This matchup between Victoria Bardar and Oguzsport in Moldova's Liga 1 is finely balanced, with Victoria Bardar struggling to find form after three consecutive defeats, while Oguzsport is on a two-game winning streak. The model predicts an away win, which aligns with the probabilities: Oguzsport has a 37% chance of winning, Victoria Bardar a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 12.6% of the time. Victoria Bardar has scored an average of 1 goal at home and conceded 2.25, whereas Oguzsport scores 1.27 goals away and concedes 1.82 when facing stronger opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.3% probability of occurring. The home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 37%.
Results analysis
Victoria Bardar's win extends their run of three straight defeats, but the real story is Oguzsport's resurgence, having just ended a two-game winning streak. The final score was 0-1, with Oguzsport securing the away win, a result that matches the model's call. The model picked Oguzsport to win, with a pre-match probability of 37%. This selection was correct, as the model's call was not wrong. However, several other selections were not as accurate. The model's selection of Oguzsport to win had a probability of 37%, while the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals had a probability of 80.3%, but it missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Victoria Bardar win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport win✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Victoria Bardar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.73
1.29
2.57
1.62
2.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.30
3.40
1.25
3.50
1.33
3.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
2.39
1.33
2.11
2.00
2.67
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.21
1.79
1.18
1.91
1.23
1.69
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.64
1.00
1.50
1.57
1.71
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.44
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1 ✓
6.7%
1-0
6.6%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
Victoria Bardar goals ↓
Oguzsport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.7%
5.8%
2.8%
1.1%
1
6.6%
13%
8.4%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.3%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.8%
4.1%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Victoria Bardar goals (down), columns = Oguzsport goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Spartanii Selemet
1.78
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Victoria Bardar is 0.18 points worse than Oguzsport in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.32
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Victoria Bardar is 0.14 goals better than Oguzsport in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.49
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Victoria Bardar is 1.27 goals worse than Oguzsport in terms of goals conceded per game (2.91 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Victoria Bardar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.29
1.43
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.60
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
1.11
0.22
1.33
1.11
0.89
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
1.04
0.55
1.27
0.54
0.85
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.91
0.25
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.78
0.60
1.20
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
42% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Victoria Bardar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.00
1.14
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.80
0.75
2.00
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
1.28
1.11
0.78
0.89
1.78
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.75
0.64
0.64
0.69
0.85
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.73
0.75
0.75
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
42% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Făleşti
FC Stăuceni
Univer Comrat
Zimbru II
FC National Ialoveni
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti