The model favours a Vihren victory, with a 57% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of a Nesebar win. The average goal count is 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 11.9% probability. Vihren, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 4.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, while Nesebar, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.00 goal scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), Home +2 handicap (93.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.0%), and Under 4.5 (86.0%). Vihren’s recent unbeaten run of five games, ending in a 2-2 draw with Fratria, contrasts with Nesebar’s recent draw, 1-1 against Yantra 2019, suggesting a high-scoring home encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vihren win
61.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nesebar win
14.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vihren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.07
2.38
0.88
1.64
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.78
0.67
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
2.60
1.20
3.14
1.14
2.12
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.40
1.33
0.67
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.43
1.27
1.55
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
1-0
11.4%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
3-1
6.2%
0-1
4.3%
Vihren goals ↓
Nesebar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.3%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.2%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.6%
6.2%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.6%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vihren goals (down), columns = Nesebar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Vihren is 0.71 points better than Nesebar in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Vihren is 0.29 goals better than Nesebar in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Vihren is 0.43 goals better than Nesebar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vihren or Draw
85.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
14%
covers Vihren + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vihren or Nesebar
76.4%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
14%
covers Vihren + Nesebar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nesebar
38.1%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
14%
covers Draw + Nesebar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vihren over/under 0.5
Over
85.2%
Under
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 3.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vihren, so a minus line means Vihren give that many goals of a start and Nesebar receive them. At -1, Vihren must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vihren win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vihren)
Vihren -2
18.4%
Draw -2
19.4%
Nesebar +2
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vihren)
Vihren -1
37.9%
Draw -1
24.1%
Nesebar +1
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vihren)
Vihren +1
85.5%
Draw +1
9.8%
Nesebar -1
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vihren)
Vihren +2
95.3%
Draw +2
3.6%
Nesebar -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vihren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.88
0.25
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.27
0.44
0.33
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.40
1.43
0.14
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.65
0.45
0.64
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vihren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vihren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.50
0.62
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.67
1.33
0.33
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.80
1.71
1.00
1.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.78
0.82
0.91
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vihren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →