Victoria Bardar and Fălești are locked in a tight contest, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 3.0 goals sits above the model’s most likely total of 2, which carries a 23 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.2 % probability. Bardar’s home form against weaker opposition shows an average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Fălești’s away form against stronger teams averages 1.0 scored and 3.0 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 39 % for a home win, 26 % for a draw, and 34 % for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (98.8 %), Under 6.5 (96.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.5 %), Under 5.5 (91.4 %), Home +2 handicap (83.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (82.1 %), and Over 1.5 (81.5 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Victoria Bardar win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Făleşti win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Victoria Bardar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.63
1.25
2.38
1.07
2.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
2.06
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.14
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
3.29
1.57
2.86
1.14
3.71
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.17
1.07
2.13
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
3.00
0.62
2.75
0.83
3.33
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.50
1.60
1.60
1.00
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
6.8%
1-0
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
0-2
5.8%
Victoria Bardar goals ↓
Făleşti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.8%
5.8%
2.8%
1.0%
1
6.7%
13%
8.4%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.4%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.8%
4.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Victoria Bardar goals (down), columns = Făleşti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Victoria Bardar is 0.05 points worse than Făleşti in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 0.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Victoria Bardar is 0.09 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Victoria Bardar is 0.36 goals worse than Făleşti in terms of goals conceded per game (2.91 vs 2.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Victoria Bardar or Draw
63.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Victoria Bardar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar or Făleşti
73.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Victoria Bardar + Făleşti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Făleşti
63.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Făleşti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Victoria Bardar, so a minus line means Victoria Bardar give that many goals of a start and Făleşti receive them. At -1, Victoria Bardar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Victoria Bardar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Victoria Bardar)
Victoria Bardar -2
6.6%
Draw -2
11.0%
Făleşti +2
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Victoria Bardar)
Victoria Bardar -1
17.6%
Draw -1
18.6%
Făleşti +1
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Victoria Bardar)
Victoria Bardar +1
63.2%
Draw +1
18.8%
Făleşti -1
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Victoria Bardar)
Victoria Bardar +2
81.9%
Draw +2
11.2%
Făleşti -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Victoria Bardar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.23
0.38
1.25
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.81
0.44
1.11
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
1.71
0.29
1.43
0.71
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.40
1.00
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
Under 0.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.6%
Under 1.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.4%
Under 2.5
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Victoria Bardar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.40
0.88
1.12
0.43
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
1.25
0.56
0.89
0.43
1.71
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
1.57
1.29
1.43
0.43
1.71
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.67
1.13
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.71
0.38
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.7%
Under 0.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.6%
Under 1.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.4%
Under 2.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
FC National Ialoveni
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti