Virtus Entella
0.79
Pescara
0.76
Cosenza
0.76
Vicenza Virtus is 0.47 goals better than Virtus Entella in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Monza
0.87
Salernitana
0.89
Empoli
0.92
Cittadella
0.92
Chievo
0.97
Pordenone
1.03
Venezia
1.03
Frosinone
1.11
Spal
1.11
Cremonese
1.16
Reggina
1.18
Lecce
1.24
Cosenza
1.24
Ascoli
1.26
Brescia
1.39
Vicenza Virtus
1.39
Reggiana
1.50
Pisa
1.55
Pescara
1.58
Virtus Entella
1.68
Vicenza Virtus is 0.29 goals better than Virtus Entella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vicenza Virtus
For 4.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 15.8 · Total 31.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Virtus Entella
For 4.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.3 · Against 12.8 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vicenza Virtus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
12.2
9.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
32.0
35.2
29.6
vs Stronger (17)
9.0
7.0
9.4
1.9
1.5
2.2
31.3
43.0
29.0
vs Similar (33)
11.5
13.2
8.7
1.4
1.7
1.1
32.5
33.6
30.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
67%
25%
26%
25%
27%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
57%
33%
75%
74%
75%
73%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.0
5.6
5.0
6.1
30.5
31.8
29.3
vs Stronger (16)
9.9
10.6
9.2
5.0
4.6
5.4
31.4
30.4
32.4
vs Similar (34)
9.0
9.1
8.8
5.8
5.2
6.4
30.1
32.4
27.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
48%
48%
86%
84%
88%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
14%
16%
12%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Vicenza Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecce
12.0
Cosenza
10.8
Pordenone
10.6
Monza
10.5
Vicenza Virtus
10.4
Spal
10.3
Empoli
10.3
Cittadella
10.2
Frosinone
10.1
Cremonese
10.0
Brescia
10.0
Reggina
9.8
Venezia
9.7
Virtus Entella
9.3
Pisa
9.3
Salernitana
9.0
Reggiana
9.0
Ascoli
8.9
Pescara
8.8
Chievo
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Reggina
7.2
Pisa
6.2
Salernitana
6.2
Ascoli
6.0
Cosenza
5.8
Vicenza Virtus
5.7
Reggiana
5.6
Virtus Entella
5.6
Venezia
5.5
Pordenone
5.5
Brescia
5.5
Cittadella
5.5
Chievo
5.4
Pescara
5.4
Spal
5.2
Monza
5.1
Lecce
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Cremonese
4.7
Empoli
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
36.4
Salernitana
34.3
Cittadella
33.0
Frosinone
32.9
Pisa
32.7
Reggiana
32.5
Venezia
32.1
Vicenza Virtus
32.0
Chievo
31.3
Ascoli
31.0
Cosenza
31.0
Pordenone
30.9
Virtus Entella
30.5
Pescara
30.2
Monza
29.9
Empoli
29.4
Brescia
29.2
Spal
29.1
Cremonese
27.8
Lecce
25.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.2%
Under 9.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
84.0%
Under 3.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.1%
Under 21.5
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vicenza Virtus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.73
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.62
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.42
0.55
0.27
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.56
0.75
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.90
0.25
0.50
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.60
0.67
0.83
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vicenza Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vicenza Virtus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vicenza Virtus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vicenza Virtus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vicenza Virtus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.71
0.86
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.00
1.33
1.00
0.62
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.95
0.55
0.82
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.13
0.44
1.12
0.64
1.14
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.50
0.75
2.75
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.95
0.33
0.58
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vicenza Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vicenza Virtus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vicenza Virtus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vicenza Virtus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Virtus Entella · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrea Tiritiello33%
Bernat Guiu33%
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Parodi33%
Bernat Guiu33%
Niccolò Squizzato33%
Stefano Di Mario33%
Francesco Forte0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Andrea Franzoni0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Bernat Guiu0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bernat Guiu33%
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
PIS (36)
€71m
MON (29)
€70m
CRE (30)
€49m
EMP (27)
€20m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
REG (27)
€8m
Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella have a similar squad value (both €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
PIS (13)
€24m
LEC (9)
€20m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
ASC (11)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
REG (6)
€1m
Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (11)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
PIS (9)
€26m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
CRE (10)
€15m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
VV (12)
€5m
ASC (6)
€3m
REG (9)
€2m
PES (6)
€1m
Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella have a similar midfield value (both €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€20m
REG (12)
€4m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Vicenza Virtus's defence is €2m more valuable than Virtus Entella's (€4m vs €2m).
Italy: Serie B 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Empoli
Salernitana
Monza
Lecce
Venezia
Cittadella
Brescia
Spal
Reggina
Frosinone
Cremonese
Pisa
Ascoli
Cosenza
Reggiana
Pescara